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Maria Siow

The Myanmar junta’s attempts to place its top man in the country’s highest civilian position have been described by analysts as a “constitutional repackaging of continued military rule”.
On Monday, Min Aung Hlaing, who led the military in the 2021 coup and has headed the junta since then, resigned from the armed forces, moving one step closer to becoming president. He stepped down after Myanmar’s parliament had cleared the way for his nomination.
He handed over the role of commander-in-chief of the armed forces to Ye Win Oo, a staunch loyalist, who was promoted to army chief on the same day.
After toppling the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and detaining the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, the junta leader dissolved her party, triggering an ongoing civil war.
He also oversaw heavily restricted elections in January that criminalised protests, excluded main opposition parties and led to a walkover win for pro-military parties.
Apart from the military, which occupies a constitutionally mandated 25 per cent of seats, parliament is controlled by a coalition of parties loyal to the military. Together with its allies, the military controls nearly 90 per cent of seats across the bicameral body.

Under the law, Min Aung Hlaing must give up his current role as the head of the armed forces if he accepts the presidency.
Describing the power transition as a “constitutional repackaging of continued military rule”, Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a PhD student researching governance at Cornell University, said the recent polls were not a “general election” but one designed for generals.
The strongman, he said, was trying to shift from junta chief and coup leader to formal head of state without giving up the military’s underlying dominance.
“The regime’s priority remains preserving cohesion at the top while trying to give military rule a more constitutional appearance. By installing Ye Win Oo, he appears to be prioritising personal loyalty and regime cohesion over any serious change in war strategy,” Kyaw Hsan said.
He noted Ye Win Oo was widely described as a close loyalist and former intelligence chief whose rise had been unusually rapid.
“That points to continuity at the top, not a fresh strategic rethink,” Kyaw Hsan said, adding that it implied no major shift in the military’s conduct of the civil war.
Consequently, the junta would continue to rely on air power, drones, intelligence-led repression, coercive recruitment and an emphasis on its survival over compromise, he said.
A loyalist successor reduces the chance of an internal policy break
Kyaw Hsan, PhD student at Cornell University
“A loyalist successor reduces the chance of an internal policy break with Min Aung Hlaing’s war strategy,” Kyaw Hsan added.
Across Myanmar, resistance and widespread rejection of military rule remain strong, particularly from the ethnic armed organisations, which have seized large swathes of territory from the military.
Angshuman Choudhury, a Singapore-based researcher on Myanmar, said this week’s transition was unlikely to significantly change the country’s political, security or economic situation.
“Most people understand that this is a nominal, stage-managed transition without any effective reform in the overall political system,” Choudhury said. Nonetheless, the appointment of a new commander-in-chief could “momentarily destabilise the regime’s military momentum”, he added.
Ye Win Oo might not have the confidence of his peers and lacked “meaningful experience” in top leadership positions apart from the Office of the Chief of Military Security Affairs, Choudhury said.
“His abrupt elevation to the top post could affect command structures and decision-making, which could then adversely affect the regime’s battlefield strategy.”

Ye Win Oo was likely to face strong challenges from his fellow senior officers who might not fully accept him as their new leader, as he came from the Officer Training School instead of the elite Defence Services Academy, Choudhury said.
“Hlaing may have been unpopular in some quarters of the regime, but he was largely able to dominate and control the system,” Choudhury said, adding that the ongoing Iran war and its adverse impact on the country’s energy supplies would make it harder for the government to bolster its credibility.
The war has disrupted supplies and caused prices of fuel, food and other essential goods to surge in an already fragile economy. Facing higher diesel costs, the crucial farming sector’s food production is expected to decline.
Hunter Marston, an adjunct fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies’ Southeast Asia programme, said while there were risks in any political transition, Min Aung Hlaing was expected to retain influence as president and as a member of the supreme governing body, the National Defence and Security Council.
“It would take a lot of motivation and a political axe to grind for an opportunist to step up and seek to settle scores by turning on [him] at this point,” Marston said.
Adding that the military would continue to enjoy “pride of place atop Myanmar’s politics”, Marston said that the strongman’s power remained “essentially unchallenged”.

The military rulers are also unlikely to face accountability for their human rights abuses against civilians, resistance fighters and minority populations, according to Marston.
Following the coup, the junta committed widespread atrocities, including mass killings, sexual violence and destruction of villages to forcibly suppress opposition, maintain control and punish communities for supporting the resistance, according to rights groups and eyewitnesses.
Marston said Min Aung Hlaing’s strategy of eliminating the resistance at all costs – even tanking the economy and making Myanmar an international pariah – had “tragically proven effective”.
“Ye Win Oo is likely to continue Min Aung Hlaing’s approach to military leadership.”


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Myanmar junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing hands over a flag to newly appointed Commander-in-Chief General Ye Win Oo at a ceremony in Naypyitaw on Monday. Photo: Handout via Reuters

Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing shows his inked finger after voting at a polling station during Myanmar’s general election in Naypyidaw in December. Photo: AFP

Myanmar’s incoming military chief Ye Win Oo speaks during a handover ceremony in Naypyidaw on Monday. Photo: AFP/Myanmar Military Information Team

Members of the Mandalay People’s Defence Forces train at a camp in an undisclosed location in Myanmar’s northern Shan State in 2024. Photo: AFP

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Military representatives (in green) and other members of Myanmar’s parliament attend a session in Naypyidaw on Monday. Photo: AFP

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing attends a ceremony to commission new aircraft in the Mandalay region of Myanmar, on Thursday. Photo: Myanmar Military True News Information Team/AP

Military officers serving as members of Myanmar’s parliament arrive in Naypyidaw on Monday. Photo: AFP

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Myanmar’s previous junta chief, Senior General Than Shwe, in March 2010. Photo: AFP

Myanmar’s military leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The junta’s election has been, at best, a tawdry makeover. Photo: AP

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Min Aung Hlaing, who has resigned from the armed forces, is set to get approval from the military-allied parliament to become president


Min Aung Hlaing, who has resigned from the armed forces, is set to get approval from the military-allied parliament to become president.


Why Myanmar top general’s exit is window dressing to cement military rule

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Min Aung Hlaing, who has resigned from the armed forces, is set to get approval from the military-allied parliament to become president

Min Aung Hlaing, who has resigned from the armed forces, is set to get approval from the military-allied parliament to become president