The rattle of Okinawa: Chinese drones probe Japan’s defences

They came without warning, flying over waters near Japan last week: two Chinese drones, one a reconnaissance model and the other a sleek attack drone. For Tokyo, it was not just a test of its air defences but a preview of the future, analysts say, as Beijing seeks to normalise its military presence in the region while testing Japan’s response. Last Wednesday, two Chinese drones – a BZK-005 reconnaissance model and, for the first time, a Chengdu GJ-2 reconnaissance and attack drone – were tracked slipping through the airspace between Okinawa and Miyako Island, before entering the Pacific. The Japan Air Self-Defence Force scrambled fighter jets to shadow the drones, which flew south of Okinawa towards Amami Oshima before reversing course and retreating to the East China Sea. The drones never breached Japanese territorial airspace, but their presence was enough to stir concern in Tokyo. “We will continue to monitor developments in the airspace surrounding Japan with strong interest and will take all possible measures to conduct surveillance,” a spokesman for the Defence Ministry’s Joint Staff Office told reporters. Analysts say China’s latest aerial manoeuvres are part of a calculated strategy – a blend of military posturing and reconnaissance designed to probe Japan’s defences. The flights were likely a test of both the drones’ performance and Japan’s response, according to Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an associate professor at Tokyo International University’s Institute for International Strategy. “The implications are long term, and we can expect China to make such activities routine in the coming years, particularly given their claims and posture in the areas surrounding Japan,” he said. ‘Intensifying’ incursions The skies and seas around Japan have been a flashpoint in Sino-Japanese relations for years. Chinese coastguard vessels have frequently encroached on waters surrounding the disputed Diaoyu Islands, which Tokyo administers and calls the Senkakus. The islands, located in the East China Sea, are claimed by both nations. In August, Tokyo called out Beijing for what it described as the first confirmed incursion by a Chinese military aircraft into Japanese airspace, labelling it a “serious violation” of sovereignty. Last week’s drone flights, analysts warn, are just the latest chapter in an escalating campaign of intimidation. The flights marked a “continuation and expansion” of China’s “aggressive behaviour” towards Japan, said Grant Newsham, senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. “It has been steadily, albeit gradually, intensifying in terms of frequency and locations where such activities are carried out.” Newsham pointed to China’s growing arsenal of drones and naval assets, describing them as increasingly “weapons-capable” and “threatening”. “Expect to see more Chinese activity, more often, and in more places,” he added. Expect to see more Chinese activity, more often, and in more places Grant Newsham, Japan Forum for Strategic Studies Beijing’s drone activity is about more than just rattling Tokyo. Analysts see it as a move to bolster military capabilities for a potential conflict with the United States and Japan. The Miyako Strait, where the drones flew, is a critical chokepoint for the Chinese military in the event of hostilities. Yoichiro Sato, a professor of Asia-Pacific studies at Japan’s Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, said the addition of drones enhanced the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to monitor and secure naval passage throughout the region. “The addition of maritime surveillance capability … enhances PLA naval capability to safely pass through the Miyako Strait,” Sato said. While the GJ-2 drone is not the most advanced in China’s arsenal, its deployment signals Beijing’s intent to refine its surveillance and attack capabilities, he said. China’s actions fall into what military strategists call “grey zone tactics” – aggressive manoeuvres that stop short of outright conflict but impose strategic and economic costs on adversaries. Sato noted that repeated drone flights could force Japan to scramble fighter jets more frequently, driving up defence costs. The aim was to “impose a heavier economic cost of defence upon Japan”, he said. Tokyo, already wary of China’s growing military assertiveness, has responded by ramping up its own aerial defences. If Chinese drones begin entering Japanese airspace more frequently, analysts say Japan is likely to expand its own drone fleet. Washington has bolstered its own drone presence on Okinawa in recent years and signed agreements with Japan to develop technology to counter drone threats. The importance of such measures has been illustrated by recent conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and 2023’s Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where drones have played a pivotal role on the battlefield.

The rattle of Okinawa: Chinese drones probe Japan’s defences

Japan’s air force scrambled jets to shadow the drones, which analysts believe were probing Tokyo’s military readiness and assertiveness