Will Trump’s pressure tactics derail hopes for a nuclear deal with Iran?

Analysts suggest Trump’s strategy may either force a breakthrough or trigger further confrontation, depending on Tehran’s response

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US President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference in White House on February 4. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 1:52pm, 10 Feb 2025Updated: 3:12pm, 10 Feb 2025

The United States and Iran are expected to engage in talks in the coming months on a “verifiable nuclear peace agreement” proposed last week by Donald Trump, despite Tehran’s objections to negotiating under the “maximum pressure” sanctions regime that the US president has reinstated.

While the potential for a new agreement has sparked cautious optimism, experts argue that the path to a deal remains fraught with obstacles. Iran’s leadership has expressed reluctance to make a deal under duress, while Trump’s divided administration and competing priorities on regional security and missile development could complicate efforts to reach a comprehensive accord.

After signing a national security presidential memorandum ordering tighter sanctions enforcement last Tuesday, Trump said he was doing so reluctantly for political reasons, claiming he “would much prefer” to strike a deal that guaranteed Iran would not develop nuclear warheads and let it “peacefully grow and prosper”.

In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump described reports claiming that the US was working with Israel on plans “to blow Iran into smithereens” as “greatly exaggerated”.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference in the White House on February 4 in which they discussed Iran’s nuclear programme. Photo: EPA-EFE

“We should start working on it [the agreement] immediately, and have a big Middle East celebration when it is signed and completed,” Trump said.

While the comments appeared to be a U-turn by Trump, who withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear peace agreement with Iran in 2018 during his first term as president, analysts said he has always wanted to strike a deal of his own with Iran.