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Maria Siow

Indonesia’s president is heading to Tokyo – and Japan has eight stealth frigates, a mineral deal and a seat at the emperor’s lunch table waiting for him.
Prabowo Subianto is due to arrive on March 29 for a three-day state visit, his first trip to Japan since taking office in October 2024.
He will hold talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and dine with Emperor Naruhito, according to a statement published by Tokyo’s Foreign Ministry on March 13.
Analysts say the agenda will be dominated by defence, resource security and China.
“Prabowo’s visit will be a great opportunity for the two countries to further strengthen the comprehensive and strategic partnership,” the ministry statement said.

Last Sunday, Indonesia and Japan signed two memorandums of cooperation on critical minerals and nuclear energy on the sidelines of the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum in Tokyo.
These were a “deliberate pre-summit signal” that both sides had “something concrete to show”, said Ayu Rachman, a visiting research fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs.
“Expect these to dominate the joint communique” afterwards, the Indonesian researcher said.
Though Prabowo met Takaichi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea last October, analysts say the coming Tokyo meeting carries greater weight.
In January last year, Prabowo hosted Takaichi’s predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, in Jakarta, where the two sides discussed areas ranging from defence to infrastructure development. This visit is set to push that cooperation further.
The frigate factor
Tokyo has been deepening security ties across Southeast Asia through joint exercises, dialogues and capacity-building.
With Tokyo having eased its arms export restrictions, defence-industrial cooperation with Jakarta was set “to move higher on the agenda”, said Alexandra Sakaki, deputy head of the Asia research division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
She said the two sides were likely to build on Indonesia’s participation in Japan’s Official Security Assistance programme, under which Tokyo has provided Jakarta with high-speed patrol boats, drones and maritime surveillance equipment.
“Trilateral formats, such as with Australia, may also be explored as part of a broader push to institutionalise security cooperation,” Sakaki said.

That trilateral framework is already being assembled. Earlier this month, Indonesian Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin announced plans to expand a bilateral defence framework with Australia into a three-way arrangement that includes Japan.
He unveiled the move after talks in Jakarta on March 12 with Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles aimed at bolstering maritime and regional security.
The frigates, though, are the headline act. Jakarta is in long-term negotiations to acquire up to eight Mogami-class stealth frigates worth US$3.6 billion.
Under the proposed arrangement, Japan would build four of the vessels outright, with the remaining four to be co-produced at Indonesian state-owned shipyard PAL Indonesia through a technology transfer.
No contract has been signed, but few expect the subject to stay off the table for long.
A ‘credible alternative’?
Tokyo’s interest in Southeast Asia’s largest economy extends well beyond that transaction.
“Japan needs Indonesia’s participation in its FOIP [Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept] far more than it admits,” Rachman said, adding that without Jakarta’s buy-in, the vision “becomes very difficult to sustain”.
The framework, first championed by former prime minister Shinzo Abe and now being carried forward by his protegee Takaichi, calls for a region governed by the rule of law, freedom of navigation and open trade.
Japan hopes the summit will reaffirm its solidarity with Indonesia in promoting that vision as China works to deepen its own influence across Southeast Asia, according to a Kyodo News report published on Wednesday.
However, Sakaki said Tokyo was “clear-eyed” about the limits of Jakarta’s foreign policy.

“Indonesia pursues a pragmatic, non-aligned approach aimed at maximising benefits across multiple partnerships – including with China – rather than aligning closely with any single power,” she said.
China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner and a major investor, with ties spanning infrastructure, the digital economy and a growing maritime security relationship.
“Japan’s broader strategy in Southeast Asia aims to prevent China from dominating the regional order,” Sakaki said.
“By offering economic and security cooperation, Tokyo seeks to provide credible alternatives to Chinese initiatives.”
With Washington taking a more confrontational approach to the region under US President Donald Trump, Japan’s cooperative approach had “gained additional appeal and strategic relevance” in Southeast Asia, Sakaki said.
During her diplomatic debut at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ summit in October last year, Takaichi positioned Japan as a “trusted partner” of the region.
Prabowo’s visit may be her best chance yet to put that partnership into practice.


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Japan woos Indonesia with stealth frigates ahead of Prabowo-Takaichi talks

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Defence and minerals to dominate the agenda as Tokyo offers hi-tech warships and energy pacts to secure Indonesia as a ‘trusted partner’


Defence and minerals to dominate the agenda as Tokyo offers hi-tech warships and energy pacts to secure Indonesia as a ‘trusted partner’.


Japan woos Indonesia with stealth frigates ahead of Prabowo-Takaichi talks

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Defence and minerals to dominate the agenda as Tokyo offers hi-tech warships and energy pacts to secure Indonesia as a ‘trusted partner’

Defence and minerals to dominate the agenda as Tokyo offers hi-tech warships and energy pacts to secure Indonesia as a ‘trusted partner’