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Park Chan-kyong

South Korea’s top opposition leader Lee Jae-myung has inched closer to the presidency after clearing a significant legal hurdle, but the country remains in political turmoil as it awaits the impeachment verdict for suspended president Yoon Suk-yeol.
A South Korean appeal court on Wednesday acquitted Lee of election law violations, removing a major obstacle in his potential bid for the presidency.
Opinion polls consistently show Lee as the front runner to replace Yoon if the impeachment is upheld.
The Seoul High Court overturned a lower-court ruling that had found him guilty of making a false claim in 2021 during a parliamentary audit concerning a land development project in Seongnam City, where he previously served as mayor.
Had the decision been upheld, Lee’s chances of running in the next presidential election would have been jeopardised.
If the Constitutional Court confirms Yoon’s impeachment, the election for a new president must take place within 60 days.
Prosecutors announced plans to take Lee’s case to the Supreme Court, arguing that the appellate court had “misinterpreted the law” and reached a conclusion that defied “common sense”.
Yoon’s ruling conservative People Power Party on Wednesday slammed the verdict, stating it was “proof that the judiciary is making decisions based on political inclinations”.
Meanwhile, the opposition Democratic Party of Korea accused prosecutors of acting as “political attack dogs” against Yoon’s rivals, referencing the president’s background as a former prosecutor general.


Referring to Lee’s discharge in the latest case and a previous acquittal in November on witness-tampering allegations from 2018, Choi Jin, head of the Institute of Presidential Leadership, told This Week in Asia: “He has recently been freed from two major legal shackles.”
Lee still faces three other cases related to alleged illegal remittances to North Korea, kickbacks from a city development project, and misuse of public funds.
These cases, however, remain in lower court deliberations, and verdicts are not expected soon enough to derail his presidential bid.
“This ruling gives Lee a significant advantage and brings him closer to the presidency,” Choi noted. “If the Constitutional Court upholds Yoon’s impeachment, Lee will be the overwhelming favourite to win the presidency.”
Political analyst Park Chang-hwan likened Lee’s resurgence to that of a “phoenix rising from the ashes” of political adversity. “This appellate court decision will further energise his campaign.”
Observers warn that if the Constitutional Court rejects the impeachment, the nation’s political crisis could deepen. A reinstated Yoon, weakened by the failed impeachment attempt and his controversial December 3 martial law declaration, would struggle to govern effectively.
“Although unlikely, we cannot rule out the possibility that the Constitutional Court may reject the impeachment,” Choi said. “It has surprised political observers before with its rulings in favour of government officials and prosecutors.”

Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said that regardless of the merits of Lee’s case, many South Koreans would see the ruling as the court “reading the political tea leaves”.
The judiciary has been trying to untangle the protracted legal matter “to allow South Korea’s political crisis to be resolved by an election rather than by the courts”, he said.
“However, South Korea’s political turmoil isn’t over yet. Political polarisation is likely to worsen with the Constitutional Court’s imminent ruling on Yoon’s impeachment,” Easley warned.
“In the unlikely scenario that Yoon is reinstated, there will be public outrage and institutional confusion, and the president would still have to face a hostile National Assembly and prosecution for alleged insurrection,” the professor added.
The path and progress of many domestic and foreign policies were at stake, from resolving the healthcare strike to dealing with North Korea, he said.
“But South Korea’s democracy is resilient, as are its globalised economy and security alliance with the United States … So the smart money and diplomacy are still with a long-term bet on Seoul,” he said.


Eom Kyeong-young, director of the Zeitgeist Institute, agreed that Lee is now well-positioned to consolidate his political influence. But he warned that the ruling would further entrench political divisions among voters.
Newspaper editorials reflected this divide.
The conservative Chosun daily condemned the appellate court’s judgment, arguing it undermined election laws.
“If courts continue to rule this way, laws banning false claims in elections will become meaningless, turning elections into a free-for-all of lies,” it wrote.
The centre-right Dong-a Ilbo attributed the country’s extreme political polarisation to both Yoon’s “rigid leadership style” and the opposition’s “overreach” in the National Assembly.
On the other hand, the progressive Hankyoreh newspaper criticised prosecutors for aggressively targeting Lee and other opposition figures.
“This ruling is effectively a verdict against political retaliation by the prosecution,” it argued.


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South Korea

South Korea’s opposition leader gains ground on presidency

South Korea’s opposition chief Lee Jae-myung (centre) inspects a temple devastated by a wildfire in Uiseong on Thursday. Photo: Reuters


Farmers stage a rally calling for suspended president Yoon Suk-yeol to step down in Seoul on March 25. Photo: AP

Anxieties mount over South Korea’s democracy amid wait for verdict on Yoon

A protester wearing a mask of impeached South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol at a rally in Seoulon Saturday. Photo: EPA-EFE

Farmers with tractor-laden trucks stage a rally in Seoul on Tuesday calling for Yoon to step down. Photo: AP

Lee Jae-myung, leader of main opposition Democratic Party, addresses a rally in Seoul on March 1 calling for Yoon’s removal from office. Photo: Yonhap/EPA-EFE

Yoon arrives in front of his official residence after being released from detention on March 8. Photo: Yonhap/EPA-EFE

South Korea’s impeached PM reinstated as acting president

Han Duck-soo took over as South Korea’s acting leader from impeached president Yoon Suk-yeol. Photo: Reuters

South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo speaks to the media on Monday after being reinstated as acting president. Photo: AFP

Civic groups gather at a rally in Seoul on Saturday calling for impeached president Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal. Photo: EPA-EFE

A far-right protester who had her head shaved pictured at a rally in Seoul earlier this month. Photo: Reuters

Protesters gather in Seoul on Saturday calling for Yoon’s removal from office. A banner raised towards the camera reads: “Fire the insurrection leader”. Photo: Park Chan-kyong

Delay in Yoon’s impeachment ruling prolongs South Korea’s ‘suffering’ as uncertainty deepens

Supporters of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol stage a rally outside the Constitutional Court in Seoul on March 18. Photo: EPA-EFE

South Korea’s opposition chief Lee Jae-myung (centre) and his party members march during an anti-Yoon rally in Seoul on March 19. Photo: AP

This Week in Asia

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Asia

East Asia

A court ruling acquitting Lee Jae-myung of electoral breaches places him as a front runner to succeed embattled incumbent Yoon Suk-yeol


A court ruling acquitting Lee Jae-myung of electoral breaches places him as a front runner to succeed embattled incumbent Yoon Suk-yeol.


Yoon Suk-yeol

South Korea martial law 2024