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Myanmar
This Week in AsiaPolitics

Myanmar’s ‘little regard’ for Asean on show as it turns to China, India, Russia for leverage

  • Since its 2021 coup, Myanmar’s junta has largely refused to cooperate with Asean and now sees other ties as a route to legitimacy, analysts say
  • The bloc’s Five-Point Consensus peace plan continues to be ignored, while the generals tout meetings with ‘friends’ in a bid to convince the public

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A seat reserved for the leader of Myanmar is seen left empty on Wednesday during the Asean-Japan Summit in Indonesia. Photo: AP
Maria Siow
Shut out of the Asean summit last week, Myanmar’s junta held its own meetings with representatives from China, India and Thailand in a bid to use its larger neighbours to leverage against the regional bloc and boost the generals’ “legitimacy”, analysts said.
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As leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations met in Indonesia, senior Myanmar leaders met Chinese, Thai and Indian envoys and military figures to discuss defence cooperation, trade and bilateral projects.
Peter Mumford, practice head for South and Southeast Asia at Eurasia Group, said Myanmar’s junta sees relations with key players such as China, India, Thailand and Russia as a way of mitigating and leveraging against Asean’s efforts to put pressure on the regime to end its political crisis.

Myanmar’s generals “can afford to be uncooperative”, he said, because they are confident Asean won’t resort to tough measures, such as expelling it from the bloc.

“[The regime] has little regard for the damage its intransigence is doing to the unity, credibility and reputation of the regional bloc,” Mumford said.

Despite agreeing to it, Myanmar’s junta has continued to ignore the Five-Point Consensus peace plan, which calls for a dialogue among all parties in the crisis and an immediate halt to violence in the country, among other things.
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On Tuesday, Southeast Asian leaders decided that strife-torn Myanmar would not take over the rotating leadership of the bloc as scheduled in 2026, partly due to the ongoing violent civil war in the country after the 2021 coup and the regime’s continued detention of former civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
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