‘Cosmic verdict’ fears grip Myanmar junta in earthquake’s aftermath

Myanmar’s military leader is expected to attend a regional meeting this week, despite the country still reeling from a devastating earthquake, while concerns mount that the junta may “weaponise aid” for its own political gain. The death toll from Friday’s earthquake – the country’s largest in more than a century – has crossed 2,700, with nearly 4,000 injured and close to 300 people missing. Efforts by over a dozen foreign rescue teams to deliver aid have been hampered by the ongoing civil war – as the junta, which seized power in a 2021 coup, continues to bomb the Sagaing region, a resistance stronghold 20km (12 miles) southwest of Mandalay and near the quake’s epicentre. Thailand has invited junta chief Min Aung Hlaing to the regional meeting of BIMSTEC – a grouping of South and Southeast Asian nations – scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Bangkok. Hunter Marston, a Southeast Asia researcher at the Australian National University, said Min Aung Hlaing was likely to attend because staving off regional diplomatic pressure and maintaining goodwill in Bangkok “matter more for his regime’s security”. The junta chief, who is under sweeping Western sanctions, has been barred from attending summits of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations due to his failure to implement a peace plan agreed with the bloc. “The junta has failed to respond effectively and humanely to natural disasters in the past and indicated that its top priority is to suppress unrest,” Marston said, noting that air strikes in Sagaing had continued despite the quake. Rebel groups fighting to oust the military have reported continued aerial bombardments in Sagaing’s Chang-U township, near the quake’s epicentre, and in regions along the Thai border, emphasising the regime’s reliance on air power to crush resistance. Myanmar’s military leadership often prioritises external engagements that lend it legitimacy, according to Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a PhD student researching governance at Cornell University. The junta had a history of restricting access to disaster zones to “choreograph its own response” and project control, he added. “The regime will take this as an opportunity to show it is ‘in control’ of the relief effort,” Kyaw Hsan said. “The regime may [also] try to push aid organisations to hand over their supplies directly to it, rather than allowing them to distribute the aid themselves.” He said international donors faced a dilemma: cooperate with the junta to deliver aid, or risk their contributions being misused to prop up the military. Several countries, including China and India, have stepped in to help. China delivered its first batch of US$13.9 million in emergency aid on Monday, while India deployed a rescue team, medical staff and essential supplies over the weekend. Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert at the National War College in Washington, warned that the junta would likely “weaponise aid for its own political purposes”. He said the regime feared that humanitarian supplies could bolster resistance groups, such as the People’s Defence Forces – the armed wing of the exiled opposition National Unity Government. Akash Sahu, a geopolitical analyst specialising in the Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asia, suggested that innovative solutions like digital payments might be required to bypass the junta and prevent a worsening humanitarian crisis in resistance-held areas. “For external powers who maintain a functional relationship with different parties within Myanmar other than the military, this may be a chance to show empathy and build enduring trust with local forces in control,” Sahu said. Bad luck? The earthquake has also reignited historical and cultural anxieties for the regime. Natural disasters in Myanmar are often seen as bad omens. Abuza said that the junta’s “extremely superstitious leadership” might fear the quake being interpreted as “a cosmic verdict on their legitimacy”. “They have every reason to fear that people will view this as an omen,” he said. Cyclone Nargis in 2008 was widely viewed as a harbinger of the then-regime’s collapse, Marston said. They have every reason to fear that people will view this as an omen Zachary Abuza, analyst Still, he cautioned against overestimating the earthquake’s political impact. “It is far from clear that the current disaster spells any unusual political instability for the junta,” Marston said. “If the resistance can capitalise on the opportunity to demonstrate its effective governance capabilities, it may enhance its own political support more widely.” Kyaw Hsan, however, described the quake as an “acute test of legitimacy” for the regime, noting that past disasters had fuelled talk of the authorities being “cursed”. If the junta fails to deliver aid effectively or actively obstructs relief efforts, public resentment could grow, he said. “While the disaster could deepen the junta’s unpopularity, it does not by itself guarantee a collapse of their hold on power,” he added. “What matters most is the intersection of disaster fallout, internal military cohesion, and ongoing armed resistance.” For now, the junta’s focus appears to remain on consolidating power – even as the ground beneath it shifts.

‘Cosmic verdict’ fears grip Myanmar junta in earthquake’s aftermath

While rescue teams struggle against civil war roadblocks, analysts warn of a ‘cursed’ regime facing a legitimacy crisis