Can the Philippines ‘Trump-proof’ its US alliance to deter China?

Manila has spent billions on modernising its armed forces, but a new report warns the Philippines still leans too heavily on American protection – a gamble fraught with risk as US President Donald Trump repeatedly questions the value of old alliances. The Southeast Asian nation’s ability to counter China’s growing assertiveness remains in doubt, according to the assessment by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think tank, which found that the Philippines’ security strategy is still based largely on diplomacy and alliances, above all its Mutual Defence Treaty with the United States. Analysts warn this reliance leaves Manila exposed to Washington’s shifting priorities under Trump, whose unpredictability has raised concerns about America’s willingness to support Manila in a crisis. How far the Philippines should go in reinforcing its military and expanding security partnerships is unclear. Some caution that a stronger deterrent could entangle the country in a potential future conflict with China. Others argue that greater diversification of allies is essential to reduce dependence on the US. The Crisis Group report, released on August 12, highlights the challenge of “grey zone” tactics, defined as “operations intended to test, provoke and fatigue Philippine forces without crossing the line into acts of war”. It said these activities by China had raised doubts about how Washington would interpret the defence treaty’s obligations, which commit both signatories to come to the other’s aid in the event of an attack by a third party. Under former president Joe Biden, US statements left “significant room for interpretation” over treaty commitments, the report said. That ambiguity had deepened under Trump, “who is famously wary of alliances and the prospect of entanglement in foreign wars”, it added. Despite this uncertainty, US-Philippine military cooperation remains strong. Recent joint activities havd spanned intelligence sharing to procurement reforms, and ties “seem solid”, the report said. Still, analysts warn such stability could prove fleeting. “The Trump administration inherited a US-Philippines alliance that probably is at the strongest sort of level of cooperation, of interoperability that frankly we’ve seen in decades,” said Lindsey Ford, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation America, in an online conference hosted by the International Crisis Group on Tuesday. But this could all change suddenly, according to Walden Bello, an economist and former Philippine congressman, who said Trump was “definitely not” a reliable defence partner. “He’s very erratic,” Bello told This Week in Asia, adding that the trend of his decisions pointed towards “international disengagement in both military and economic terms”. Trump’s agenda was “to build a Fortress America in the Western hemisphere, using the military mainly for border control and quelling domestic civil resistance and disorder”, said Bello, who is also the co-chair of the Focus on the Global South think tank and an honorary research fellow at the State University of New York at Binghamton. The ‘Trump factor’ The Philippines has already sought to diversify its security ties. According to the report, Manila is pursuing new alliances to provide “a hedge against scenarios in which the White House downgrades its commitment to its Asian allies”. Rommel Jude Ong, a retired rear admiral of the Philippine navy, described the effort as “one way of Trump-proofing our security posture or our foreign policy posture”. The Crisis Group report outlines three possible scenarios given the “Trump factor”. In the first, the US treats Manila as a “top priority” and maintains the status quo of a close partnership. Yet Ford cautioned that “Beijing will be looking to test the Trump administration to see if they are willing to back up right now the things that they have said rhetorically about US support in the South China Sea”. The second posits “an increasingly inward-looking and risk-averse US” that refrains from applying its treaty commitments to grey zone incidents, whether as a concession to China or due to Trump’s own suspicion of alliances. In such a case, formal visits and strong words from US officials “cannot be expected to correspond to Trump’s own views”, it said. Roland Simbulan, a veteran analyst of military ties, warned: “Our defence partnership with Trump will be transactional. If he gets a better deal with China, he will dump US treaty obligations with us in favour of China.” The third, more dangerous, scenario envisions Washington both doubling down on the alliance and becoming “more aggressive in the region with the aim of containing China more decisively”, risking the Philippines being drawn into a direct US-China conflict. Philippine strategists would most likely favour the first outcome, according to the report, hoping that Washington remains a consistent, if unpredictable, partner. But Simbulan, who is chair of the Centre for People Empowerment in Governance NGO in Quezon City, cautioned that Manila “should not rely too much on so-called shared values when dealing with Trump”. Building capabilities Meanwhile, Manila has pressed on with a military shopping spree, acquiring jet fighters and frigates from South Korea, missiles from the US and India, armoured vehicles and patrol boats from Israel and a flotilla of destroyer escorts from Japan. Successive modernisation programmes have already cost some US$3.89 billion, with the report estimating a further US$36 billion may be required over the next decade for additional assets such as jets and possibly submarines. But even with these investments, the report warns the Philippines still lacks “minimal credible deterrence”. Defence spending has focused on asymmetric capabilities such as anti-ship cruise missiles and air defence systems, but Manila “has difficulty deterring Chinese grey zone activities” and would “likely struggle even more” without US backing, it said. Some fear the build-up could backfire. Simbulan argued that an arms race would only accelerate regional tensions, suggesting instead that Manila should work “collectively with our Asean partners” to gain leverage against China “without militarising our foreign relations and the region”. The Taiwan question further complicates matters. The report says Manila is boosting its deterrent capabilities not only to resist Chinese expansion in the South China Sea – where Beijing has blocked fishing rights and oil exploration in Philippine waters – but also to prepare for a possible armed move on Taiwan. China claims the self-governed island as its territory and vows reunification, by force if necessary. While most nations, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as independent, Washington opposes any military takeover and is bound by law to supply it with defensive arms. Bello warned against any suggestion of Philippine involvement in a possible future conflict, however. “We must avoid warmongering rhetoric at all costs, especially saying we will be in close support of US defence of Taiwan,” he said. “Even Trump has not committed the US to defend Taiwan and considers Taiwan a useless burden.”

Can the Philippines ‘Trump-proof’ its US alliance to deter China?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A new report warns that the Philippines still lacks the tools to counter China without a dependable US defence partner

A new report warns that the Philippines still lacks the tools to counter China without a dependable US defence partner