Southeast Asia acknowledges China’s influence, but South China Sea tensions sow distrust – study

Southeast Asian elites prefer an Asean-led regional order, despite acknowledging China’s growing influence, but the bloc faces its own challenges

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The national flags of the various countries attending the 35th Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit are displayed in Bangkok. Photo: AP

Published: 7:30pm, 21 Nov 2024

An overwhelming majority of Southeast Asian elites prefer the Asean bloc to lead the region, especially as issues such as China’s assertive actions in South China Sea tensions strain relations with Beijing, according to a new study.

The findings come from the study, “Elite Perceptions of a China-Led Regional Order in Southeast Asia” by National University of Singapore political science professors Selina Ho and Terence Lee. The study surveyed nearly 600 politicians, business leaders, diplomats, bureaucrats, and experts from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam as “they are directly responsible for formulating their countries’ foreign policy.”

Respondents said that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) was the most influential entity in the region, followed by China and then the United States, indicating that Chinese influence is “substantial, even if it is not pre-eminent at present” amid apparent efforts by Beijing to sway the hierarchical order of Southeast Asia.

Although China has repeatedly reassured its neighbours that it does not seek to dominate the region, its rhetoric and behaviour reflect two intrinsic motivations, “to blunt US influence and ensure that the region aligns with its core interests, and to establish a regional identity that is distinct from the West’s,” the study notes.

“If China cannot convince its closest neighbours that it is fit to lead the region, it will face an even greater challenge in garnering support to lead globally,” Ho and Lee added.

An overwhelming 80 per cent of respondents said they identified the most with Asean, with China following distantly at 10 per cent, and the US at 5 per cent.

Yet 70 per cent also believed their countries’ policymakers were close to China, except the Philippines, where more than half said their policymakers were not.