Philippines, China eye coastguard deal to calm South China Sea tensions. Will it work?

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the proposed pact as past efforts to lower the temperature in the waterway have had limited success

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A Chinese coastguard ship (right) fires a water cannon at a Philippine vessel near the Philippine-occupied Thitu Island in the South China Sea on October 12. Photo: Philippine coastguard/AP

Published: 8:00am, 20 Oct 2025Updated: 3:33pm, 20 Oct 2025

Manila and Beijing are working on a coastguard cooperation pact as part of efforts to manage recurring flashpoints in the disputed South China Sea, but observers say the step may not be enough to prevent conflict or build lasting trust.

Department of Foreign Affairs Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro told the Senate on Tuesday last week that the proposed plan aimed to “reach a conclusion … an MOU for them [coastguards] on certain issues that involve both sides”.

Lazaro said she hoped that the agreement would boost cooperation and reduce confrontation in the hotly contested waterway, where the Philippines has in the past accused the Chinese coastguard of harassing its ships, including by firing water cannons.

In the latest incident on October 12, a fisheries bureau vessel suffered “minor structural damage” after it was reportedly rammed by a Chinese coastguard ship while delivering aid to fishermen near Thitu, or Pag-asa Island, said Jay Tarriela, a spokesman for the Philippine coastguard.

Beijing claims sovereignty over almost the entirety of the South China Sea – where the Philippines and several other nations have competing claims – and has rejected a 2016 international ruling that ruled in favour of Manila and found China’s assertions have no legal basis.

Analysts backed the move but warned it could fall short of achieving the desired results.

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