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Junaid Kathju

As the Iran war reshapes West Asian geopolitics, Pakistan has unexpectedly emerged as a backchannel mediator between Tehran and Washington, potentially sidelining India’s efforts to assert itself as a credible global diplomatic actor.
India, despite its growing partnerships with the US, Israel and the Gulf states, has been absent from any meaningful conflict-resolution initiative on Iran.
Umer Karim, a political science researcher at the University of Birmingham, said India’s strengthening strategic ties with Israel and efforts to rebuild its US partnership had left it “largely irrelevant and marginalised”.
“Its diplomacy has been missing in action for several days after the initiation of hostilities. Even the sinking of an Iranian ship near Indian territorial waters drew muted and reserved reactions from the Indian side,” Karim said.
Though India is seeking a larger role in global governance, from its G20 presidency to Global South leadership, it is carefully navigating the war’s fallout to protect its interests in the Middle East and beyond.
Any open condemnation of US actions risks derailing its trade rapprochement attempts with Washington, which took a hit when the US imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Indian exports over Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil last year.
“Unease” had characterised India-Iran ties in recent years, Karim said, reflected in Delhi’s reluctance to fully commit to developing Iran’s Chahbahar port. He said he found India’s silence on Iranian attacks on Gulf states even more “surprising”.
“With the UAE, with which India signed a letter of intent for a strategic partnership, it was widely expected that Delhi would become a critical defence partner and ally of the Emirates, but it didn’t,” Karim said. “All of this will have grave implications for India’s standing and strategic relevance on both shores of the Gulf waterway.”

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday shared Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s social media post expressing Islamabad’s willingness to facilitate “meaningful and conclusive” talks to end the conflict.
Pakistan reportedly delivered Trump’s 15-point ceasefire proposal to Tehran, with US Vice-President J.D. Vance expected to be involved in negotiations. Iran has rejected the proposal, however, and laid out its own five conditions.
Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said India and Pakistan had differing strategic cultures and ambitions shaped by their diverging geopolitical trajectories.
“Because of Pakistan’s geographical position and its willingness to collaborate with the US’ strategic plans in the region, it has been involved in numerous geopolitical conflicts in its neighbourhood,” Donthi said.
“Islamabad adopts a high-risk, high-reward approach, whereas India, with its declared multi-alignment stance, prefers to play it safe and avoid mediation, as seen in the Russia-Ukraine conflict too, unless invited by both sides.”
The instability in Afghanistan and Iran reinforced Pakistan’s value as a frontline partner for Washington, while its strategic ties with Saudi Arabia further strengthened its hand as a potential host for Iran-US talks, Donthi added.
While India would not welcome such a boost to Pakistan’s global standing given its campaign to isolate Islamabad since last May’s conflict, Donthi said it did not fundamentally alter its rise built on economic strength, international partnerships and its perceived role as a counterbalance to China.

After reports of Pakistan positioning itself as the lead mediator began circulating, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi came under fire from the opposition. Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi called Delhi’s foreign policy under Modi a “joke” when asked about Islamabad’s growing diplomatic profile.
External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar hit back at an all-party meeting on Wednesday, saying India could not act as a “dalal [broker] nation” in global geopolitics the way Pakistan did.
The government also sought to contextualise Islamabad’s role, noting that Pakistan had served as a Washington-Tehran backchannel since 1981.
Foreign affairs analyst Robinder Sachdev said Pakistan’s proactive diplomacy had earned it disproportionate visibility, but questioned whether it would translate into lasting strategic weight.
“Pakistan’s active role in the negotiations over the US-Israel-Iran crisis has undeniably heightened its global visibility,” he said. “However, from India’s long-term perspective, this engagement is unlikely to yield durable strategic weight. India instead views Pakistan’s current actions as another step towards its potential implosion.”
He pointed to a consistent pattern over five decades in which Pakistan extracted temporary relevance from external crises even as those engagements eroded its internal cohesion and institutional capacity.
“While such episodes offer economic relief and secure the extravagant lifestyles of Pakistan’s military-political elite, they ultimately hinder genuine national progress,” said Sachdev, founder of the Imagindia Institute think tank in Delhi.
Amid Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly 14 per cent of India’s exports to Gulf countries pass – Jaishankar has spoken four times with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, while Modi has reached out to leaders across the Gulf, including those of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain.

Sachdev said India’s non-interventionist posture was a deliberate long-term wager, rooted in its historical non-alignment and designed to accumulate economic, technological and military depth before asserting greater global influence.
It was also calibrated to resonate with the Global South, he said, building trust among nations wary of traditional power blocs, in a manner not unlike China’s historical focus on accumulating comprehensive national power before stepping onto the world stage.
Michael Kugelman, former director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute and a senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, said Pakistan had secured a genuine diplomatic win regardless of whether talks ultimately convened in Islamabad.
“It was really a small number of countries leading from the front on the mediation efforts focused on a very complex, high-stakes regional conflict,” he said. “In that sense, Pakistan has strengthened its global diplomatic profile and has achieved a significant strategic victory.”
Kugelman said India’s disadvantage stemmed from two factors: its diplomatic alignments did not position it naturally as a neutral interlocutor and it had not projected itself publicly as a mediator the way Pakistan had.
Its ties with Washington have been “shaky in recent months” while its relationship with Tehran has never “particularly warm”, and this was further complicated after an Iranian vessel was sunk following a joint naval exercise with India. And momentum on Chahbahar port – one of the few “substantive engagements” connecting the two countries – has stalled.
Modi’s visit to Israel just before the war broke out had only compounded the problem, Kugelman said.
“The optics and timing of that have really affected India’s cause in the eyes of Iran and might have even disqualified India as a potential mediator,” he said.
“India’s style is to stay back and wait until formally requested to play such a role. Despite being a top candidate to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, it didn’t happen because it wasn’t formally invited. The same is the case here.”


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India

Pakistan steps in as Iran mediator while India watches from the wings

Rocket trails are seen in the sky above the Israeli coastal city of Netanya amid a fresh barrage of Iranian missile attacks on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

A vehicle drives past the prime minister’s residence building in Islamabad on Wednesday, as Pakistan offers to help mediate talks to end the Iran war. Photo: Reuters

External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has said India cannot act as a “dalal nation” in global geopolitics the way Pakistan did. Photo: EPA

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reached out to leaders across the Gulf on the Iran war. Photo: AFP

As India and US seek to reset defence ties, Iran war threatens to be the wild card

Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions close to Sepah Square in Tehran on March 1 amid the ongoing US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Photo: TNS 

US Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby testifies before a Senate hearing on March 3 in Washington. Photo: Getty Images via AFP

A dockyard off the coastal city of Fujairah in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate. Iran has said it would let “non-hostile” oil vessels go through the crucial strait amid the ongoing Middle East war. Photo: AFP

Why India faces dilemma over Iran war while seeking ‘diplomatic flexibility’

Iranians stand next to damaged residential buildings in southern Tehran on March 15 amid ongoing US-Israeli attacks against Iran. Photo: EPA

India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar speaking at the UN General Assembly last year. He has spoken with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, and other Gulf leaders amid the Middle East war. Photo: Reuters

Indian vessel “Nanda Devi” carrying LPG arrives at a port in Gujarat on March 17 after Iran allowed it to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: TNS

An Israeli howitzer artillery gun fires rounds towards southern Lebanon from Galilee in northern Israel near the border on Friday amid the widening Middle East war. Photo: TNS

Why US policy on India aims to avoid repeat of China ‘mistake’

US President Donald Trump meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the White House in Washington in February last year. Photo: AFP

US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau attends an event in Miami, Florida, on Saturday. Photo: AFP

A view of the iconic Lujiazui from the Shanghai Bund in China. The US wants to ensure that India does not mirror China as it progresses, analysts say. Photo: Shutterstock

An AI event in New Delhi last month. India may face hurdles in obtaining advanced US tech, according to analysts. Photo: EPA

US sinking of Iranian warship near Sri Lanka sparks regional anxiety, pressure on India

Iranian warship IRIS Dena is seen in the Bay of Bengal during the International Fleet Review held at Visakhapatnam, India, on February 18. Photo: AP

A frame grab from a video shows what the US Department of Defence says is periscope footage of a US Navy submarine firing on and sinking an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean. Photo: US Department of Defence / AFP

A man checks the local newspaper, following a submarine attack on the Iranian military ship, IRIS Dena, off the coast of Sri Lanka, in Galle, Sri Lanka, on Thursday. Photo: Reuters

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Monday. Photo: The Canadian Press via AP

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India’s ‘surprising’ silence on Iranian attacks amid uneasy ties with Tehran could affect its strategic relevance in the Gulf, analysts warn


India’s ‘surprising’ silence on Iranian attacks amid uneasy ties with Tehran could affect its strategic relevance in the Gulf, analysts warn.


Pakistan steps in as Iran mediator while India watches from the wings

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}India’s ‘surprising’ silence on Iranian attacks amid uneasy ties with Tehran could affect its strategic relevance in the Gulf, analysts warn

India’s ‘surprising’ silence on Iranian attacks amid uneasy ties with Tehran could affect its strategic relevance in the Gulf, analysts warn