Sanae Takaichi poised for big win as snow-hit Japan votes

Japanese voters trudged through snow on Sunday to cast their ballots in an election predicted to hand Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a resounding win, though record dumps in some parts of the country snarled traffic and could dent turnout. According to news outlet Nikkei, the national average turnout stood at 26.01 per cent as of 6pm local time, down 2.97 points from the previous lower house election in 2024. However, the final result may be bolstered by a surge in advance participation. Early voting received a significant boost this year, with a record 27.02 million people casting ballots in the days before Sunday – an increase of around 6 million over the 2024 figures. The conservative coalition of Takaichi, the nation’s first female leader, could win more than 300 of the 465 seats in the lower house of parliament, according to multiple opinion polls, a large gain from the 233 it is defending. If the coalition of Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party with the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, wins 310 seats, it would be able to override the opposition-controlled upper chamber. She has vowed to step down if the coalition loses its majority. Takaichi, 64, who became prime minister in October after being selected LDP leader, sought a mandate from voters in a rare winter election as she rides a wave of popularity. Outside a polling station in a small town in the central prefecture of Niigata, where snow piled up more than 2 metres (7 feet) in places, teacher Kazushige Cho, 54, said he was determined to vote for Takaichi’s LDP despite the conditions. “She’s shown strong leadership and pushes various policies forward,” he said. “I think things could turn out quite well.” With a straight-talking style and an image as a hard worker that has won her support, especially with younger voters, Takaichi has accelerated military spending to counter China, with which she sparked a diplomatic row, and pushed economic stimulus and tax cuts that have rattled financial markets. “If Takaichi wins big, she will have more political room to follow through on key commitments, including on consumption tax cuts,” said Seiji Inada, managing director at FGS Global, a strategic advisory consultancy. “Markets could react in the following days, and the yen could come under renewed pressure.” She has promised to suspend the 8 per cent sales tax on food for two years to help households cope with rising prices, partly driven by the yen’s sharp fall. Takaichi has generated a social media-led wave, mostly among younger voters, of a sanamania called “sanakatsu” for products she uses, such as her handbag and the pink pen she scribbles notes with in parliament. “Takaichi’s personal appeal will enable LDP candidates, who might have otherwise struggled to be elected, gain seats by virtue of her endorsement,” said Levi McLaughlin, a professor at North Carolina State University. “Takaichi isn’t running as a typical Japanese prime minister. She is running a presidential campaign and it’s working,” he said. “Women see Takaichi as an inspiring alternative to the business-as-usual LDP.” A recent opinion poll found voters under 30 favouring her by more than 90 per cent. That young cohort, however, is less likely to vote than the older generations that have long been the bedrock of LDP support. “She plays the drums. She has an affinity for Korean products, music and entertainment. She is also active on social media, in contrast to the rest of her party,” Mark Cogan, associate professor at Japan’s Kansai Gaidai University, said. He said Takaichi was “remarkably different from her stodgy peers”, allowing her to weather several political storms, including the diplomatic feud with Beijing. Cogan, however, questioned the longevity of her appeal. “The bigger question is how long sanamania will last. Is this a case of curiosity where young people get swept up in something new or different, but seemingly disregard her policy positions that aren’t necessarily in their interests?” On Thursday, Takaichi received the endorsement of US President Donald Trump, a signal that may appeal to right-leaning voters but could also put off some moderates. With up to 70cm (28 inches) of snow forecast in northern regions, some voters will have to battle blizzard conditions to pass their verdict on her administration. It is only the third post-war election held in February, with elections typically called during milder months. Even the capital Tokyo was given a rare dusting of snow, causing some minor traffic disruptions. Nationwide, 37 train lines and 58 ferry routes were halted and 54 flights cancelled as of Sunday morning, according to the transport ministry. Turnout in recent lower house elections has hovered around the mid-50 per cent range. Any slump on Sunday could amplify the influence of organised voting blocs. One of those is Komeito, which last year quit its coalition with the LDP and has merged into a centrist group with the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ). Komeito has close ties to the lay Buddhist Soka Gakkai group, which claims at least 8 million members nationwide. But the alliance, according to McLaughlin, faces both internal challenges and difficulty appealing to the electorate as the religious organisation had limited time “to assemble their forces to get out the vote” due to the nature of the snap election. “Members tell me they’re nervous about how many of their fellow adherents will end up voting or whether they will correctly write the new party name on the ballot,” he said. A big concern appeared to be whether Gakkai supporters, after years spent forging close ties with the LDP, would easily transfer their loyalties to former members of the CDPJ, McLaughlin said. The Gakkai voter base has also shrunk due to demographic decline and a marked drop in enthusiasm for political engagement after the death of the group’s honorary president and Komeito founder, Ikeda Daisaku. Voters will pick lawmakers in 289 single-seat constituencies, with the rest decided by proportional representation votes for parties. Polls close at 8pm local time, when broadcasters are expected to issue projections based on their exit polls. Additional reporting by Kyodo

Sanae Takaichi poised for big win as snow-hit Japan votes

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Takaichi’s tax cut pledges and popularity boost the ruling LDP coalition’s chances amid geopolitical tensions

Takaichi’s tax cut pledges and popularity boost the ruling LDP coalition’s chances amid geopolitical tensions