Will geopolitical shifts push India, Pakistan towards cautious diplomacy?

Calls by hardline Indian political figures to resume backchannel talks with Pakistan, a year after their latest conflict, reflect the realisation that both countries cannot afford another war for the time being, analysts say. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) secretary general Dattatreya Hosabale’s push earlier this week for so-called Track 2 diplomatic engagement with Pakistan has raised hopes for a reduction in the tensions between the two countries. In an Indian media interview on Wednesday, Hosabale said there “should always be a window for dialogue” between New Delhi and Islamabad. Though non-political, RSS has a lot of clout as the ideological inspiration for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. Hopes were further raised after former Indian army chief of staff Manoj Naravane endorsed Hosabale’s call for “people-to-people” contact between civil society organisations of both countries. Since their brief air skirmish in May last year, India and Pakistan have reportedly held four rounds of backchannel talks between quasi-official representatives. “It’s too soon to say whether the recent indications of openness to engagement will translate to meaningful steps, but it is notable that the two sides seem inclined to find quiet means of communicating,” said Elizabeth Threlkeld, director of the South Asia programme at Washington think tank Stimson Centre. Threlkeld, a former US State Department official, said the recent calls for dialogue echo previous India-Pakistan crises that have been followed by diplomatic outreach – although their relationship remains at a very low level with reduced diplomatic presence, very few people-to-people contacts, and only indirect trade. Both countries have got a lot on their plate – including the economic fallout of the US-Israel war with Iran, insecurity on their borders and broader geopolitical shifts – “which could augur [well] for seeking stability within the neighbourhood”. Were it not for these challenges, “threat perceptions remain elevated” with mutual accusations of support for terrorist proxies and accelerated military acquisitions, Threlkeld said. Cautious friendship This was clear from Hosabale’s interview with the Press Trust of India. Delhi, he said, should continue to respond militarily to any cross-border attacks by Pakistani militant groups which have been fighting Indian forces in disputed Kashmir since the early 1990s. “If Pakistan keeps trying to create incidents, then we have to answer appropriately,” Hosabale said, referring to the February 2019 suicide bombing that killed 40 Indian security personnel in Kashmir’s Pulwama region. The incident prompted the first Indian air strike against Pakistan since 1971. But “we should not close the doors … we should always be ready to engage in dialogue”, he said, adding that bilateral diplomatic ties, trade relations and visa services should resume because they provided opportunities for future talks. Naravane agreed, saying that civilians living on both sides of the border shared concerns focused on daily life and generally did not have much to do with politics. “When friendship develops between the people of two countries, it naturally helps improve relations between the countries themselves,” he said. Hosabale also lauded the announcement by India’s sports ministry on May 7 that Pakistani players would be allowed to take part in international events in India, ending a decade-long practice that saw both sides play matches at neutral venues. But a 12-year ban on bilateral cricket series – a long-standing bellwether for diplomatic relations – would remain in place, the ministry said. Accordingly, Jay Shah, the Indian chairman of the International Cricket Council, on Saturday invited the head of the Pakistan Cricket Board Mohsin Naqvi to attend the final of the world-leading Indian Premier League later this month. If accepted, a meeting between the two in the western Indian city of Ahmedabad would carry symbolic political significance, as Naqvi is also Pakistan’s interior minister, while Shah is the son of Indian home minister Amit Shah. Pakistan’s ministry of foreign affairs described the calls for dialogue as “obviously a positive development”. “We hope that sanity will prevail in India, and warmongering … will fade away and pave the way for more such voices,” spokesman Tahir Andrabi told reporters in Islamabad on Thursday. India’s government, which was busy hosting the Brics summit in Delhi this week, has yet to comment on Hosabale’s remarks. Historical precedents According to Michael Kugelman, senior South Asia fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council, the history of post-conflict relations between India and Pakistan “does suggest we will see some semblance of a stabilisation in ties, at least for a limited period of time”. The recent signals indicated towards “a reduction of tensions, or at least an implied agreement on both sides that neither side can afford an escalation right now”, he said. A key difference between past conflicts and the present was “the broader context of global upheaval and regional uncertainty unfolding beyond the India-Pakistan relationship itself, particularly in West Asia”, said Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University. A region in upheaval “creates incentives not to remain obsessively focused on the other side, and to instead redirect strategic attention towards larger challenges”, he said. The economic crisis arising from the Iran war has led to a “rethink on whether they [India and Pakistan] can really afford a conflict”, said Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian studies at Yale University. Since last May’s clash, Pakistan has “emerged much stronger, while India is struggling to deal with the Trump administration and now with the economic crisis brought upon by the war on Iran”, he said. “That has held India back and unless the geopolitical and economic situation changes significantly, Delhi will have to restrain itself.” The sudden about-turn in US-Pakistan relations since President Donald Trump’s return to power in January 2025 has “stunned India which has tried to diplomatically isolate Pakistan for the best part of the past decade”, he said. “That strategy has failed spectacularly.” Pakistan’s role as mediator in the Iran war “underscores for India the reasons why its relationship with the US has taken a tumble”, Kugelman said. Islamabad would not be “enjoying” this prominent role if it did not have the trust of Trump, who has repeatedly expressed his admiration for Pakistan’s chief of defence forces Field Marshal Asim Munir. “This is something that has not gone down well in Delhi at all,” Kugelman said.

Will geopolitical shifts push India, Pakistan towards cautious diplomacy?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Hardline Indian political figures appear to be signalling a thaw in New Delhi-Islamabad ties is imminent, analysts say

Hardline Indian political figures appear to be signalling a thaw in New Delhi-Islamabad ties is imminent, analysts say