OpinionChina’s vague stance on Russia’s Ukraine attack contrary to its core interest

As Russia launches action against Ukraine and most of the world rallies around Kyiv, the limits of China’s new, more muscular, foreign policy have grown more apparent.

Ukraine poses a compelling question for Beijing: How to manage relations between Russia and the United States as a new era of great power rivalry ramps up. While Russia is masterful at creating – and taking advantage of – tensions, Beijing’s tendency is to be passive. Last weekend, at the 58th Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi said the security of one country should not be achieved at the expense of others, and that regional security should not be based on strengthening blocs.

The Ukraine crisis has thus become a litmus test for what the Chinese media outlet Global Times described as an unprecedented China-Russia relationship to start a new era of international relations that is not defined by the US.

Both have increased their economic cooperation, with overlapping alignments on international issues. But Beijing craves stability for its brand of “win-win” economic diplomacy and benefits from the international order, even though it is bent on inexorably shaping it more to its liking. While China is reforming the People’s Liberation Army, this is still a work in progress – in any case, it is doubtful Beijing will be able, or willing, to add the stick to its basket of carrots.