Explainer | Malaysia election: Umno faces fierce fight for Malay bloc, youth vote, and a supermajority

Analysts say it might be a ‘tall order’ for any group to win a supermajority this time, given the larger number of parties and coalitions in the fight

At least three coalitions that include Umno and PAS will vie for the Malay-Muslim vote, which accounts for two-thirds of the population, while first-time youth voters are a wild card

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A customer at a restaurant watches the announcement made Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob dissolving the parliament and calling for general elections at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on October 10, 2022. Photo: Reuters

Published: 6:53pm, 10 Oct 2022Updated: 1:45pm, 12 Oct 2022

As Malaysians head to the polls later this year after Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob on Monday dissolved parliament, political analysts have their eyes on the fight for Malay and youth votes.

Malaysia’s Election Commission is expected to meet this week to decide on the polling date, which must be within 60 days from the day parliament is dissolved.

The 15th national election comes four years after voters, fed-up over entrenched corruption and rising living costs, unseated Barisan Nasional, a powerful coalition led by Ismail Sabri’s United Malays National Organisation (Umno) party that had held power since Malaysia’s independence from the British in 1957.

But the shock 2018 victory by Pakatan Harapan (PH), led by veteran politician Mahathir Mohamad, collapsed just 22 months into its term following a coup. This shifted the balance of power back to Umno just as the Covid-19 pandemic became full-blown in early 2020.

In recent months, strong mandates at local elections have further galvanised Umno, whose top leaders have intensified pressure on Prime Minister Ismail Sabri to call for early polls this year despite the threat of widespread floods during the monsoon season.

The opposition has also accused Umno’s top leadership of trying to remove themselves from a slew of corruption trials that began soon after the party was voted out in 2018, and especially after Umno heavyweight and ex-premier Najib Razak failed to overturn his conviction for corruption linked to the 1MDB scandal and began his 12-year jail sentence in August.

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New battle lines

In every national election, the battle for the Malay-Muslim vote is fiercest, given the bloc accounts for more than 60 per cent of Malaysia’s 32 million people.