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South China Sea: Philippines’ resupply mission successful but is it calm before the storm?

Seventh trouble-free mission to disputed Second Thomas Shoal could be due to the July 2024 arrangement between both sides, analysts note

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Filipino coastguard crew look at a Chinese coastguard ship during a resupply run to the Second Thomas Shoal in March 2024. Photo: Jeoffrey Maitem

The Philippines has successfully carried out its seventh resupply mission to a military outpost on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea without Chinese interference, but analysts warn this could just be a false dawn for Manila.

One observer notes the trouble-free mission could be due to the arrangement between both sides that was reached in July 2024, and was reaffirmed during a subsequent bilateral meeting.

On Wednesday, the Armed Forces of the Philippines said in a statement its regular RORE (routine troop rotation and resupply), carried out in close coordination with the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), concluded without any untoward incident.

“As the nation marks the 83rd anniversary of the Day of Valor, the [armed forces] honours the courage and dedication of our soldiers aboard BRP Sierra Madre who continue to stand guard yesterday in the West Philippine Sea to uphold our sovereignty, sovereign rights and national interest,” the armed forces said.

Chinese coastguard vessels execute a dangerous manoeuvre against the Philippines’ civilian supply boat Unaizah May 4 on March 23, 2024 during a regular resupply mission at the Second Thomas Shoal. Photo: Jeoffrey Maitem
Chinese coastguard vessels execute a dangerous manoeuvre against the Philippines’ civilian supply boat Unaizah May 4 on March 23, 2024 during a regular resupply mission at the Second Thomas Shoal. Photo: Jeoffrey Maitem

The Chinese coastguard has tried to disrupt previous missions, accusing the Philippines of bringing building materials to reinforce the BRP Sierra Madre, a war wreck beached on the Second Thomas Shoal as an outpost for Manila.

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