Asean faces diplomatic dilemma over Myanmar junta’s ‘sham’ election

From slumping exports and rampant scams to border disputes among its members, Southeast Asia is in the teeth of overlapping crises. But among a lengthening list of troubles its leaders will discuss next weekend in Kuala Lumpur, one problem hangs heaviest: what to do with Myanmar’s renegade junta? Led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the junta seized power in February 2021 after being trounced by pro-democracy parties at an election held a few months before. Since then, Myanmar has sunk into civil war, with thousands killed as a pro-democracy rebellion takes on a heavily armed military. The war and sanctions have caused the economy to stagnate – undoing the progress made before the coup, which had offered flickers of a richer future for Myanmar’s struggling citizens – while about 3.5 million people have been internally displaced. Asean has also banned Myanmar’s military leadership from its meetings, in a rare rebuke for a bloc bound by convention not to interfere in members’ internal affairs. Min Aung Hlaing is now upping the ante by holding an election later this year in the parts of the country that the junta controls. Experts warn that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations risks irrelevance unless it responds to a rogue member’s defiance of an agreement to end the violence against its own people. Pressure is mounting on Asean chair Malaysia to use next weekend’s summit to issue a statement outright rejecting the election and any government that emerges from it. “In July’s Asean summit, Malaysia consolidated Asean’s position on the military junta’s sham election, saying that this election is a no-go,” said Khin Ohmar, founder of Progressive Voice, a Myanmar human rights organisation. “We want to make sure that that decision remains and not only to continue to reject the junta’s sham election but also to take another step, looking into what Asean as a whole is going to face after the post-junta election.” Critics say any junta-held election will be a “sham” because of the regime’s lack of territorial control and the exclusion of tens of millions of people from the ballot box. The military continues to bomb civilian areas and has made no discernible effort to find a compromise for peace talks with rebels. Observers predict the election will be confined to junta-controlled areas, secured by loyalty or fear. With the regime having suffered heavy losses, expert says the election is merely an attempt to manufacture legitimacy and appease its few remaining allies, including China and Russia. Even Min Aung Hlaing conceded this week that the election’s scope would be limited. In comments carried by state mouthpiece the Global New Light of Myanmar, he admitted that the poll, while intended to be “strong and competitive”, would not be held in 100 per cent of some constituencies “due to various reasons”. The European Union on Thursday joined the international chorus of condemnation of an election set to be held in phases starting in December. “I would call them regime-sponsored elections. And if a regime sponsors them, they can only lead to one outcome,” Kajsa Ollongren, EU Special Representative for Human Rights, told reporters during a visit to Kuala Lumpur. “There is no dialogue, there is no possibility for participation. So the outcome of these elections will not lead to a governance that has credibility.” Instead, she urged Asean to tether Myanmar to the five-point consensus, the agreement made with the junta shortly after its 2021 coup to end its violent crackdown on pro-democracy protesters. Four and a half years since the coup, experts warn that the cascading chaos – civil war, scam centres, surging drug production and the human misery that has forced untold millions overseas, including waves of starving Rohingya Muslims – will only intensify, posing new risks to Asean’s security. “Asean is more interested in stability and continues to mistakenly think that this will come from the junta,” Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham Malaysia who specialises in the politics of Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar and Indonesia, told This Week in Asia. It was time for the regional bloc to decisively support a pro-democracy movement that showed no sign of wilting, she added. “The region has not fully appreciated the costs of the emergence of a scam economy and how a sham election will perpetuate conflict. They think the past will repeat itself, rather than appreciate that conditions now with the resistance within Myanmar are fundamentally different.”

Asean faces diplomatic dilemma over Myanmar junta’s ‘sham’ election

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Pressure is mounting on Asean chair Malaysia to issue a statement that outright rejects the election and any government that emerges from it

Pressure is mounting on Asean chair Malaysia to issue a statement that outright rejects the election and any government that emerges from it