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Jeoffrey Maitem

The Philippines cannot afford an aircraft carrier, could not sustain one if it had it and, according to most analysts, does not need one.
What it needs is messier, cheaper and harder to photograph, they say: a web of missiles, patrol boats, frigates and surveillance assets designed not to project power, but to deny it.
Two recent developments have made that choice harder to ignore. Last month, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr openly mused that an aircraft carrier with “accompanying destroyers, frigates, and submarines” could “push them away”, referring to Chinese vessels in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.
This comes as Indonesia, the Philippines’ vast southern neighbour, is preparing to acquire a retired Italian light aircraft carrier later this year, which would make it only the second country in Southeast Asia after Thailand to operate a carrier-type vessel.
Together, these events have cast a spotlight on what kind of navy the Philippines is building – and whether it is fit for purpose.

“We don’t have the means to send them away,” Marcos told a press conference on February 5, referring to Chinese-flagged vessels. “But if we had an aircraft carrier with accompanying destroyers, frigates, and submarines to send there to push them away, that would be possible.”
For Manila, the comparison with Indonesia is uncomfortable and hard to ignore.
The Giuseppe Garibaldi – a light aircraft carrier fitted with a ski-jump deck for AV-8B Harrier II jets and helicopters, decommissioned by Italy in 2024 – is expected to reach Indonesia before October 5, when the country marks its National Armed Forces anniversary, granted as a gift by Italy’s government.
Indonesian sailors have already begun training, according to Brigadier General Rico Ricardo Sirait, head of public relations and defence information at Indonesia’s Defence Ministry, while Jakarta has “allocated a budget for retrofit and adjustments to ensure the vessel meets the operational requirements of the Indonesian Navy”.
The acquisition is widely seen as the centrepiece of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s drive to modernise the armed forces: an ambition he began pursuing during his five-year tenure as defence minister from 2019 to 2024.
Thailand’s navy operates the only carrier-type vessel currently in service in Southeast Asia, HTMS Chakri Naruebet, commissioned in 1997, though it functions primarily as a platform for helicopters, disaster relief and maritime patrol rather than as a strike asset.

‘A carrier for what?’
The Philippines, meanwhile, makes no provision for aircraft carrier acquisition. Its “Re-Horizon” military modernisation programme, now in its third phase, identifies multi-role fighters, corvettes and offshore patrol vessels as near-term priorities: tools of territorial defence, not power projection.
Colonel Xerxes Trinidad, public information chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, declined to comment on whether a carrier figured anywhere in future military planning.
“I am not privy to the submitted list of capabilities from the Philippine Navy,” he said. All modernisation programmes are laid out by the Defence Department.”
Analysts were less circumspect, and largely united in their verdict.

“The real question is not feasibility, but strategic relevance and sustainability,” said Arnaud Leveau, a professor of geopolitics at Paris Dauphine University.
“For the Philippines, acquiring an aircraft carrier would represent a major doctrinal shift, from a primarily territorial defence posture to a power projection capability.”
This would require not only the carrier but also escort vessels, air wings, maintenance infrastructure and highly trained personnel, Leveau pointed out.
He cited Thailand’s experience as a cautionary one. “Thailand already operates an aircraft carrier, but its operational use has remained very limited,” Leveau said.
This raises the question: an aircraft carrier for what, exactly?
Arnaud Leveau, geopolitics professor
“This raises the question: an aircraft carrier for what, exactly? Without a clear doctrine and sustained resources, such platforms risk becoming more symbolic than operational.”
Others, such as Philippine Air Force reservist and security and defence analyst Sherwin Ona, said the navy’s ongoing frigate acquisition programme was a more honest expression of what the country could field and sustain.
“Aircraft carriers don’t operate alone,” he said. “They require a battle group set up that is simply impossible for a small country like the Philippines to have.”
Denial, not dominance
The strategic logic behind Manila’s choices runs deeper than budget constraints.
Though a carrier may be flashy, fundamentally different tools are required to confront the grey-zone coercion, maritime militia activity, coastguard stand-offs and sustained pressure around disputed features that the Philippines actually faces, according to political analyst Sylwia Monika Gorska of the University of Central Lancashire, who studies the Southeast Asian nation’s military and defence policy.
“Land-based aviation, coastal missile systems, submarines and strong surveillance networks offer greater strategic return relative to their cost,” she said.
“Aircraft carriers, by contrast, are instruments of sustained sea control and power projection. Acquiring one would represent a strategic reorientation.”

International relations specialist Chris Gardiner, CEO of the Institute for Regional Security, questioned whether a carrier would add genuine capability or simply create a high-value target.
“This involves territorial coverage, mass, reach and platform resilience in the face of the heavy attrition of modern warfare,” he said. “It is not clear that a single aircraft carrier, a very vulnerable platform against an adversary such as China, would meet these needs.”
President Marcos has acknowledged the scale of the imbalance plainly.
“If it’s just about the size and number of ships, we are far behind China,” he said on February 5.
When Marcos took office in 2022, the Philippine Navy’s “offshore combat force” comprised just nine principal ships. Today it counts four guided-missile frigates among its fleet, with one Rajah Sulayman-class offshore patrol vessel now in service and five more expected by 2028.

The BRP Rajah Sulayman and fast-attack interdiction craft BRP Audrey Banares were formally commissioned on Tuesday in the latest increment of that build-up.
General Romeo Brawner Jnr, the Philippine military’s chief of staff, was careful to frame the programme in defensive terms at the commissioning ceremony.
“Modernisation is not a signal of aggression,” he said on Tuesday. “It is a statement of responsibility. A credible defence posture deters conflict. Preparedness prevents miscalculation. Capability preserves peace.”
Manila has been in direct and sustained conflict with Beijing for years over the latter’s sweeping South China Sea claims.
The Philippines has responded by deepening defence ties with the US and other nations such as Japan and Australia, reducing the pressure to independently field high-end platforms such as a carrier, analysts say.
“Large platforms can quickly become exposed if they are not part of a fully integrated and well-protected naval system,” Leveau said.
For the Philippines, he argued, the question was never really whether it could have an aircraft carrier. It was whether it needed one – and the answer, for now, is no.


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The Philippines

Indonesia is getting an aircraft carrier. The Philippines isn’t. Does it matter?

The Italian aircraft carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi pictured in 2016. Photo: AFP

A Philippine Navy AW159 Wildcat helicopter is secured on the helipad of the BRP Jose Rizal, a Philippine frigate, during a maritime cooperative activity in the South China Sea last year. Photo: AFP

Thai transport ship HTMS Chang (front) accompanies HTMS Chakri Naruebet (back) on patrol. Photo: Royal Thai Navy

A Philippine Navy AW159 Wildcat helicopter is seen in flight while the Royal Australian Navy destroyer HMAS Brisbane sails during a maritime cooperative activity last year. Photo: AFP

Members of the Philippines’ Naval Special Operations Group march during a parade to mark the country’s 127th Independence Day in Manila last year. Photo: AFP

Filipino sailors stand on the deck of the BRP Miguel Malvar, a newly acquired corvette from South Korea, in Subic town, Zambales province, in April last year. Photo: Philippine Navy/AFP

US missile deployments in Philippines signal deeper strategic shift in region

A US M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, fires during the Balikatan joint military exercises at a naval station in Zambales province, northern Philippines, on April 26, 2023. Photo: AP

Philippine Ambassador to Washington Jose Manuel Romualdez answers questions from reporters in Manila on February 10. Photo: AP

A US Marine Air Defense Integrated System, or MADIS, fires at a drone during a live-fire Philippines–US joint military exercise at a Philippine Navy training camp in San Antonio, Zambales province, on April 27, 2025. Photo: AP

Japan to join US-Philippines military drills for first time: ‘knowing your friend’

Japanese troops take position during a joint military exercise in 2024. Photo: AFP

Soldiers march during a military parade in Manila held to mark the 89th founding anniversary of the Philippine Armed Forces in 2024. Photo: AFP

Japanese troops take position during a military drill in Chiba prefecture in 2024. Photo: AFP

Members of Japan’s Ground Self-Defence Force take part in combat exercises during a joint military drill with the US, Britain, Canada, Germany and others in January 2024. Photo: AFP

Art as advocacy: Philippine mural contest adds to South China Sea messaging push

Members of the Philippine Navy take part in a collaborative colouring activity during the launch of the nationwide mural contest on February 10. Photo: Raissa Robles 

Muralist A.G. Sanno speaks at the launch of the competition. Photo: Raissa Robles

Philippine Coast Guard spokesman for the South China Sea Commodore Jay Tarriela talks about a collision incident between Chinese and Philippine vessels in disputed waters South China Sea in August 2024. Photo: AFP

A still from “Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea”. Photo: Voyage Studio

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Indonesia wants to project power. The Philippines wants to deny it. In the South China Sea, one approach may matter more than the other


Indonesia wants to project power. The Philippines wants to deny it. In the South China Sea, one approach may matter more than the other.


Indonesia is getting an aircraft carrier. The Philippines isn’t. Does it matter?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Indonesia wants to project power. The Philippines wants to deny it. In the South China Sea, one approach may matter more than the other

Indonesia wants to project power. The Philippines wants to deny it. In the South China Sea, one approach may matter more than the other