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China-Japan relations: past the point of no return amid Tokyo’s military build-up?
- China sees Japan’s huge defence spending plans as ‘hostile’ while Tokyo views Beijing recent ‘coercive’ actions as ‘existential threats’, analysts say
- They caution ‘a reciprocal quid pro quo’ on Taiwan may be required for the two sides to maintain their ‘mutually beneficial yet awkward relationship’
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Japan’s plans to boost military spending to levels not seen since World War II look set to further weaken its already shaky ties with China, as the long-time regional rivals eye each other with increasing suspicion.
Tokyo last month referred to China as a “threat” for the first time in a draft of its revised National Security Strategy, as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida justified doubling Japan’s defence budget over the next five years by saying his country and its people were at a “turning point in history”.
He cited at the time growing tensions over Taiwan and Tokyo’s worries for disputed islands in the East China Sea that it currently controls – but to that list could be added Beijing’s militarisation of the South China Sea and its “growing track record of coercive behaviour”, said Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor of politics and international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University.
“Each are existential threats to Japan’s economy by potentially disrupting sea lines of communication and weaponising technology and rare earth supply chains,” Nagy said, further warning that Tokyo’s ties with Beijing may already “have crossed the Rubicon” – or passed the point of no return.
China certainly sees Japan’s moves to boost defence spending and attain so-called counterstrike capabilities as “hostile” to Chinese interests, said Andrew Yeo, a politics professor and director of Asian studies at The Catholic University of America in Washington.
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