As US pressures Japan to pay more for defence, will Trump’s demands ‘never end’?

The US nominee for ambassador to Japan has doubled down on Washington’s demand that Tokyo pay more for American troops based on its soil, indicating Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may have to rethink his approach towards President Donald Trump on the matter. The comments by George Glass in his testimony to the Senate on Thursday came as little surprise in Tokyo, given the rapidly fading confidence of the Japanese people in Washington’s willingness to help in times of need. An analyst pointed out that Glass “has just said the quiet parts out loud” at his confirmation hearing in Washington on Thursday, echoing demands that Trump came close to making in his previous term. Critics say the US cannot be trusted to abide by its security treaty with Japan even if Tokyo were to pay more and that Japan needs to do more for its defence, including developing new alliances. The loss in Japanese confidence has been linked to Trump threatening to invade Canada, Panama and Greenland and criticising Nato, indicating Washington may no longer commit to the long-standing transatlantic alliance. “As we can see from Ukraine, the United States is now willing to pull the plug when the time comes,” an online user said on the Tokyo Broadcast News web page. “Isn’t it brazen to ask for more funding for a military that has no intention of defending us? It’s best to just ignore what nonsensical countries say.” Another user commented: “This development has been expected. Isn’t it about time that Japan became an ‘adult’ country that is able to protect itself?” A message on a story broadcast by Fuji News Network echoed the concern: “As we can see from Trump’s conversation with [Ukrainian leader] Volodymyr Zelensky and his more recent remarks, it is clear that the US will not get serious about a Japanese emergency. I think we need to reconsider our dependency and to look further into the future.” The debate on the nation’s future has intensified since Glass, a former businessman who served as ambassador to Portugal during Trump’s first administration, told senators that while Japan presently paid around US$1.4 billion for hosting US troops a year at present, the sophistication and scale of the Chinese military had grown. The cost of deterring Beijing in the western Pacific had become “significantly more expensive”, Glass said. “Whether we have weapons systems that we need to upgrade, command-and-control that we’re going to be upgrading along with the Japanese, these are very expensive ventures,” he said. “And so, undoubtedly, I do believe we’re going to have to go to the Japanese and talk about an increase in that support.” In his talks with the Trump administration last month, Ishiba indicated he could go “a little higher, if necessary” on defence spending, according to Glass. While Japan had committed to raising its defence outlay to 2 per cent of gross domestic product by 2027, Glass said Tokyo needed to increase above this level. In comparison, Japan spent 1.6 per cent of GDP on defence in 2024. The 2 per cent figure is significantly below the 5 per cent level that Trump has demanded of Washington’s Nato allies. Ben Ascione, an assistant professor of international relations at Tokyo’s Waseda University, said: “This has all been on the cards and Glass has just said the quiet parts out loud.” While Ishiba has tried to follow the footsteps of his predecessor Shinzo Abe, who had a good working relationship with Trump during his first term, the pressure on Tokyo on the defence front and over possible higher tariffs for Japanese imports shows his efforts have fallen short, according to Ascione. “In his first meeting with Trump, Ishiba took a deferential approach, and he went to Washington loaded up with souvenirs,” Ascione told This Week in Asia. The government had also “tried to fly under the radar so as to avoid tariffs” but the effectiveness of such a tactic could only last for a limited time, he added. In his 2020 book The Room Where it Happened, former national security adviser John Bolton claimed that Trump was demanding US$8 billion a year from Japan. Bolton recently said Trump could even insist on a larger amount this time. An online user said on the Japan Today website: “I wish Japan would call their bluff. Demand the US start paying billions for the privilege of stationing troops in Japan, or get out within 90 days.” Another user said: “There is a difference between being an ally and running a protection racket.” Ascione said Japan might have to tread carefully by not giving away too much or avoiding making insufficient concessions to Trump. Nonetheless, the feeling in Tokyo was that if Japan were to yield to initial pressure from Trump, it “is vulnerable and the demands [from Washington] will never end”, he added.

As US pressures Japan to pay more for defence, will Trump’s demands ‘never end’?

George Glass, Washington’s nominee for ambassador to Japan, says the cost of deterring China has become ‘significantly more expensive’