Ukraine war: North Korean troops’ no-show down to fears of capture, intelligence leak?

Intelligence leaks and concerns over being captured could be behind the no-show for North Korean troops in recent weeks at the front lines of Russia’s war with Ukraine. Observers say, however, that as long as Pyongyang can gain from the conflict in terms of material support, it will continue to provide military aid to Moscow. Citing South Korea’s intelligence agency, the Yonhap news outlet reported on Tuesday that North Korean troops had not been fighting in Russia’s Kursk Oblast since mid-January. “One reason for this may be the occurrence of many casualties, but the exact details are still being monitored,” the National Intelligence Service said in a statement. Last Friday, a Ukrainian military official said North Korean troops had not been seen on the front lines in Kursk for several weeks, adding that they were “probably forced to withdraw after suffering heavy losses”. Nah Liang Tuang, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said one reason for the troop withdrawal might be due to last month’s capture of two North Korean soldiers sent to fight in Kursk. The duo have been interrogated for intelligence and at least one has declined eventual repatriation back to his home country, preferring to remain in Ukraine. “These prisoners of war and any future POWs which may fall into Ukrainian hands represent potential leakage of valuable intelligence to Kyiv and Seoul, while providing propaganda victories for the Ukrainians,” Nah noted. “Pyongyang wants to avoid such future incidents,” he said, adding that due to the “catastrophic” casualties suffered by North Korean troops, Pyongyang might have thought it prudent to withdraw remaining soldiers and regroup. This, he said, would allow the troops to better cope “with drone warfare and other well-honed defensive tactics employed by battle-hardened Ukrainian soldiers” in future. Western officials said in recent weeks that out of some 11,000 troops sent by North Korea to fight for Russia, 1,000 had been killed in just three months. ‘Stick it out with Russia till the end’ Despite the setback, Nah said it was unlikely Pyongyang would cease or even significantly reduce military aid to Moscow so long as it could continue to receive food, petroleum products and hi-tech military hardware or technology transfers from Russian President Vladimir Putin. If the tide of war turned against Moscow and round-the-clock air strikes against Russian targets became a reality for the Kremlin, Nah said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un might even dispatch air defence artillery troops manning surface-to-air missile batteries to help in the ongoing battle. It will be hard to back out now given how deeply North Korea is involved Gabriela Bernal, European Centre for North Korean Studies’ non-resident fellow Gabriela Bernal, a non-resident fellow at the European Centre for North Korean Studies, echoed the sentiment on Pyongyang’s support for Moscow. “It will be hard to back out now given how deeply North Korea is involved, so it will likely have to stick it out with Russia till the end, especially given their mutual defence treaty signed last year,” Bernal said. First signed in Pyongyang last June during a state visit by Putin, the treaty obliges both countries to provide immediate military help to each other using “all means” necessary if either faces “aggression”. Bernal said if US President Donald Trump was able to change America’s North Korea policy to one that was open to arms control and some level of sanctions relief, it was possible Kim could switch focus away from Russia and Ukraine toward resuming diplomacy with Washington. “Ultimately, North Korea’s main priority remains to acquire a security guarantee from the US. As such, getting a deal with America would far outweigh any other foreign policy issues,” she added. After being inaugurated last month, Trump said he planned to reach out to the North Korean leader whom he had met on three separate occasions between 2018 and 2019 during his first term in office. Trump has previously described their relationship as “very, very good” and has referred to Kim as a “smart guy”. Trump described the reclusive regime as a “nuclear power” last month, raising concerns Washington could be moving toward recognising Pyongyang as a nuclear-armed state. Since Trump was last in office, Kim has vowed to “exponentially” boost his country’s nuclear arsenal and ramp up weapons testing, including of missiles that could potentially strike continental America and overwhelm US treaty ally South Korea. On Monday, Pyongyang condemned US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s characterisation of the regime in a January 30 interview as a “rogue state”, calling it a “hostile remark” and a “grave political provocation”. Khang Vu, a visiting scholar at Boston College studying East Asian Security, said one of the most important reasons for North Korea’s withdrawal from frontline combat was the need for Pyongyang to retrain troops who had not engaged in major combat since the Cold War. “The past three months have been a steep learning curve for them. Furthermore, the weak coordination in combat between Russian and North Korean forces led to a few cases of friendly fire,” Vu added. As Pyongyang prepared to send reinforcements, it also needed to update its field manual and have troops from the first wave share their experiences, Vu said, adding that the goal was to minimise casualties. “But there is a financial incentive here too. The more North Korean troops survive, the more money the government can make. Lowering casualties also helps the regime avoid domestic criticism.” He added that North Korea, which had doubled down on help to Moscow, “has no better alternatives”. “China has been lukewarm to North Korea’s missile and nuclear programme, while the Trump administration has not laid out a concrete proposal for a resumption of dialogue”, Vu said. Beijing wants to preserve stability on the Korean peninsula and has tried to tame Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons ambitions. Even though China has refrained from commenting on the strengthened Russia-North Korea partnership, the growing military and defence missiles transfer from Moscow to Pyongyang is said to be a concern for Beijing. “North Korea is right now adopting a wait-and-see approach toward the Trump administration. However, if it deems Trump’s offer is not good enough, its help to Russia will continue,” Vu added.

Ukraine war: North Korean troops’ no-show down to fears of capture, intelligence leak?

Observers also say Pyongyang is in too deep with Russia over its war, and still stands to gain from providing military aid