appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Daniel Yap

The sudden seizure of Singapore’s nine Terrex infantry carrier vehicles (ICVs) has sparked mixed reactions in the city state. Some have asked for Singapore to apologise to China and accede to the superpower’s demands. Others have insisted that it escalate the row to recover the hardware.
Still others, including Singapore Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan and Professor Wang Gungwu of the National University of Singapore, think the incident is merely a ripple on the tide of Sino-Singapore relations, and will subside soon enough.
Yet the signs of strain are showing between the two nations. Some Chinese bristle at the reminder that Singapore keeps up official relations with Taiwan, which it views as a renegade province. Some Singaporeans chafe at the perceived petty bullying by a more powerful country.
Now, more than a week after the seizure, are there signs of an early resolution?
Hong Kong: a deliberate choice
That the seizure took place in Hong Kong hints at China’s intentions. Singapore has been using APL to transport its military hardware for years and APL’s Kaohsiung-Singapore route passes through Xiamen
(廈門) and Hong Kong before going to Chiwan, Malaysia and then Singapore.
The vehicles had already been earmarked at Xiamen for seizure in Hong Kong, according to news agency FactWire, and it was sources in Chinese customs that tipped the press off about the seizure. The situation is too coincidental to ignore and appears to be a calibrated bilateral blow-up in Hong Kong, where it would be easier to contain any escalation.
WATCH: What’s going on with the Singaporean military vehicles in Hong Kong?


Pouncing on what appears to be a case of botched paperwork, China thought it opportune to use Hong Kong as a stage to send a message to both Singapore and Taiwan.
The three “Asian Tiger” economies have much in common but have three very different relationships with China. Hong Kong is indisputably Chinese territory. Taiwan has set its face against the influence of mainland China and the current government has refused to acknowledge the one-China policy. Independent Singapore maintains friendly relations with both mainland China and Taiwan but abides by the one-China principle. Singapore is a key influencer for diplomacy in Asean and beyond, and therefore integral to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) “One Belt, One Road” strategy.
A three-way dance
Taiwan’s relationship with China soured when President Tsai Ing-wen failed to disavow calls for Taiwanese independence and acknowledge China’s view of the one-China policy. Beijing cut off communications with Taipei in June after years of warming relations under the Kuomintang’s Ma Ying-jeou. This tactic of isolation is now being extended to Taiwan’s friends.
Inside the Terrex military vehicle at the centre of Singapore-China storm
This is not to say China doesn’t want to use the Terrex incident to impose itself on Singapore as well. Beijing still bristles from Singapore’s stand of supporting an international ruling that rejects China’s claim over parts of the South China Sea, and will want to pressure the city state to reconsider its position. But will Singapore buckle? It seems unlikely. This incident will most likely spur Singapore to cling resolutely to the rule of international law to recover its lost armoured carriers and resist bullying. After an initial shock, Singaporeans will galvanise against what is seen as petty meddling.
Severe consequences await Singapore if it gives in to China on either Taiwan or the South China Sea.
Singapore’s military relationship with Taiwan goes back to its early post-independence years – Operation Starlight began in 1975 and is an open secret. In the early days, at least two Taiwanese officers held the top posts in Singapore’s air force and navy.
Asean is Singapore’s backyard, and a bloc that the country benefits from being a part of. If Asean interests are jeopardised, then Singapore stands to lose out as well.
Delicate manoeuvring
Singapore is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and will have to move very delicately to preserve its well-being. Singapore will stay calm and simply wait for China to release the ICVs once it feels that the diplomatic capital from the seizure has been milked dry.
It may not be a quick resolution.
Singapore’s relationship with Taiwan will have to be pursued with more caution. Its physical constraints of having only 719 sq km of land have meant that it conducts overseas training exercises in several other countries, including Australia, Thailand and the United States.

This year, for example, it made a pact to expand training in Australia, more than doubling the 6,000 troops a year to 14,000.
Troop deployments in Taiwan under Operation Starlight have already come down to 3,000 a year from a peak of 15,000. It is unlikely that they will drop any further as this would hamper Singapore’s ability to conduct the large-scale training exercises it needs on Taiwan’s shores. Shipments for Starlight will have to steer clear of China’s shores. As Singapore is among the largest foreign investors in China, the fates of both economies are intertwined.
For Beijing, seizure of Singapore armoured vehicles is a low-risk shot across the bows
It is possible that, quietly, so as not to upset Taiwan and Asean neighbours, Singapore will increase its military exercises with the People’s Liberation Army, a trend it has followed over the last decade, and one that is especially prudent now with doubt hanging over America’s international role under President-elect Donald Trump. But Singapore cannot afford to fully ally itself to one world power or another. Not only would that ultimately result in vassaldom, it would also close it off to options to pursue international political, economic and social opportunities that serve its own national interest.
Daniel Yap is the publisher of The Middle Ground, an independent news portal based in Singapore


Beyond the Rose Garden and the military review, Trump and Xi get down to business

China’s next carrier could be its longest – what are Beijing’s plans?

Red carpet vs empty tarmac: Xi’s US welcome fuels debate over Takaichi’s no-show reception

Skydiving, whale watching and a burst of bookings as holidays extend for millions in China

Taiwan

Why Singapore can’t afford to be pushed around by China

More than a week after Hong Kong customs authorities impounded nine Terrex infantry carrier vehicles are there signs of a resolution?

FILE - In this undated file photo released by Xinhua News Agency, a Chinese H-6K bomber patrols the islands and reefs in the South China Sea. China is pitted against smaller neighbors in multiple disputes over islands, coral reefs and lagoons in waters crucial for global commerce and rich in fish and potential gas and oil reserves in the South China Sea. (Liu Rui/Xinhua via AP, File)

A Singaporean soldier uses a sighting device during a joint military exercise between Thailand, Singapore and the United States in Lopburi province, 180 km (112 miles) north of Bangkok, in this February 19, 2003 file photo. For nearly 30 years, the island state of Singapore, which lacks the space for large-scale military manoeuvres, has trained its troops in Taiwan under the code name Operation Starlight. To match feature ARMS SINGAPORE TAIWAN REUTERS/Sukree Sukplang/Files

Nine Singapore-made Terrex infantry carrier vehicles seized in Hong Kong lie under tarpaulin. Photo: AFP

How Singapore’s military vehicles became Beijing’s diplomatic weapon

One of the Singaporean armoured vehicles impounded in Hong Kong. Photo: SCMP Pictures

Armoured vehicles belonging to the Singapore military are seen covered with tarpaulin at a customs and excise facility in Hong Kong on November 25, 2016. Armoured vehicles and equipment belonging to the Singapore military were seized by Hong Kong customs at a major port in the city after arriving from Taiwan, Singapore's defence ministry said on November 24. / AFP PHOTO / Anthony WALLACE

The seizure of the military vehicles on a Singapore-bound cargo ship from Taiwan at the Kwai Chung container terminal. 28NOV16 SCMP/David Wong

The wreckage of a crashed F-5F jet is lifted by a crane in Hsinchu, northern Taiwan, 11 May 2007. Two Taiwanese fighter pilots and two Singaporean servicemen were killed when a F-5F jet crashed into a military compound during an exercise, defence minister Lee Jye said. TAIWAN OUT AFP PHOTO / AFP PHOTO / STR

Chang Hsien-Yao,a former deputy head of the Mainland Affairs Council,Taiwan, speaks on a forum at CityU. 29NOV16 SCMP/K. Y. Cheng

Singapore's Enviroment Minister Vivian Balakrishnan (R) speaks to an undentified delegate before the start of the 15th sub-regional ministerial steering committee (MSC) on Transboundary Haze Pollution in Kuala Lumpur on July 17, 2013. Enviroment ministers from Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand met on July 17 to discuss the hazardous smog that blights the region every year, but the worst-hit countries have held out little hope of an early solution. AFP PHOTO / MOHD RASFAN / AFP PHOTO / MOHD RASFAN

Chinas President Xi Jinping, left, and Singapores Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong applaud before a Memorandum of Understanding signing ceremony at the Istana or Presidential palace in Singapore Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015. (AP Photo/Joseph Nair, Pool)

This Week in Asia

Politics

News

Asia

China

Hong Kong

More than a week after Hong Kong customs authorities impounded nine Terrex infantry carrier vehicles are there signs of a resolution?


Why Singapore can’t afford to be pushed around by China

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}More than a week after Hong Kong customs authorities impounded nine Terrex infantry carrier vehicles are there signs of a resolution?

More than a week after Hong Kong customs authorities impounded nine Terrex infantry carrier vehicles are there signs of a resolution?