Israel’s moves to secure Lebanon, Syria borders risk further destabilisation: analysts

Name: Ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah militants takes effect
Uploaded: 2025-01-30T10:00:13.000Z
Duration: 3 min 29 s
Description: Ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah militants takes effect

Experts warn Israel’s extended occupation may undermine Lebanon’s government, embolden Hezbollah and raise uncertainties in post-war Syria

Reading Time:4 minutes

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Residents carry a man injured by Israeli fire to safety in Borj El Mlouk, in the outskirts of Kfar Kila, on January 26. Israeli troops fired at residents of south Lebanon on January 26, killing two and wounding 32, health officials said, as hundreds of people tried to return to their homes on the deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw from the area. Photo: AFP

Tom Hussain

Published: 6:00pm, 30 Jan 2025

Israel’s continued occupation of southern Lebanon and adjacent areas of Syria reflects a US-backed move to secure the Jewish-majority state’s borders, analysts say.

But by attempting to impose an “ideal solution” to the threat posed by Lebanese Hezbollah and address uncertainty arising from the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, analysts warned that Israel could destabilise the new non-hostile governments of both countries, thereby fuelling threats against itself.

Israel’s refusal to withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon on Sunday, in accordance with the terms of a ceasefire struck in November with Iranian ally Hezbollah, “presents an immediate political challenge” to the new government in Beirut, as well as to US President Donald Trump’s administration, said Kristian Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Houston-based Rice University’s Institute for Public Policy.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the decision two days before the January 25 deadline, claiming that the agreement “has not yet been fully enforced by the Lebanese state” by deploying troops in previously Hezbollah-dominated southern areas and ensuring the group had withdrawn its forces to the Litani River, about 30km north of the Israeli border.

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Ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah militants takes effect

Israel’s ambassador to the US, Michael Herzog, last week acknowledged facing challenges in persuading the Trump administration to support the decision.