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Julian Ryall

A record share of the Japanese public now supports strengthening the country’s Self-Defence Forces, a new government survey shows, highlighting how sharply attitudes on national security have shifted amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s expanding military activities and rising tensions on the Korean peninsula.
Analysts said the shift reflects a growing sense that diplomacy and alliances alone may no longer be sufficient to guarantee Japan’s security.
According to a Cabinet Office survey conducted in November and December, 45.2 per cent of respondents said the size and capabilities of the Self-Defence Forces (SDF) “should be strengthened”, the highest level since the question was first asked.
That figure was up from 42 per cent in 2022, the last time the survey was conducted, and just 9 per cent in 1991, when the question was first added.
By contrast, 49.8 per cent said the size and capabilities of the SDF should be maintained at current levels. In 1991, there was a gap of more than 50 percentage points between those who favoured expanding the SDF and those satisfied with existing defence arrangements. In the most recent poll, that gap had narrowed to just 4.6 percentage points.

According to the survey, the top concern among respondents was China’s military power and activities in the region, cited by 68.1 per cent, up 6.8 percentage points from the previous poll to a record high.
The next two major worries were Japan’s ability to defend itself and North Korea’s development of long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, both cited by about 65 per cent of respondents.
The results underline a broader shift in Japanese public opinion on defence, long shaped by the country’s post-war pacifist constitution and decades of political caution over military expansion.
“Yes, the change is significant and there are several reasons that we can identify,” said Masayuki Masuda, director of Chinese studies at the Ministry of Defence’s National Institute of Defence Studies in Tokyo.
“Japanese people witnessed the Russian invasion of Ukraine and that changed everything,” he told This Week in Asia. “We realised that we can no longer rely on the goodwill of other nations or diplomacy. The invasion of Ukraine was a real wake-up call for Japan.”
Another major factor, Masuda said, was China’s expanding military power and its territorial claims in the Indo-Pacific, including over Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea that Beijing calls the Diaoyu Islands and claims as its own.
“We know that China is strengthening its military and expanding both its conventional forces as well as its nuclear capabilities,” said Masuda. “And since Prime Minister [Sanae] Takaichi spoke in the Diet about Taiwan in November, we have seen Beijing increase pressure on Japan in multiple areas, from economic to diplomatic and military.”
Relations between Beijing and Tokyo have deteriorated since Takaichi announced in November that a “contingency” involving Taiwan could pose a threat to Japan and require a military response.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
“There is also growing concern that a ‘contingency’ might not be over Taiwan but could happen over Japan,” he said.
Public unease is also being fuelled by North Korea’s expanding missile and nuclear programmes, he added.


The North fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on Tuesday, coinciding with a three-day visit by US Under-Secretary for Defence Policy Elbridge Colby to South Korea and ahead of Pyongyang holding its first party congress in five years early next month.
Of particular concern to many Japanese, Masuda said, was the perception that China, Russia and North Korea were deepening cooperation through closer economic ties, shared military technology and joint exercises.
Analysts said the survey results also reflect anxieties about the reliability of Japan’s most important security partner, the United States.
“The security environment around Japan has become much more challenging in recent years and of course that is influenced by the actions of China, Russia and North Korea, but some of it is down to Washington as well,” said a Japanese academic who declined to be named as he acts as an adviser to government agencies.
“A growing number of people are looking at America’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and they are reaching the conclusion that Japan needs to strengthen its own defensive capabilities because we just do not know if the US is going to be by our side when a contingency does occur,” he said.
“Inconsistencies” in the security policies of US President Donald Trump’s administration are fuelling the sense that Japan needs to do more to defend its own interests, he said, while there has also been a shift over the last decade away from the attitude of avoiding conflict at all costs that was instilled after Japan’s defeat in 1945 to “a more realistic consensus on national security”.

Asked how public opinion might evolve by the next survey, due in late 2028, Masuda said he saw little reason for optimism.
“I expect China to continue to put forward a strong military posture in the region and that it will be difficult to find a way out of the current situation,” Masuda said. “I doubt that concern among the Japanese public will diminish and I expect it instead to increase. And that is likely to mean greater public support for national defence.”


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A record-high survey result reflects how the war in Ukraine and regional tensions have reshaped Japan’s once cautious security outlook


A record-high survey result reflects how the war in Ukraine and regional tensions have reshaped Japan’s once cautious security outlook.


Why more Japanese than ever support strengthening the Self-Defence Forces

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A record-high survey result reflects how the war in Ukraine and regional tensions have reshaped Japan’s once cautious security outlook

A record-high survey result reflects how the war in Ukraine and regional tensions have reshaped Japan’s once cautious security outlook