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Maria Siow

As Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party begins the process of selecting a new leader – and by extension, the country’s next prime minister – the race is quickly shaping into a duel between a conservative heir to Shinzo Abe’s legacy and a reformist standard-bearer promising broader appeal within the divided party.
The party’s internal election on October 4 follows Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation after barely a year in office, with the winner expected to assume leadership through a parliamentary vote.
Whoever takes the helm will face a daunting set of challenges – from stubborn inflation and a volatile regional security environment to managing ties with US President Donald Trump.
The five contenders are Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi; former economic security ministers Sanae Takaichi and Takayuki Kobayashi; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi; and former LDP secretary general Toshimitsu Motegi.

But early polls suggest a two-horse race. Koizumi leads with 23.8 per cent support, followed closely by Takaichi at 21 per cent, according to recent surveys. The remaining candidates trail in the single digits.
Raymond Yamamoto, an associate professor at Aarhus University in Denmark, said Takaichi’s appeal stems from two key factors: her potential to become Japan’s first female prime minister and her close ties to the late Abe.
After announcing her candidacy for the LDP leadership in 2021, Takaichi – who had served as the party’s policy chief under Abe – pledged to carry forward his economic agenda. Known as “Abenomics”, it is defined by aggressive monetary easing, government stimulus spending and structural reforms aimed at spurring growth.
She also pledged to push for a new constitution and to visit Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine – which honours Japan’s war dead, including convicted Class A war criminals – a move that has historically drawn strong condemnation from China and South Korea when made by sitting or former prime ministers.
Koizumi, by contrast, is seen as a reformist with broader crossover appeal. He earned plaudits for helping stabilise rice prices as agriculture minister and, as Yamamoto noted, he also benefits from his family name.
“One should also not overlook the significance of being the son of Junichiro Koizumi, one of the most popular prime ministers of Japan,” Yamamoto added.
Koizumi senior, known for his maverick style and reformist agenda, remains one of Japan’s most widely admired political figures.


Describing the race as a “very tight” one, Yamamoto noted that both candidates were actively working to gain support from various ideological camps within the LDP.
“While Takaichi is a well-known nationalist, it is Koizumi, who has a more liberal stance, that has succeeded in gaining the backing of Katsunobu Kato, one of the party’s key conservatives,” Yamamoto said.
Kato, the current finance minister, was a close ally of the late Abe and a staunch proponent of Abenomics. He previously held several senior cabinet roles, including health minister, and was considered part of Abe’s inner circle.
He ran in the September 2024 LDP leadership race alongside Koizumi and former foreign minister Taro Kono, but all three were defeated by Ishiba.
Stephen Nagy, professor of politics and international studies at Tokyo’s International Christian University, said Takaichi was the most likely candidate to become the next prime minister, citing her role as chair of the LDP’s policy committee, which helps mediate between party factions.
He also noted that she is a protégé of Abe, who helped forge a stable approach to balancing Japan’s relations with both China and the United States.
“My bet is on Takaichi forming a strong conservative cabinet that includes many of the individuals she’s competing with today, such as Hayashi, Motegi and others,” Nagy said.
“Koizumi, while an attractive young man, does not have the ideological centre and experience to negotiate the LDP’s ageist politics,” he added.
Although Hayashi is a seasoned foreign minister with broad experience in the LDP, he is perceived by some as being too pro-China – a view that may not be accurate, according to Nagy.
He said the more pressing issue was whether Takaichi could unify the party’s conservative wing and remain in power long enough to provide stable leadership.

“I think that’s where the LDP would like to go. The question is whether she will be able to do it or not,” Nagy said.
It was essential for the party to select a prime minister with strong public support, as the LDP was under significant pressure to improve its image, Yamamoto said.
“It is also key to securing backing from opposition parties, especially under the current minority government,” he added.
The LDP has been rocked by a series of scandals in recent years, including the failure of party factions to properly declare their finances and the re-routing of political funds to lawmakers as kickbacks.
As a minority government, the LDP now struggles to govern effectively, often being forced to make concessions to opposition parties to pass legislation.
“The party’s top priority is to regain a stable majority, with a strong and popular leader who can restore public trust,” Yamamoto said.
“While the outcome is uncertain, Koizumi may have a slight edge given the broad support in the LDP and his track record of delivering tangible results.”


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Japan’s next leader? LDP showdown pits Abe protégé against reformist scion

Japan’s Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (left) and former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi are seen before the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election candidate debate in Tokyo on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

From left: Japan’s former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, former LDP secretary general Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, and Japan’s Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi take part in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election candidate debate in Tokyo on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

Japan’s Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (right) and former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi during the LDP’s presidential election candidate debate on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

As Ishiba exits, is Japan doomed for ‘revolving door’ era of political instability?

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will make way for a new leader after barely a year in office. Photo: AFP

Fumio Kishida called time on his prime minister tenure in 2024 after three years in charge. Photo: Kyodo News via AP

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (third from left) with Yoshihiko Noda (second from left), head of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, and Tetsuo Saito (fourth from left), head of the Komeito party, during a meeting in Tokyo on September 19. Photo: Kyodo

Sanseito supporters cheer during the party’s rally in Tokyo on July 21, a day after the upper house election. Photo: Reuters

(From left) Takayuki Kobayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Sanae Takaichi, and Shinjiro Koizumi pose before the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election candidate debate at Nihon Kisha Club in Tokyo on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

Japan’s Defence Minister Gen Nakatani (right) and his Australian counterpart Richard Marles shake hands aboard the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force’s (JMSDF) Mogami-class stealth frigate JS Mikuma at the JMSDF naval base in Yokosuka on September 5. Photo: Photo via AP

Japan’s ‘house of cards’: Ishiba clings to power as hawks demand LDP election

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba meets the press at his office in Tokyo on Tuesday. Ishiba is facing pressing to resign after his Liberal Democratic Party lost two recent national elections. Photo: Kyodo

Ex-Japanese economic security minister Sanae Takaichi visits the war-linked Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo on August 15. Takaichi is seen by analysts as a potential challenger to be Japan’s prime minister. Photo: Kyodo

Ex-Japanese prime minister Taro Aso speaks at a Liberal Democratic Party meeting on Wednesday in Yokohama. Aso has demanded that the LDP hold a snap election to choose its leader. Photo: Kyodo

Who will be Japan’s next PM? A ‘poisoned chalice’ of leadership awaits LDP’s winner

Shigeru Ishiba attends a press conference on Sunday to announce his resignation as Japan’s prime minister. Photo: Bloomberg/Xinhua

Toshimitsu Motegi speaks during a debate in Tokyo last year. Photo: AFP

Shinjiro Koizumi is the son of Japan’s former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. Photo: EPA-EFE

Sanae Takaichi. A recent opinion poll put her slightly ahead of Shinjiro Koizumi in the race to replace Ishiba. Photo: AP 

(From left) possible LDP leaders Yoshimasa Hayashi; Toshimitsu Motegi; Shinjiro Koizumi; former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi; and Sanae Takaichi. Photo: AFP

Japan’s LDP in crisis mode amid PM Ishiba’s expected exit

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts after meeting with LDP officials at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters

Supporters gather at a pre-election rally for the Sanseito party in Yokohama on Saturday. Photo: Kyodo News via AP

Former Japanese prime minister Taro Aso heads for a meeting with Ishiba and other party executives at LDP headquarters in Tokyo on Wednesday. Photo: Kyodo

Ishiba’s last stand? Japan’s LDP in turmoil as Sanseito surge erodes PM’s grip on power

Supporters of Japan’s Sanseito party attend a rally in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday. Photo: Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts at the Liberal Democratic Party’s headquarters in Tokyo on Sunday as the results of the House of Councillors election came in. Photo: Kyodo

Sanae Takaichi speaks before an LDP run-off election in September last year. The ex-economic security minister has been positioning herself as a possible successor to Ishiba. Photo: AP

Taro Aso (right) meets Donald Trump in April last year. The former Japanese prime minister has added his voice to the growing calls for change at the top of the LDP. Photo: AP

Supporters of Japan’s far-right Sanseito party attend a rally in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday. Photo: Reuters

Sohei Kamiya, head of the Sanseito party, reacts during a media interview in Tokyo on Sunday. Photo: Kyodo

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Recent polls suggest the party’s voters will decide between Sanae Takaichi’s conservative vision and Shinjiro Koizumi’s centrist appeal


Recent polls suggest the party’s voters will decide between Sanae Takaichi’s conservative vision and Shinjiro Koizumi’s centrist appeal.


Japan’s next leader? LDP showdown pits Abe protégé against reformist scion

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Recent polls suggest the party’s voters will decide between Sanae Takaichi’s conservative vision and Shinjiro Koizumi’s centrist appeal

Recent polls suggest the party’s voters will decide between Sanae Takaichi’s conservative vision and Shinjiro Koizumi’s centrist appeal