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Why Pakistan’s unstable coalition won’t faze China, IMF: ‘everyone understands army is in charge’
- The Pakistani military’s stern oversight will also be reassuring to the country’s other major creditors Saudi Arabia and the UAE, analysts say
- A weak coalition led by ex-PM Shehbaz Sharif and the military’s preferred parties is also what the country’s establishment wished for
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Pakistan’s coalition government formed after a deeply controversial election is not expected to last, analysts said, but major creditors such as China and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will stay the course on current ties despite concerns over further instability.
After the February 8 polls, the country’s powerful military-led establishment herded together six political parties to form the next government – an arrangement observers say is likely to unravel long before its five-year term is up.
“There are plenty of reasons to think this government won’t last long,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, a Washington-based think tank.
There is friction between the two biggest partners in the incoming coalition – the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) of three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and ex-president Asif Ali Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).
The new government would also be under intense pressure from jailed ex-leader Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which backed independent candidates comprising the single largest grouping in the National Assembly.
Despite being imprisoned, the former cricket star could still upset the applecart by ordering the PTI to boycott parliament, or by confronting the new government and its military overseers with violent public protests against reportedly widespread electoral fraud.
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