Iran tempts Trump with ‘trillion-dollar’ nuclear deal pitch

After US and Iranian negotiators agreed on Tuesday to a set of “guiding principles” at their nuclear talks in Geneva mediated by Oman, Tehran went further – framing any eventual deal as a commercial proposition, not just a security arrangement. Iran is pitching access to its vast energy and mineral reserves as what it has called a “trillion-dollar opportunity” for American firms. In doing so, analysts say Tehran is speaking the language of a US president known for his deal-making proclivities. But though the approach “sets the right tone”, deep mistrust and domestic political opposition on both sides mean there is no guarantee of success. “For the sake of an agreement’s durability, it is essential that the US also benefits in areas with high and quick economic returns,” Iranian foreign ministry official Hamid Ghanbari said on Sunday, as reported by the semi-official Fars news agency. Ghanbari, the ministry’s deputy director for economic diplomacy, stressed that “common interests” in oil, gas and mining investment were now part of the talks. The language of opportunity is not new: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi deployed the trillion-dollar pitch before a planned round of talks last June, which were ultimately scuttled by Israel’s 12-day air war with Iran. Its re-emergence this week signals Tehran’s determination to keep the economic framing central as negotiations resume, albeit indirectly. Speaking to reporters in Geneva after Tuesday’s talks, Araghchi described four hours of consultations with US special envoy Steve Witkoff – relayed via Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi – as “completely serious discussions” about ideas put forward by both sides. While a road map had yet to be defined, he said the two sides reached a “general agreement on a set of guiding principles” with talks now moving towards negotiating the text of a possible deal. Washington’s read was more cautious, however. Speaking to Fox News, US Vice-President J.D. Vance said the talks had gone well “in some ways”, but added that President Donald Trump had “set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through”, without elaborating. While unlikely to determine whether Trump ultimately signs a deal or confronts Iran militarily, the overture has helped create what analysts describe as a more conducive atmosphere for indirect negotiations in Switzerland. Framing a deal around economic benefits “sets the right tone for talks with this administration”, said Robert Mogielnicki, a non-resident fellow at the Washington‑based Arab Gulf States Institute. “But it’s not guaranteed to move the needle.” Trillion-dollar potential The economic case Iran is making rests on considerable, if underdeveloped, natural resource wealth. Iran holds the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves – estimated at around 34 trillion cubic metres – yet currently produces “around 1 billion cubic feet per day, almost entirely for domestic consumption”, with no mass LNG export capability and only small pipeline volumes flowing to Turkey and Iraq, according to a report from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington think tank. It also holds the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, though export capacity stood at less than 2 million barrels per day in 2024. To attract capital, Tehran has recently tried to offer a new, more lucrative contract model with rates of return of around 20 per cent. Beyond hydrocarbons, Iran ranks among the world’s top 10 mineral-rich nations, with 15,000 mining areas that include the sixth-largest known zinc reserves, seventh-largest copper, ninth-largest iron ore and fifth-largest gypsum and baryte deposits. In March 2023, officials announced the discovery of what they described as the world’s second-largest lithium reserve. In policy proposals drawn up ahead of last year’s aborted round of talks, the Quincy Institute suggested that Washington could “demonstrate immediate benefits from a better deal” by selectively licensing up to US$25 billion in annual US exports – especially in aviation, agriculture and vehicles – without requiring the removal of primary sanctions barring American citizens and firms from doing business with Iran. It also called for allowing US-owned foreign subsidiaries access to as much as US$4 trillion in unrealised Iranian investment opportunities by 2040. Economics vs ideology Iran is currently facing a severe, multi-year economic crisis characterised by high inflation, a rapidly devaluing currency and stagnant growth, largely driven by international sanctions and deep-rooted domestic mismanagement. The Iranians “are clearly keen on working economic dimensions into a deal because Tehran’s economic challenges are mounting”, Mogielnicki said. Tehran’s seriousness in pursuing a deal was largely driven by this economic necessity, said Annelle Sheline, a former US State Department official and current Middle East research fellow at Quincy. “Without doing something to ease sanctions, the Iranian government is likely to face additional mass unrest and possible overthrow,” she said, referring to the recent deadly protests that roiled the country. Without doing something to ease sanctions, the Iranian government is likely to face additional mass unrest Annelle Sheline, Middle East analyst Framing a deal as something that would favour US companies was something Trump “would likely prefer”, Sheline said, even though it was unclear whether American firms alone would benefit from access to Iran’s large domestic market or development and investment opportunities. Dennis Citrinowicz, a former head of Iran research for Israel’s Defence Intelligence, called Tehran’s willingness to let US firms into its energy market “a significant shift”. He recalled that after the 2015 nuclear deal briefly loosened sanctions, Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials had warned that Western engagement risked “cultural infiltration”. “The fear was not merely economic dependency, but the gradual diffusion of Western social norms, political ideas and cultural influence,” Citrinowicz wrote in social media comments on Sunday. He predicted any new deal that expanded commercial ties with Washington while the leadership “remains deeply wary of cultural openness” would therefore likely involve strict controls designed to compartmentalise economic engagement. Even if Iran’s economic pitch lands well, analysts also foresee issues on the US side of negotiations. “Some types of change can happen pretty quickly with the Trump administration,” Mogielnicki said. “[But] levels of trust are low, and it is difficult to see the Trump administration reverting to a state of maximum trust [in Tehran] … any time soon.” Given the risks and variables it was also “very hard to envision US firms jumping right into the Iranian market”, he added. Despite appearing tailored to appeal to Trump’s self-image as “deal-maker-in-chief”, Iran’s economic pitch faced a US administration “full of Iran hawks”, Sheline said. These actors, plus Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the powerful Israel lobby in Congress, would “do everything possible to prevent a deal, despite possible benefits to the US economy and business interests”, she added.

Iran tempts Trump with ‘trillion-dollar’ nuclear deal pitch

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Tehran is dangling access to its vast oil, gas and mineral reserves, but analysts warn that even this may fail to ‘move the needle’ in talks

Tehran is dangling access to its vast oil, gas and mineral reserves, but analysts warn that even this may fail to ‘move the needle’ in talks