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Biman Mukherji

Maria Siow

The sinking of an Iranian warship by a US submarine off Sri Lanka’s coast has raised concerns across South and Southeast Asia that the Middle East conflict may be expanding into the Indian Ocean, while also intensifying political pressure in India for a stronger response.
Analysts said the strike’s location near key sea lanes linking Asia with the Gulf had heightened fears the conflict could spill into waters vital to regional trade while also raising doubts in New Delhi over its cautious diplomatic stance.
Sri Lankan authorities said the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena sank on Wednesday off the island’s coast, with 32 sailors rescued while more than 100 were reported missing.
Colombo said the ship went down outside Sri Lanka’s territorial waters but within its search-and-rescue zone, prompting naval vessels and aircraft to assist survivors in accordance with international maritime obligations.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the vessel was sunk by a torpedo fired from a US submarine, describing it as the first such torpedo sinking of an enemy ship since World War II.
The IRIS Dena had been in India in late February to take part in an International Fleet Review alongside vessels from 40 other countries, including the United States and Russia.

Political scientist Chong Ja Ian from the National University of Singapore said governments across Asia were likely to respond cautiously, issuing statements of concern and calls for de-escalation while seeking to avoid becoming directly entangled in the conflict.
“They have clear concerns about maritime safety, maritime access and transport, fossil fuels, international law, and economic reverberations owing to energy prices,” Chong said.
But he added that Asian governments might have limited ability to shape the course of events.
“They could work to pass a resolution in the United Nations, but immediate, practical outcomes might not follow easily,” Chong said.
“Some governments may also believe that the best option may be to register their positions publicly but otherwise refrain from action to avoid punishment from Washington or otherwise getting entangled in the conflict.
“Others may wish to hide and hope the events blow over without being too costly for them.”
He said that, in some ways, the Iran-US-Israel conflict had already been felt in Asia.
“It’s just that the sinking of the Iranian frigate is a dramatic example of the use of force that has made the headlines,” Chong said.
He noted that Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen had already been attacking shipping off the Horn of Africa, while the US and Israel had carried out strikes against them in response.
“Some of this shipping runs to Asia, even though they may appear physically far away,” Chong said.
Iran had also been moving oil through so-called shadow fleet vessels, some of which transit Asian waters, including the Indian Ocean, the South China Sea and routes near Singapore, he added.

Dilemma for Delhi
While the strike has raised broader regional concerns, analysts say its political repercussions may be felt most immediately in India, whose government has sought to maintain a cautious diplomatic balance during the crisis.
Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an independent political commentator, said the location of the strike so close to India’s maritime neighbourhood was bound to raise questions about Delhi’s stance in the war and whether it should respond more directly to Washington.
India “should have taken it up with the US”, he said.
Delhi’s cautious stance also raised questions about its leadership of the Global South, Mukhopadhyay said.
“India has always been articulate about securing the interests of the Global South, but now other countries such as Brazil are taking a stronger position,” he said.
The Brazilian government has condemned the US-Israel attacks on Iranian targets and expressed grave concern over the military action.
Earlier this month, India’s main opposition leader Rahul Gandhi slammed the government in a social media post for not taking a stronger stance against the war.
“The unilateral attacks on Iran, as well as Iran’s attacks on other Middle Eastern nations, must be condemned. Violence begets violence – dialogue and restraint remain the only path to peace. India must be morally clear,” he wrote.
Gandhi said escalating hostilities between the US, Israel and Iran were pushing a fragile region towards wider conflict where millions of people, including Indians, were now facing uncertainty.
The Middle East has a large Indian population, with up to 10.8 million Indian citizens living and working in the region, making it one of the biggest expatriate communities in the world.
This community is a major source of remittances for India, sending billions of dollars back home annually.

On Monday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the situation in the Middle East was a matter of grave concern.
“India stands for peace and stability,” he said during a joint media briefing with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, adding that India “has always called for dialogue and diplomacy to find a solution to such disputes”.
Kingshuk Nag, an author and independent political commentator, said the incident could raise concerns about India’s lack of foreknowledge of the attack.
“The ship was struck so close to India, and we seemed to have no idea of what was going on,” he said.
Prateek Joshi, a PhD candidate at Oxford University researching India’s foreign policy, said Delhi had been in touch with all the stakeholders in the present conflict, with a greater tilt towards the US-Israeli side, considering US President Donald Trump’s “high pressure” policy towards the region.
“The attack on the Iranian frigate has inadvertently drawn India into the crisis, but given India’s present stance, Delhi is unlikely to draw itself into taking a clear side, considering India’s unique relation with all the sides,” Joshi said.
“India consciously chooses not to be drawn into the ongoing conflict, both militarily and logistically.”


Kalinga Seneviratne, a Sri Lanka-born regional geopolitics analyst and journalist, said the strike could also be interpreted by some observers as a signal of US willingness to project military power in waters close to India.
“The US is trying to tell India that the Indian Ocean is not your lake,” he said, adding that the incident could prompt debate in India about its strategic partnerships, including its role in the Quad grouping with the US, Japan and Australia.
Harsh Ramaswamy, an independent political commentator, said Modi was pursuing what he described as a “variable foreign policy”, balancing relations among major powers as global tensions intensified.
He said he did not expect Delhi to confront Washington too strongly unless the Iran conflict began posing broader risks to global stability amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
Vivek Mishra, deputy director of strategic studies at the Observer research Foundation, said it could be a good policy to wait it out as India had only recently resolved the prickly issue of steep import tariffs of up to 50 per cent with the US.
“We are not throwing Iran under the bus by doing so. It may turn out to be smart politics in the end,” he said, noting that Trump had threatened to impose a trade embargo on Spain for refusing to let the US military use its bases for strikes on Iran.


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A man checks the local newspaper, following a submarine attack on the Iranian military ship, IRIS Dena, off the coast of Sri Lanka, in Galle, Sri Lanka, on Thursday. Photo: Reuters

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A US submarine sank an Iranian warship off the southern coast of Sri Lanka on Wednesday. Photo: US Department of Defence via Reuters

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Experts say the strike highlights the risk of the conflict spreading into Asian waters and tests India’s careful diplomatic balancing


Experts say the strike highlights the risk of the conflict spreading into Asian waters and tests India’s careful diplomatic balancing.


US sinking of Iranian warship near Sri Lanka sparks regional anxiety, pressure on India

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Experts say the strike highlights the risk of the conflict spreading into Asian waters and tests India’s careful diplomatic balancing

Experts say the strike highlights the risk of the conflict spreading into Asian waters and tests India’s careful diplomatic balancing