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Aidan Jones

In Thailand, elections do not necessarily decide who governs. Over the past few weeks, that paradox has played out once more, with a prime minister ousted, the country’s best-known political dynasty sidelined and a new leader taking the reins.
For young Thai activist Aitarnik Chitwiset, the endless chaos feels like it has no off-ramp.
“I’m disillusioned and exhausted by our politics,” she told This Week in Asia.
At just 28, Aitarnik is deeply invested in her country’s future. But like many young Thais who yearn for more democracy, she feels drained by a conservative establishment that clings to power, rarely loosening its grip, even when voters demand change.
I’m disillusioned and exhausted by our politics
Aitarnik Chitwiset, 28, Thai activist
A former communications specialist for Thailand’s youth-led pro-democracy movement, she once rode the wave of hope that drove millions to the polls in 2023. That excitement has since fizzled out, however, leaving the same conservative figures in power once again.
“The left feels fractured, each faction chasing its own priorities. Some place equal rights above all else, others champion environmental justice, while democracy itself sometimes feels secondary,” said Aitarnik, who is now on the organising committee of Thailand Pride.
“But the right seems far more unified, rallying around a single goal: protecting their own interests.”
Those interests have now congealed around one man: Anutin Charnvirakul.

Aged 58, the saxophone-playing pilot and vintage car enthusiast is also heir to a powerful construction empire and political dynasty who has served in Thailand’s cabinets three times.
He has carefully manoeuvred his way to the premiership, replacing Paetongtarn Shinawatra – daughter of jailed tycoon Thaksin – who had herself only succeeded real estate mogul Srettha Thavisin as prime minister last year.
Both Paetongtarn and Srettha were ousted by the courts, their governments and manifesto promises buried under the shifting sands of Thai politics.

Anutin, the new prime minister, is an arch-conservative who has steadily edged to the political right while displaying a ruthless pragmatism in brokering and breaking political alliances.
As a result, his Bhumjaithai Party has become indispensable to any government, despite representing only the third-largest bloc in parliament.
“Anutin has been extremely astute politically in the past few months,” said Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, a PhD candidate in political science at the University of Michigan.
“Of course, in normal times a party with a little over 70 seats would not be seen as viable as the core party in a coalition government – but these are decidedly not normal times.”

A shrewd operator
Anutin seized his chance after a leaked call between Paetongtarn and Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen amid a border dispute left her exposed to allegations of failing to serve the country’s interests.
On July 1 she was suspended, accused of a breach of ethics. Thailand’s constitutional court upheld that charge, dismissing her from the post late last month. Within a week, Anutin had taken her job.
Despite his painstaking rise to the top, he has pledged to dissolve parliament and call fresh elections within months. Under a deal with the pro-democracy People’s Party, which lent him 143 parliamentary votes to secure power, he is also bound to hold a referendum on rewriting the military-drafted 2017 constitution that critics say locks out reformers and entrenches elite power.
“The challenge now for Anutin will be governing while the economy is performing poorly and border tensions remain an ongoing issue, while also fulfilling his terms with the People’s Party,” Ken said.

For a leader without a parliamentary majority, the pitfalls are clear. Any constitutional reform could alienate conservative voters, his most reliable base.
It was Anutin’s own manoeuvring that helped sink the People’s Party – then called Move Forward – after its landslide in the 2023 election. His party, along with Senate allies, blocked its prime ministerial nominee and successfully campaigned for the court-ordered dissolution of Move Forward over its bid to amend lèse-majesté laws.
For disillusioned young voters, that betrayal still stings – as does the People’s Party throwing its weight behind Anutin. A number of prominent activists who were jailed for their efforts to reform the monarchy have since left the party, outraged at its support for the ideologically opposed new prime minister.
“If I had to vote today, I’d still go to the polls … but I’d reject every party on the ballot,” Aitarnik said.

Thaksin’s downfall
Observers say Anutin is betting he can outperform expectations in a fresh election, by peeling voters away from a weakened Pheu Thai. Once the country’s dominant political force, Pheu Thai is now in opposition after losing two prime ministers in as many years. The party is left to survey the wreckage of its handling of the economy, a bloody border clash with Cambodia and now the jailing of its patriarch, Thaksin Shinawatra.
The 76-year-old former prime minister returned from 15 years of self-exile in 2023 to what some call a “homecoming deal”, securing a sentence reduction and avoiding prison by claiming severe illness.
But this week the Supreme Court ruled that his excuses were false and his time in the VIP wing of a police hospital could not count towards his sentence. He was sent to jail for a year, becoming the first former Thai prime minister to serve time behind bars.
“After securing his ‘homecoming deal’ Thaksin seemed convinced the road ahead was smooth,” Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thai academic at Kyoto University in Japan, wrote on social media. “He underestimated the very people he struck the deal with and failed to recognise that Thailand’s elite consists of many factions – not all of them fond of him.”
“Today, no one will take to the streets demanding his freedom. His loyal base has shrunk. He no longer has massive popular backing.”
The one laughing the hardest is Anutin
Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Thai academic
But political eulogies may be premature for an enigmatic tycoon who has survived protests, persecution and being ousted by a coup.
Paetongtarn appears set to continue leading Pheu Thai, putting a Shinawatra family member at the helm of the party as the country enters a new election cycle.
Outside court on Tuesday, after her father had been jailed, a teary-eyed Paetongtarn urged the public not to forget his efforts to uplift the country and Thai democracy over the past two decades.
“As for myself and the Pheu Thai party,” she told reporters, “we will carry on working as the opposition to monitor the work of this government.”


The last laugh?
For Anutin, the to-do list is daunting. The economy is in desperate need of a kick-start, while trade tensions with the US and the dangerous border row with Cambodia both need careful stewarding.
Household debt is soaring, investors are rattled and ratings agencies have raised the prospect of a downgrade.
For the Thai public, weary of broken promises and endless upheaval, another election would appear to offer scant hope of change, as few believe the conservative elite will step aside if they lose.
But as the dust settles on another cycle of Thai political chaos, one figure stands triumphant. “The one laughing the hardest is Anutin,” Pavin said, calling him “the new face of Thailand’s elite”.


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What’s next for Thailand? Unpacking the rise of Anutin Charnvirakul

Illustration: Kevin Wong

Anutin Charnvirakul, then Thailand’s deputy prime minister and minister of public health, touches a cannabis plant during the opening of a cannabis clinic in Bangkok in 2020. Photo: AFP

A banner featuring the image of Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn is seen outside the Bhumjaithai Party headquarters in Bangkok last weekend. Photo: EPA

Former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (centre) appears at the constitutional court last month to testify about the phone call controversy with Cambodia’s Hun Sen. Photo: EPA

A view inside Thailand’s House of Representatives in Bangkok earlier this month. Photo: EPA

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra (centre) is escorted into a police van outside the Supreme Court in Bangkok on Tuesday. Photo: Thai News Pix/AFP

Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra jailed after apex court rejects hospital stay

Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra arrives at the Supreme Court in Bangkok on Tuesday. Photo: AP

Thaksin Shinawatra (second from left) is escorted into a vehicle as he leaves the Supreme Court in Bangkok, Thailand, on Tuesday. Photo: AP

Thaksin Shinawatra arrives at the Supreme Court in Bangkok on Tuesday. Photo: AP

Police officers stand guard during the issuing of the verdict on Thaksin Shinawatra’s case at the Supreme Court in Bangkok on Tuesday. Photo: EPA

Thaksin Shinawatra with his daughter, former Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, outside the Supreme Court in Bangkok on Tuesday. Photo: EPA

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A 68-year-old Thai woman collects belongings from her home, destroyed by Cambodian artillery attacks, on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters

Bunkers to protect residents against shelling are seen in in Thailand’s Surin province on Tuesday. Photo: AFP

An empty beach in Koh Phangan. Thailand has endured a tourism slump in recent months. Photo: dpa

Paetongtarn Shinawatra (second from left), suspended as prime minister but still serving as culture minister, arrives for a cabinet meeting at Government House in Bangkok on Tuesday. Photo: EPA

Hun Sen speaks at a press conference at Cambodia’s National Assembly in 2023. Photo: Reuters

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Thaksin Shinawatra and his daughter Paetongtarn arrive at Pheu Thai party headquarters in Bangkok before the royal endorsement ceremony appointing her as Thailand’s new prime minister on August 18. Photo: AP

Thailand’s new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (centre) greets other party leaders in Bangkok on August 18. Photo: EPA-EFE

General Prawit Wongsuwon pictured in Bangkok in February last year. Photo: AFP

Thaksin Shinawatra arrives at the criminal court in Bangkok on August 19 for a lèse-majesté hearing. Photo: Reuters

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A master political operator and heir to a construction empire, Thailand’s new prime minister rose to power with ruthless pragmatism


A master political operator and heir to a construction empire, Thailand’s new prime minister rose to power with ruthless pragmatism.


What’s next for Thailand? Unpacking the rise of Anutin Charnvirakul

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A master political operator and heir to a construction empire, Thailand’s new prime minister rose to power with ruthless pragmatism

A master political operator and heir to a construction empire, Thailand’s new prime minister rose to power with ruthless pragmatism