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Explainer | Could Myanmar’s military be deposed by armed groups fighting across the country?

  • The junta is facing its gravest challenge to date after armed groups launched coordinated attacks in Shan State
  • There has been speculation on whether the attacks had the tacit support of China, which has called for the protection of its citizens

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Members of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army at a town in Myanmar’s northern Shan State. It is one of around a dozen ethnic rebel groups in Myanmar fighting against the military. Photo: AFP
A shocking assault by armed groups across Myanmar’s northeast Shan State has caught the ruling junta off-balance, forcing apparent mass surrenders of its troops and a retreat from key border areas, home to billion-dollar scam centres and crucial trade zones with China.

Over 200,000 people have been displaced so far in the affected regions, according to the UN, as fighting between the military and various armed groups escalates across the country.

To the pro-democracy rebels who have opposed the junta through years of guerilla combat, these ripples are fast becoming a wave, which will soon consume a loathed military that seized power in a 2021 coup.

But the military, led by Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, has shown its ruthless reflexes to maintain power time and time again, razing villages and killing indiscriminately when it strikes back.

The days ahead are fraught with uncertainty, experts say, but one thing is clear: the junta now faces its gravest challenge yet.

What is Operation 1027’s ultimate aim?

On October 27, a trio of ethnic armed groups under the banner of the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched a coordinated attack against Myanmar’s junta forces in northern Shan state. The region, next to China’s Yunnan, is a gateway for billions of dollars of trade and a base for some of the country’s most nefarious criminal enterprises, from drugs and human trafficking to scam centres.

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