Is Japan’s new opposition alliance already ‘dead in the water’?

Japan’s fledgling opposition alliance is scrambling to regroup after a bruising election defeat that has left its future in doubt, raising broader questions about whether the country can sustain a credible parliamentary counterweight to the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party. The Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) is set to elect a new leader on Friday, just days after voters delivered a resounding blow in Sunday’s House of Representatives poll, prompting the resignation of its joint chairs. Some political insiders argue that, given time, the CRA – a merger between the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), previously the largest opposition force, and Komeito, a religion-backed party that until recently governed alongside the LDP – could still mature into a coherent bloc capable of challenging the ruling party. But others already see it as a doomed experiment. Internal discussions began on Wednesday about who was best placed to lead the alliance after co-chairs Yoshihiko Noda and Tetsuo Saito stepped down on Monday as the scale of the defeat became apparent. The CRA was only formally established on January 15, after Komeito ended its 26-year alliance with the LDP over policy differences with the hawkish Sanae Takaichi, who became both party leader and prime minister last October. Ahead of the vote, the newly merged grouping had hoped to build on the 173 seats it previously held and mount a serious challenge to the LDP, which controlled 196 seats plus another 34 through its pact with the Japan Innovation Party. But when the final ballots were counted, the CRA had collapsed to just 49 seats, while the LDP surged to 316, which – together with its ally’s 36 seats – consolidated complete control of the chamber. Doomed experiment? Survival is the most immediate challenge for the new alliance, according to former CDP lawmaker Yukihisa Fujita, who is now a visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford. “The CDP’s traditional supporters were very disappointed,” he told This Week in Asia. “It was obvious that the new party with Komeito had only been created for the election and that it was a long way from the ideology that the party was founded on.” Political engagement is weak in Japan, according to Fujita, who pointed to how civics education in other countries encourages children to value debate and democracy. He also believes that too much power is vested in prime ministers, who can time elections to suit their political needs under Japan’s parliamentary system. Still, he concedes that the opposition was thoroughly trounced this time round. The alliance “should survive”, he said, “although that does depend on who becomes the next leader and the policies that they develop to challenge the government”. The CDP and Komeito are not formally allied in the upper house, where they still outnumber the LDP and its partners. Fujita said that chamber still provided a platform to challenge government policies and potentially block more conservative moves on Takaichi’s agenda – such as revising the country’s pacifist constitution – and proving to the electorate that the CRA can still play a role. “The next few weeks and months are critical,” he said. “The new party leader has to perform in Diet debates and demonstrate to the public the importance of Japan having an effective opposition force. Having that check on the government is, I would say, essential.” I would say that it is dead in the water already Jeff Kingston, Asian studies professor Issues such as the rising cost of living, economic stagnation and controversial security policies may start to eat away at the wide popularity Takaichi currently enjoys, according to Fujita. “These matters are dangerous for Takaichi’s administration,” he said. “While the next lower house election is not for two-and-a-half years, the CRA can use that time to rebuild its reputation, develop its policies and challenge the government.” But he added that the alliance needed to start “now and be ready for when the public turns against the government”. Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University’s Tokyo campus, is less optimistic about the future of the CRA. “I would say that it is dead in the water already,” he said. “It was battered in a debacle of epic proportions on Sunday and it is hard to imagine how it survives a setback of that magnitude.” The CDP’s core supporters would never rally behind a religion-based party, he argued, adding that with Takaichi commanding an overwhelming lower-house majority, her biggest challenge would likely come not from the opposition but from the consequences of her own policies.

Is Japan’s new opposition alliance already ‘dead in the water’?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A 124-seat collapse has left the Centrist Reform Alliance in tatters, with observers calling the defeat a ‘debacle of epic proportions’

A 124-seat collapse has left the Centrist Reform Alliance in tatters, with observers calling the defeat a ‘debacle of epic proportions’