Singapore seeks to navigate US-China rivalry regardless of presidential election outcome

The city state has adapted well to the rivalry and is unlikely to shift from its hedging policy between Washington and Beijing, analysts say

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Former US president Donald Trump in New York in May and US Vice-President Kamala Harris in Washington in July. Photo: Reuters

Published: 3:30pm, 27 Oct 2024Updated: 8:26am, 28 Oct 2024

As the United States presidential election draws closer, Singapore is keeping a close eye on how the outcome could affect its careful tightrope walk between the world’s largest economy and China amid their ongoing geopolitical rivalry and trade war.

The city state has been adapting well to the evolving realities arising from the fallout of the US-China rivalry, analysts say.

Regardless of who becomes the next US leader following the November 5 election – Vice-President Kamala Harris or ex-president Donald Trump – the fundamentals of America’s foreign policies towards China and Asia are unlikely to change drastically as much of the uncertainty has been factored in, according to analysts.

“While Trump may inject greater uncertainty and unpredictability, a Harris presidency will not and cannot suddenly engender stability, peace and predictability,” said Dylan Loh, an assistant professor at Nanyang Technological University’s Public Policy and Global Affairs division.

Last week, Singapore’s Senior Minister and former prime minister Lee Hsien Loong warned that if Trump were to slap tariffs of 60 per cent or higher on Chinese goods in his second term as promised, it would put Singapore in “uncharted territory”.

“On the American side, there are not many issues where the Democrats and the Republicans agree on, but this is one [US policy towards China]. And that is a very serious matter. So whether it is Harris or whether it is Trump, that is not going to be changing,” Lee said at a business event last week.

A second Trump term would likely spell more disruptions for American allies and other countries, he said. “In particular, I think, what you can anticipate is that his attitude towards allies, towards America’s friends, will be different from what the Democrat administration has done in these last four years,” Lee added.