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Sam Beltran

The press release vanished as quickly as it had appeared. Days after the Philippines announced its intent to urge three small nations – Tonga, Bhutan and Nepal – to ratify a global treaty banning nuclear tests, the statement was quietly scrubbed from the government’s website. The sudden reversal left experts wondering: was it a sign of diplomatic overreach, or a calculated retreat?
The retracted statement described a meeting on March 18 between Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and Robert Floyd, executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation, during which Marcos reportedly pledged to persuade the three countries, saying: “We’ll do our best. We are familiar with the process.”
But the statement was removed from the Presidential Communications Office website shortly after publication, without any further explanation.
The move has sparked speculation about whether the Philippines is reluctant – or simply unable – to act as a middleman in the global push for nuclear disarmament.
“They’re not really countries we have strong bilateral ties with, so I’m not really sure what the Marcos Jnr administration could do to get them to sign and ratify the treaty,” said Vincent Kyle Parada, a former defence analyst for the Philippine Navy and now a graduate student at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).
Parada’s concerns reflect a broader tension: while the Philippines has long championed the moral cause of nuclear disarmament, its capacity to influence other nations remains limited.

A moral position
“The Philippines’ call for the universalisation of the CTBT is consistent with its long-standing moral position against the development and use of nuclear weapons,” said Julius Cesar Trajano, a research fellow with the RSIS’ Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies.
The Philippines was among the earliest signatories of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), having ratified it even as nuclear-armed powers including China, Russia and the United States demurred. The Southeast Asian nation has also enshrined nuclear disarmament in its constitution and hosts three international monitoring systems for detecting nuclear explosions.
Trajano said that small states like the Philippines played a critical role in advocating for global norms. “It’s important for small states to take a legal and moral position against nuclear bombs and testing, especially if they are located in a region dominated by nuclear-armed states,” he said.
Pacific nations such as Tonga, he pointed out, had suffered the consequences of nuclear testing in the past. By urging these countries to join the CTBT, the Philippines could amplify their voices on the global stage while promoting a vision of collective security.


Middle-power influence
Some analysts see the Philippines’ initial statement as evidence of its aspirations to carve out a niche as a “middle power” in international diplomacy.
“This call is deeply derived from Manila’s keen interest in projecting its entrepreneurship skills to cascade global security norms as any proper middle power would,” said Joshua Espeña, an international-relations lecturer at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines.
Espeña suggested that the Marcos administration may have viewed the CTBT push as an opportunity to “strengthen the Philippines’ status as a middle power in the global system”, adding that this could counter perceptions of Manila as a mere pawn in the rivalry between the US and China.
Yet the recall of the statement may also indicate hesitation on Manila’s part. Parada told This Week in Asia that the Philippine government likely did not want to commit to something it knew it could not deliver.

A world on edge
Observers warn that the world is entering a precarious phase of heightened nuclear rivalry. The US and Russia, which together hold 90 per cent of the world’s nuclear arsenal, are racing to modernise their weapons. Tactical nuclear arms are being deployed in active battle zones and nuclear-armed states are flexing their capabilities in increasingly provocative ways.
“Pacific countries like Tonga have been affected by nuclear testing in the past, and their concerns are usually disregarded by nuclear-armed countries conducting tests in the Pacific Ocean,” Trajano said.
He urged smaller nations to take action amid rising global tensions, arguing that their participation in treaties like the CTBT could send a powerful message.
While Espeña said nuclear warfare remained unlikely, he warned that the risk of escalation could not be ignored. “What’s concerning is the willingness of the nuclear club to flex [their capabilities] to each other, as well as non-nuclear states,” he said.


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Philippines pulls back on nuclear pact push, hinting at limits to its diplomatic reach

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As Manila’s attempt to act as a middleman in nuclear disarmament falters, analysts question its ability to influence smaller nations


As Manila’s attempt to act as a middleman in nuclear disarmament falters, analysts question its ability to influence smaller nations.


Philippines pulls back on nuclear pact push, hinting at limits to its diplomatic reach

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}As Manila’s attempt to act as a middleman in nuclear disarmament falters, analysts question its ability to influence smaller nations

As Manila’s attempt to act as a middleman in nuclear disarmament falters, analysts question its ability to influence smaller nations