Malaysia’s missile upgrades target a South China Sea deterrence boost

Malaysia is moving to revamp its navy’s ageing strike capacity as it seeks to restore credible deterrence after years of procurement delays amid mounting pressures in the South China Sea. The modernisation push follows repeated Malaysian protests about Chinese coastguard vessels patrolling near offshore oil and gas assets. Malaysia’s navy is set to receive Norwegian-made anti-ship and land-attack missiles next month, according to the defence ministry, with deliveries of Turkey’s Atmaca anti-ship missile system also expected by 2028. The ministry described the overhaul as a “phased and prudent approach” in a reply to parliament last week, citing the evaluation of next-generation platforms – such as Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace’s Naval Strike Missile – that promise greater range, radar evasion and better integration with modern sensor networks. The response came after an opposition lawmaker asked about plans to replace the navy’s Exocet MM40 Block 2 missiles, which have formed the backbone of Malaysia’s maritime strike force for some 29 years. Malaysia’s new National Defence Industry Policy positions loitering munitions, laser defence systems and passive radar as strategic priorities. The policy mandates a local content requirement of “not less than 30 per cent” for all procurement contracts, Defence Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin said last month. Khaled framed the shift as part of a broader vision to translate military spending into lasting domestic capability, while warning that even local maintenance and overhaul providers could lose business if they fail to innovate or reduce costs. Malaysia “can no longer rely fully on others to guarantee its security and defence,” he said, calling for an end to “continued dependence on external parties”. Analysts see the missile acquisitions as a deterrent measure more than a tactical game changer. “It’s a typical peacetime deterrence move,” said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies’ Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, who characterised Malaysia’s move “as a hedge against uncertainty”. Upgrading from “antiquated shipborne offensive missile systems” such as the Exocet to the Naval Strike Missile and Atmaca platforms “would certainly be closely watched by Chinese defence and naval planners”, he said, while noting that it was unlikely to alter “Beijing’s calculus vis-a-vis Kuala Lumpur in the South China Sea context”. The missile push aligns with Malaysia’s “15-to-5” modernisation programme, launched in 2015, which aims to streamline its diverse fleet into five principal ship classes – littoral combat ships, littoral mission ships, new-generation patrol vessels, multi-role support ships and submarines – by 2050 to cut costs and boost readiness. However, progress on the flagship littoral combat ship programme has been mired in delays and controversy after governance lapses turned it into a national procurement scandal. The defence ministry now expects the first of five littoral combat ships to be commissioned in December this year and the second by August 2027, with three more following by 2029, according to a separate parliamentary reply. The project is valued at 11.2 billion ringgit (US$2.8 billion), with 74 per cent of funds already spent. The lead vessel is set for full sea trials by early April. ‘Grey zone’ gap Malaysia’s new missiles may strengthen deterrence and self-defence, but analysts caution they will not by themselves change the day-to-day dynamics in the South China Sea, where tensions are more often stoked by “grey zone” manoeuvres and coastguard patrols than open naval confrontation. The country’s readiness shortfall was exposed in an Auditor-General’s report from 2024 that found half of the navy’s 49 vessels were operating “beyond their designed lifespan”, with parts shortages and maintenance lapses lessening operational reliability. The gap is most visible off Sarawak, where naval and coastguard crews regularly track foreign vessels near the Luconia Shoals – known locally as Beting Patinggi Ali – within Malaysia’s claimed maritime zone and close to major energy installations. Local media reported last month that a Chinese coastguard vessel had been sighted inside Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone at the South Luconia Shoals. In response, Defence Minister Khaled told reporters that such incidents, once verified, were referred to the foreign ministry to lodge a formal diplomatic protest. He described a Chinese coastguard presence around both the North and South Luconia Shoals as the “norm” since 2013, prompting the armed forces to maintain a continuous “24/7” surveillance operation. The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative said in a 2024 analysis that such patrols occurred “like clockwork”, with Chinese vessels rotating on two- to three-week cycles. Imposing costs With a defence budget of 21.74 billion ringgit for 2026, Malaysia has for years prioritised maritime domain awareness. The latest national defence white paper defines the country as a “maritime nation with continental roots” and pushes for enhanced sea-denial capability as well as credible deterrence. Abdul Rahman Yaacob of the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute told This Week in Asia that modern strike systems could compel adversaries to factor in Malaysia’s ability to impose costs, even if grey-zone tactics limited their practical effect. Malaysia’s navy “is trying to balance operational readiness and supply chain security, which is a difficult balancing act”, he said, describing the “15-to-5” programme as an ambitious but necessary project “to cut costs and enhance operational capabilities”. “It may, to a small extent, affect the calculus of any hostile actor if they attempt to use military force to threaten Malaysia’s maritime rights,” he said. in the South China Sea, hostile actors implement grey zone tactics,” Rahman said, adding Malaysia “should continue to expand its coastguard capabilities”.

Malaysia’s missile upgrades target a South China Sea deterrence boost

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The navy is adding new Norwegian and Turkish missiles to replace its ageing arsenal of decades-old Exocets

The navy is adding new Norwegian and Turkish missiles to replace its ageing arsenal of decades-old Exocets