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Maria Siow

North Korea fired a volley of ballistic missiles on Saturday, just as US officials were in Seoul exploring ways to reopen talks with the regime that launched them.
But Kim Jong-un is not waiting by the phone.
Instead, analysts say North Korea’s supreme leader has set terms that leave little room for negotiation, with a calendar that leaves even less room for a summit.
US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Michael DeSombre touched down in Seoul last week and met Jeong Yeon-doo, South Korea’s chief nuclear negotiator and vice-minister for strategy and intelligence, to discuss the situation on the Korean peninsula, South Korean media reported.

The talks appeared tied to an expected visit by Trump to China. But that trip, originally planned for later this month, was pushed back “five or six weeks” amid the war on Iran, the US president confirmed on Tuesday.
Kim appeared to leave the door ajar to talks at last month’s ninth congress of the ruling Workers’ Party, saying “there is no reason not to get along well with the US” – but only if Washington recognised North Korea as a nuclear state and abandoned what Pyongyang calls its “hostile policy”.
But that condition is precisely where any diplomacy would likely collapse, analysts said.
Nah Liang Tuang, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies who specialises in North Korea, said the wreckage of the 2019 Hanoi summit had left Kim with little appetite for re-engagement.

At that meeting, Pyongyang had demanded the lifting of most major economic sanctions in exchange for only a partial dismantling of its nuclear programme – an offer Washington flatly rejected.
“If any meeting takes place, I am not sanguine about chances for progress,” Nah said, adding that diplomacy would only be viable if the US came “cap in hand with a willingness to accept North Korea as a nuclear-armed state”.
“With Trump’s tendency to seek a dominant position in negotiations vis-a-vis a weaker power, and the nuclear arms progress that Kim has made, there seems to be scant room for compromise,” he added.
Political scientist Khang Vu, a visiting scholar at Boston College who studies East Asian security, said Washington had quietly shelved denuclearisation as a diplomatic goal, but noted that this still fell short of what Pyongyang actually wanted.
“That is not enough because North Korea wants an explicit acknowledgement of its nuclear status,” he said.
No rush to talk
Saturday’s weapons test showed how far apart the two sides still are.
North Korea fired 10 to 12 short-range ballistic missiles in a launch personally overseen by Kim, with the projectiles travelling around 360km (220 miles) and displaying what analysts assessed as heightened strike capabilities.
The launches coincided with US-South Korea military exercises that end on Thursday, as well as the redeployment of elements of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system from South Korea to the Middle East, where the US has been reinforcing defences against Iranian missiles.
Nah said the barrage was Kim’s way of keeping North Korea “in the forefront” of East Asian security at a moment when global attention had largely shifted elsewhere.

Vu said that Pyongyang would read the THAAD redeployment as a signal that Washington did not “prioritise” the region or dialogue on North Korea’s nuclear programme.
But North Korea was in no rush to talk, he added.
Pyongyang currently enjoys strong backing from both Russia and China, and has little incentive to come to the negotiating table.
North Korea-Russia ties have deepened considerably since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, with Pyongyang supplying ammunition and troops while receiving advanced military and space technology, food and energy in return.
Relations with Beijing are also robust, driven by a shared interest in countering US influence in the region.

The Xi factor
Even setting aside North Korea’s terms, analysts point to a bigger strategic complication for talks: China.
An expected summit between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping was being billed as a major reset in one of the world’s most consequential bilateral relationships, said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London.
He said Trump would likely welcome a Kim meeting as soon as possible, but Beijing’s calculus was different.
“A Trump-Kim summit right before or after would undermine the importance of the Trump-Xi summit,” Pardo said, with the latter potentially reduced to “one of more meetings that Trump is having while in Asia”.
The Iran war, meanwhile, offers Pyongyang a different kind of dividend.
North Korea would likely see the ongoing conflict as a “nice distraction” for the US, Pardo said.
“[This] will lead to a decreased focus on Pyongyang itself”, he added – buying Kim time and leverage without requiring him to move an inch.


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North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a shooting competition to mark the army’s “Snipers’ Day” at a training base on March 3. Photo: KCNA/KNS/AFP/Getty Images/TNS

A test-launch of 600 mm-calibre multiple rocket launchers by North Korea’s military on Saturday. Photo: KCNA/Reuters

North Korea’s Kim Jong-un talks to US President Donald Trump in the garden of the Metropole hotel during their second summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019. Photo: Reuters

A launch vehicle of the THAAD anti-missile system is seen at a US military base in Seongju, South Korea, on March 5. Photo: Yonhap/AFP

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands after a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Apec summit in Busan, South Korea, last year. Photo: Reuters

Why Iran and North Korea are ‘highly likely’ to revive missile and nuclear cooperation

Damaged buildings following air strikes at the Khorgu missile base on Monday in Khorgu, Iran. Photo: Vantor via AP

North Korea has expressed support for the election of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader. Photo: WANA via Reuters

The Choe Hyon naval destroyer conducts a missile test launch observed by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at an unknown location in North Korea on Tuesday. Photo: KCNA via Reuters

South Korean tanks on standby at a training ground in the border city of Paju on Monday, as South Korea and the US begin their annual “Freedom Shield” military exercise. Photo: EPA/Yonhap

A view of the Natanz Nuclear Facility with new building damage, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, near Natanz, Iran, on March 2. Photo: Vantor/Handout via Reuters

Activists hold placards during a rally against the US demand for South Korea to deploy troops to the Strait of Hormuz, outside the US embassy in Seoul on Monday. Photo: Reuters

A cargo ship sails in the Persian Gulf towards the Strait of Hormuz in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday. Photo: AP

A departure ceremony is held for the 300-strong Cheonghae Unit to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia, at a naval base in Busan, South Korea, on June 28, 2018. Photo: EPA-EFE/Yonhap

A South Korean protester wears a mask of US President Donald Trump during a protest against Trump’s request to dispatch warships to the Strait of Hormuz, in front of the US embassy in Seoul on Monday. Photo: AFP

Why a Trump-Kim summit 4.0 would be on North Korea’s terms: ‘the ground has shifted’

US President Donald Trump (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands during their third meeting in Panmunjom on June 30, 2019. Photo: AP

South Korean soldiers stand guard in the truce village of Panmunjom, in the demilitarised zone separating the two Koreas, in 2023. Photo: AFP

North Koreans wave national flags at a parade in Pyongyang on October 10 celebrating the 80th founding anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. Photo: Xinhua

Visitors take photos in front of the logo of 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum at Bomun Lake near the summit venue in Gyeongju, South Korea, on Monday. Photo: Reuters

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With Washington tied up in Iran, Kim Jong-un’s message is clear: if the US wants a summit, it must pay his nuclear price


With Washington tied up in Iran, Kim Jong-un’s message is clear: if the US wants a summit, it must pay his nuclear price.


Why North Korea’s Kim expects the US to come ‘cap in hand’ for Trump talks

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}With Washington tied up in Iran, Kim Jong-un’s message is clear: if the US wants a summit, it must pay his nuclear price

With Washington tied up in Iran, Kim Jong-un’s message is clear: if the US wants a summit, it must pay his nuclear price