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Maria Siow

The United States’ decision to lift key arms-export restrictions on Cambodia signals a thaw in long-strained defence ties, but Phnom Penh is likely to make only modest purchases and remain heavily reliant on Chinese weaponry for the foreseeable future, analysts say.
In what Cambodian media described as a landmark move, the US Department of Commerce last week removed Cambodia from “Country Group D:5” – a classification that had effectively barred most US arms exports – according to a notice published in the Federal Register.
The change, which took effect on February 3, eases restrictions on the transfer of American defence-related technologies and comes amid a broader warming in military relations between Washington and Phnom Penh.
Last month, the USS Cincinnati made a port call at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, a visit framed by both sides as part of efforts to strengthen cooperation between the two militaries.
During the visit, Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, met Prime Minister Hun Manet and defence chief Tea Seiha to discuss strengthening military-to-military engagement.
Both countries also agreed to revive their annual Angkor Sentinel joint military exercises, which had been suspended since 2017.

Abdul Rahman Yaacob, non-resident senior fellow at independent think tank Verve Research, said the US was likely to provide Cambodia with non-sophisticated weapons due to the Southeast Asian nation’s limited defence budget.
“The Cambodian military is not equipped to operate sophisticated weapon systems,” he said.
This meant that non-lethal military equipment such as medical or communication systems, as well as rifles and mortars, would be provided, Rahman added.
Gregory Poling, director and senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies’ Southeast Asia programme, said arms sale packages to Cambodia would still have to be approved by the US government and could be blocked by Congress.
“This is more of a political statement” indicating warming ties and that Washington would consider arms sales to the kingdom again, he said.
Poling noted, however, that Cambodia’s deep military ties with China meant Phnom Penh was unlikely to undertake any major shifts away from Chinese platforms towards American ones.
“Nor will it worry Thailand, as the Thais have a bevy of sophisticated US-made platforms and Cambodia has almost none,” Poling said.
Apart from helping Cambodia expand the Ream base, China also conducts large-scale joint military exercises and military training, and is the primary weapons supplier to the kingdom.
A long-running territorial dispute between Cambodia and Thailand has led to ongoing armed clashes in recent months, causing more than 100 deaths and displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Noting that symbolism mattered over any immediate transaction, Sophal Ear, associate professor at Arizona State University’s Thunderbird School of Global Management, said the removal from the arms sale blacklist suggested that the US saw value in re-engaging Cambodia on security issues.
“[Washington] believes the bilateral climate is no longer so hostile that even modest defence cooperation would be futile,” he said.
Cambodia would still need financing and clarity about what systems it needed, particularly given the lengthy procurement process for many types of equipment, Ear noted.
Phnom Penh was therefore unlikely to move quickly, Ear said, as it might want to “avoid signalling that it intends to shift abruptly from Chinese supply lines, which are familiar, cheap, and politically embedded”.
According to Ear, Beijing will be watching closely as arms sales create training relationships, maintenance and parts dependencies, as well as regular contact between militaries which would “dilute” its exclusive foothold.
“China may not fear Cambodia drifting out of its orbit immediately, but it would be concerned about any movement that complicates its privileged position,” Ear added.
At a time of border tensions, Bangkok also will pay attention to any development that could signal Phnom Penh gaining additional external backing, according to Ear.


US-Cambodian defence relations soured after Phnom Penh forcibly repatriated a group of 20 Uygur asylum seekers back to China in December 2009, and again in 2017 after the country dissolved the main opposition party and arrested its leader.
Beijing’s role in modernising the Ream base also further worsened defence relations, according to Rahman, amid US suspicions that the base could exclusively serve China’s defence needs.
Heavily funded and expanded by China since 2022, Ream has been transformed to host larger, modern warships with key upgrades including a 300-metre (980-foot) deepwater pier, 5,000-tonne (5,500-ton) dry dock and joint logistics and training centre.
These have fuelled concerns that Ream is becoming a permanent outpost for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, similar to its base in Djibouti.
Ear said Washington was recalibrating its approach to Cambodia, partly because pressing the Southeast Asian nation on democratic backsliding had produced few results and deepened Chinese influence.
“Opening the door to arms sales is a signal that the US wants to rebuild trust and test whether Cambodia is willing to rebalance its external relationships,” Ear said.

Thong Mengdavid, deputy director at the China-Asean Studies Centre, said Phnom Penh had framed its engagement with Washington as “diversification rather than realignment”, given that China continued to be Cambodia’s most significant defence partner.
“[It has also] emphasised transparency and avoiding steps, such as basing arrangements or combat cooperation, that could be interpreted as strategic encroachment,” Thong said.
The improvement in Cambodia-US military ties, he noted, would also restore cooperation in non-combat areas such as peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, training and military education.
Given Cambodia’s history of “strategical dominance” by its two larger neighbours, Thailand and Vietnam, Thong said Phnom Penh had to pursue military modernisation, broaden engagement with major powers and diversify its arms sources.


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Analysts say Cambodia is likely to make only modest US arms purchases given its limited budget, and rely on Chinese weaponry for now


Analysts say Cambodia is likely to make only modest US arms purchases given its limited budget, and rely on Chinese weaponry for now.


What US lifting of arms embargo on Cambodia means for defence ties

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say Cambodia is likely to make only modest US arms purchases given its limited budget, and rely on Chinese weaponry for now

Analysts say Cambodia is likely to make only modest US arms purchases given its limited budget, and rely on Chinese weaponry for now