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North Korea nuclear crisis
This Week in AsiaPolitics

North Korea’s ICBM test: the storm before the calm?

Now the mainland United States is within range of a nuclear strike, Kim Jong-un may be ready to come to the table

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North Korea test launches an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the US mainland. Photo: EPA
Ralph Cossa
Counter-intuitive as it may sound, the latest North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile test may actually set the stage for a reduction of tensions, rather than an exacerbation of the “crisis”. It may also set Washington up for a fool’s choice if we fail to understand Pyongyang’s logic and ultimate end game.

The United States, as it always does, is calling for UN Security Council action which is likely to result in Washington and Beijing arguing over the next few days (weeks? months?) about the next round of “severe penalties”. But Pyongyang may already be preparing its next move.

A TV screen at Seoul Station reports that North Korea has tested an intercontinental ballistic missile it says can hit the US mainland. Photo: Kyodo
A TV screen at Seoul Station reports that North Korea has tested an intercontinental ballistic missile it says can hit the US mainland. Photo: Kyodo
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The test, according to official North Korean broadcasts, “meets the goal of the completion of the rocket weaponry system development set by the DPRK [Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea]”.

Pyongyang further announced that “Kim Jong-un declared with pride that now we have finally realised the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force.”

Trump’s nuclear standoff with North Korea: why this is no Cuban missile crisis

In short, Pyongyang seems to be telling us (my words, not theirs): “We have made our point. Now that Washington knows we can indeed strike anywhere we want in the mainland US, we might be ready to talk, provided the US and the international community is prepared to reward us, not for good behaviour [i.e. verifiable steps toward denuclearisation], but for the absence of bad behaviour [a halt in testing since the current testing cycle is complete].”

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