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Analysis | Moscow attack likely involved more than 1 Isis branch, Russia in its ‘crosshairs’ for a long time

  • Isis-C is the ‘main perpetrator’ and received ‘some help’ from Isis-K with the latter present in Moscow before the attack, analysts say
  • The tactics employed by the Moscow attackers and a related American warning boost the impression that Isis was involved

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Gunmen moving towards the doors of the Crocus City Hall outside Moscow on March 22, 2024. Assailants opened fire ahead of a concert, killing more than 100. Photo: AFP
Tom Hussain
More than one branch of the terrorist group Islamic State (Isis) may have perpetrated the murderous attack on Moscow’s Crocus City concert hall based on circumstantial evidence, according to security analysts.

The claim of responsibility by Isis should be taken at face value because it was issued through the group’s usually reliable official media wing, they said.

“There is no question as to the authenticity of the statement, only as to how direct the connection is between Isis leaders and the actual assailants,” said Evan Kohlmann, a New York-based terrorism analyst and CEO of Cloudburst, a cyber intelligence consultancy.

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Isis has previously claimed responsibility “for a handful of terrorist attacks by individuals who were clearly inspired by it specifically, but for whom there is not always clear evidence of a command-and-control relationship”, Kohlmann said.

Russia has launched investigations into the attack in Moscow. Its FSB security service is pointing the finger at Ukraine’s involvement, saying “all four terrorists” among 11 suspects behind the attack had contacts in Ukraine and were heading to the Ukrainian border when they were arrested. A spokesman for Kyiv’s military spy agency dismissed claims of Ukrainian involvement, saying they “have nothing in common with reality”.

Despite being defeated in Iraq and Syria by a US-led global coalition in 2019 and losing all the territory that comprised the so-called caliphate it established there in 2013, Isis remains a serious threat to global security.

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