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Maria Siow

With Japan’s parliament poised to vote on who it wants to next lead the country, a resurgent opposition and the collapse of the ruling coalition have put the prospect of the nation’s first female prime minister in real doubt.
On Tuesday, the leaders of Japan’s principal opposition factions agreed to convene in hopes of fielding a unified candidate for the top job, as they aim to break the Liberal Democratic Party’s 13-year grip on power.
“It will be essential for us to achieve consensus on basic policies,” said Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, as quoted by Kyodo news agency.
Tamaki confirmed he would meet Constitutional Democratic Party chief Yoshihiko Noda as he urged Japan’s political opposition to “shift to more realistic policies on national security” and to take clear stances on energy issues, including the future of nuclear power.
Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, leader of the Japan Innovation Party, has also expressed a willingness to discuss a possible three-way alliance. All three leaders met in Tokyo on Wednesday.

The opposition parties are aiming to present a united front following junior coalition partner Komeito’s exit on Friday from its 26-year partnership with the LDP – a move triggered by the ruling party’s handling of a political slush fund scandal and the recent election of the conservative Sanae Takaichi as party leader.
Once seen as the front runner to replace Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister, Takaichi is no longer certain to win the parliamentary vote for the role that the LDP is reportedly planning to hold next Tuesday.
Should the opposition rally behind a single candidate and secure victory, it would mark the first time since 2012 that Japan’s prime minister has not been a member of the LDP.
Political horse trading is now fully under way
Purnendra Jain, academic specialising in Japanese politics
“Political horse trading is now fully under way, though it remains unclear who might partner with the LDP,” said Purnendra Jain, an emeritus professor at the University of Adelaide’s Department of Asian Studies who specialises in Japanese politics.
“Veteran LDP politicians, such as former prime minister Taro Aso, are likely to pull out all the stops to ensure that Takaichi secures the top position.”
‘Great transformation’
There is speculation that Komeito could still return to the ruling coalition, provided Takaichi is willing to soften her stance on key policy differences.
“If that happens, Takaichi’s chances will improve,” Jain said, describing Japanese politics as being at a point of “great transformation”, with new alliances and coalitions likely to emerge.
“As the saying goes, ‘a week is a long time in politics’,” he added, further noting Komeito’s traditional role as a centrist force wary of increased militarisation and keen to avoid an arms race in the region.
Komeito’s position on Beijing also diverges from the LDP’s, according to Jain. The junior coalition partner maintained good relations with Beijing and had often acted as a diplomatic bridge between Japan and China, he said.


Mark Cogan, an associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai Gaidai University in Japan, said Komeito’s withdrawal from the coalition had given opposition groups time to find an alternative candidate to rally around.
He warned against premature predictions. “The old proverb, ‘Don’t count your chickens before they hatch’, is appropriate,” he said.
If the parliamentary vote is split between the upper and lower houses of Japan’s Diet, a run-off between the top two contenders would follow.
“It’s not too difficult to see scenarios where Komeito plays the role of ‘kingmaker’,” Cogan said, adding it could potentially tip the balance to determine the next prime minister.

He described Komeito’s departure as a calculated move, noting that the party had already said it would support its own leader, Tetsuo Saito, for the top job.
The LDP’s ongoing woes, exacerbated by Takaichi’s recent appointment of slush fund scandal-tainted ally Koichi Hagiuda as acting secretary general, have further alienated Komeito’s base, which has its roots in the Soka Gakkai Buddhist movement.
“Part of this comes from Takaichi’s stance on Japan’s imperial history and her continual visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine,” Cogan added.
Takaichi, a hardline conservative and protégé of the late Shinzo Abe, has been accused of whitewashing Japan’s wartime record, defending its actions during World War II and making repeated visits to the shrine that has long provoked anger in China and South Korea.

Uncompromising opposition
Still, uniting the opposition in Japan will be no easy task, according to Rintaro Nishimura, senior associate at strategic advisory firm The Asia Group.
“Tamaki himself has stated numerous times that his party will not compromise on basic policies like security and energy policy just to be propped up as prime minister,” Nishimura said, referring to the Democratic Party for the People chief.
“It is still more likely that Takaichi wins the nomination, but by a tighter margin than what would have been expected had the LDP-Komeito coalition remained in place.”
While Komeito’s decision to leave the coalition was not surprising, he said its timing – just after Takaichi’s election as LDP leader – was.
“It likely saw this time as the best moment to capitalise on the uncertainty and maximise its leverage,” Nishimura said, noting that opposition parties seemed eager to work with Komeito on shared objectives, such as political reform.
Although Komeito risks losing seats by distancing itself from the ruling party, it stands to regain credibility with a base that has grown “irate” over its alliance with the scandal-plagued LDP.
“Komeito likely views this as a moment to revamp itself and return to its foundations as a ‘clean party’ free from corruption,” Nishimura said. “It can influence policy either as the ruling or opposition party. It chose the latter.”
Late on Wednesday, Takaichi announced that she had asked the Japan Innovation Party’s Yoshimura to form a coalition ahead of the coming parliamentary vote.
Yoshimura told a press conference that his party would consider backing Takaichi if the two sides reached an agreement on their policies.
Additional reporting by Kyodo


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Japanese opposition leaders (from left) Yuichiro Tamaki of the Democratic Party for the People; Yoshihiko Noda of the Constitutional Democratic Party; and Hirofumi Yoshimura of the Japan Innovation Party meet on Wednesday to discuss banding together. Photo: Reuters

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Tetsuo Saito, leader of the Komeito party, pictured at the Diet in Tokyo on Friday. Photo: Jiji Press/EPA

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The Liberal Democratic Party has ruled Japan in unbroken succession since Shinzo Abe’s landslide victory in 2012


The Liberal Democratic Party has ruled Japan in unbroken succession since Shinzo Abe’s landslide victory in 2012.


As Japan’s ruling party falters, a non-LDP prime minister becomes a real possibility

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The Liberal Democratic Party has ruled Japan in unbroken succession since Shinzo Abe’s landslide victory in 2012

The Liberal Democratic Party has ruled Japan in unbroken succession since Shinzo Abe’s landslide victory in 2012