Thailand election 2023: will vote outcome sway Bangkok and Asean stance on Myanmar engagement?

Thai policy could shift to less support for the junta if the pro-democracy Move Forward Party becomes a coalition partner in the new government, observers note

Working with Asean to spur talks between Myanmar’s National Unity Government and the junta could better serve Bangkok’s long-term interests, analyst says

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Pita Limjaroenrat (left), the Move Forward Party’s candidate for prime minister, greets supporters during a general election campaign in Bangkok, Thailand, on May 4, 2023. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 7:00pm, 11 May 2023Updated: 6:27pm, 12 May 2023

Any new government to emerge after Thailand’s election this Sunday will face the immediate challenge of conflict-ravaged Myanmar, with pressure building on Bangkok to take a tougher line with a neighbour whose economy – and military – is deeply linked to its own.

While Myanmar’s crisis has not featured significantly on the campaign trail, observers say the stakes are too high for it to be ignored by the next administration.

Pre-pandemic, an estimated 2 million Myanmar migrants were living and working in Thailand, and tens of thousands more are believed to have entered the kingdom since the February 2021 coup.

The conflict has also on occasion caused terror to those on the Thai side of the 2,400km land border when Myanmar military planes attacked outposts of ethnic minority insurgent armies in the frontier areas.

Pro-democracy groups opposed to the royalist-military establishment currently in power are projected to have an upper hand in Sunday’s vote. Unofficial results could be released on the same evening, but official ones could take weeks to be certified.

James Char, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said any new administration would have to tread carefully in its ties with the Myanmar junta.

“Whether or not there is going to be a change in government … we can expect Bangkok to continue maintaining contact with the military junta in Myanmar,” Char said, adding that Thailand would continue pushing for peace in Myanmar through dialogue along with other regional countries.