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India-Pakistan formal dialogue unlikely as cross-border terrorism remains sticking point

  • Analysts say a thaw in tensions could come with a changing of the guard in Pakistan, with both sides keen to not let ties worsen amid significant challenges
  • Pakistan can do more to stop terrorism perceived to be emanating from its soil as part of efforts to improve ties, they add

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Border Security Force personnel patrol along the border fence during a cold, foggy morning near India-Pakistan Wagah border about 40km from Amritsar in December 2022. Photo: AFP
Rising tensions between India and Pakistan over alleged extrajudicial killings by New Delhi are seen to be largely rhetorical, but formal dialogue remains unlikely, with cross-border terrorism expected to be the main sticking point for both sides.
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The latest war of words centres on a Guardian report alleging India’s foreign intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), had assassinated 20 militants in Pakistan from a group listed by the United States as a “terrorist organisation”.

Though Delhi has not officially reacted to the news, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in a TV interview last Saturday said his country would kill anyone who disturbed the peace in India and fled to Pakistan, in response to a question about the report’s authenticity.

India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has said his country will kill anyone who disturbed the peace in India and fled to Pakistan. Photo: Pool via Reuters
India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has said his country will kill anyone who disturbed the peace in India and fled to Pakistan. Photo: Pool via Reuters

Pakistan’s foreign office then condemned Singh’s statement as “provocative”. Islamabad warned that Indian officials’ “myopic and irresponsible behaviour” could put regional peace at risk, while also calling for accountability from Delhi and claiming to have “irrefutable evidence” linking India to the extrajudicial killings.

Before the verbal brawl, Pakistan’s foreign affairs minister Ishaq Dar had expressed a desire to resume trade with India, even as Islamabad later backtracked from the statement.

Political pundits were optimistic that a thaw in long-standing tensions between India and Pakistan could come with a change of the guard in Islamabad.

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Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute, said that given both countries were facing significant challenges, Delhi and Islamabad had a strong interest in not allowing their relationship to worsen.

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