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Alan Robles

Raissa Robles

Less than two years before the Philippines chooses its next president, Ferdinand Marcos Jnr still has no candidate to carry his banner.
Sara Duterte-Carpio, his estranged vice-president and fiercest political rival, has already declared her intention to run and remains the early front runner, despite an impeachment trial that could bar her from politics.
Marcos said on August 14 that he would “certainly endorse a candidate” in 2028 but added: “Who that is I cannot tell you because even I don’t know.”
The one candidate he almost certainly will not support is Duterte-Carpio, daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte. Their 2022 alliance helped unite two of the Philippines’ most powerful political dynasties before collapsing into open war.
By launching her 2028 presidential bid earlier this year, the vice-president set up a succession battle that could decide not only who controls the Malacanang presidential palace after Marcos’ single, constitutionally limited six-year term, but also whether the country swings back towards Duterte-style strongman politics and a more China-friendly foreign policy.

On paper, Marcos’ former allies have rarely looked more vulnerable.
Rodrigo Duterte is in The Hague awaiting trial at the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity, while key allies of the family have been arrested on plunder charges.
At home, the Marcos administration has also allowed the machinery of government to move against Duterte-Carpio, who faces impeachment on allegations of corruption and betrayal of public trust.
A conviction on just one charge would be enough to remove her from office and bar her from future elections.
Yet Duterte-Carpio is still standing, and gaining ground. A June poll by WR Numero Uno showed her satisfaction rating rising to 55 per cent, from 33 per cent in March, while Marcos stood at 36 per cent.
Recent surveys by Pulse Asia Research Organisation, OCTA Research, WR Numero Research and Momentum Research have also shown her leading the early 2028 presidential field.
Analysts are now questioning whether Marcos moved too late to prevent the Dutertes from regrouping before the next election.
Ronnie Holmes, Pulse Asia president and a professor of political science and development studies at De La Salle University in Manila, called it “the central political puzzle” of Philippine politics.
Marcos had opportunities to contain the Dutertes earlier, Holmes said – including during the first impeachment initiative against Duterte-Carpio last year – but “chose accommodation over confrontation”.
“That decision may have allowed the Duterte camp time to regroup and rebuild its political base,” Holmes told This Week in Asia.

The rivalry is all the more combustible because Marcos and Duterte-Carpio rode to power together in 2022, uniting two dynasties with deep emotional claims on Philippine politics.
Marcos, the son and namesake of the late dictator ousted in the 1986 People Power Revolution, returned his family to Malacanang.
Duterte-Carpio brought with her the political machine her father built first in Davao City and then nationally as president, a machine powered by Mindanao’s resentment towards Manila, anti-elite politics and the strongman image Duterte cultivated through his deadly war on drugs.
Their alliance collapsed into a fight neither side has yet been able to finish.
The Marcos administration’s main weapon is the ongoing Senate impeachment trial, in which prosecutors are seeking to prove allegations of corruption, unexplained wealth and betrayal of public trust.
Senior officials in the executive branch have testified in support of the case, including allegations that Duterte-Carpio plotted to assassinate the president.
On August 11, the justice department filed a “grave threats” charge against the vice-president over a 2024 video in which she claimed to have hired an assassin to kill Marcos, his wife and his cousin.
Duterte-Carpio has denied any wrongdoing and says the cases against her are politically motivated.
The Duterte camp’s counter-attacks have produced weaker results. Supporters tried to evoke the spirit of 1986 by gathering at the EDSA Shrine in Quezon City in November 2024 and calling for Marcos’ resignation, but the protests failed to draw either mass public support or backing from the military.


Duterte endurance
The failed protests did not end the feud, they merely brought home the stalemate. Marcos has wounded the Dutertes but not yet neutralised them, lending weight to their supporters’ taunts that the president is “weak”.
Dr Jean Franco, a political-science professor at the University of the Philippines, said Marcos’ strategy had produced “hits and misses”, which had made that perception seem “warranted”.
Holmes said Marcos was “only recently” doing enough to prevent a Duterte comeback – “and arguably too late”.
Part of the problem, analysts say, is that the Duterte brand has proved sturdier than the legal cases against the family.
“Their enduring strength lies in the image projected by the former president, a brand that is purportedly anti-elite and decisive,” Holmes said.
Vic Rodriguez, a Duterte ally, put it down to “the Duterte charisma”. He credited Duterte-Carpio with an ability to “effortlessly connects especially with the masses. Without a doubt her father’s daughter”.
“Marcos relies on brute force, Dutertes [rely] on near-cultic popularity”, Rodriguez said.
Rodrigo Duterte was the first Philippine president to come from Mindanao, a southern region long resentful of what many there see as the dominance of “imperial Manila”.
The family’s pride in being Mindanaoan “makes many people in Luzon uncomfortable”, Rodriguez said.
Holmes agreed, saying: “Their brand as political actors from the periphery resonates, particularly in Central Visayas [Region] and Mindanao, which together account for roughly a third of the electorate.”

Franco said the Dutertes had tapped into the “imperialist Manila discourse” while also reviving the appeal of strongman rule.
“The father was able to surface the strongman appeal that Filipinos think is the answer to the perception that Filipinos need to be disciplined to improve law and order,” she said.
The family still has a large core of self-styled “Duterte Diehard Supporters”, or DDS, a badge of loyalty that has survived years of criticism over the drug war.
For many supporters, the Dutertes’ coarse language and threats are not liabilities but proof of toughness.
Dr Nuelle Duterte, a cousin of Duterte-Carpio and niece of Rodrigo, put it plainly: “Their brutality appeals to people. Matapang sila [they’re fierce], vs Marcos, who is weak.”
Racing towards 2028
That contrast could matter even more as the 2028 race approaches. Analysts say a victory for Duterte-Carpio could alter both the Philippines’ foreign policy and its style of governance.
Her father sought closer ties with Beijing during his presidency, playing down the South China Sea dispute and cooling security ties with Washington – an approach Marcos has largely reversed.
A Duterte-Carpio win could therefore trigger “a significant foreign-policy recalibration towards China” and raise concerns about “institutional accountability” and democratic governance, Holmes said.
Rodriguez rejected this view, however. “Nothing is farther from the truth. It is classic Marcos disinformation that is unfounded,” he said. “A Sara Duterte [presidency] will be similar to her Davao legacy of professionalism, efficiency and the Duterte brand of peace and order.”

For now, the race is still up for grabs. A survey released last week by Momentum Research showed Duterte-Carpio leading the list of possible presidential candidates, picked by 44.2 per cent of respondents.
Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, who ran for president in 2022 and has said she is not interested in running again, came second with 23.8 per cent.
One option Marcos may still consider is persuading Robredo to run after all, paired with Senator Raffy Tulfo as her running mate.
Two surveys, by Octa Research in July and Tangere in May, suggested that hypothetical ticket could beat a Duterte-Carpio pairing with Senator Imee Marcos.
Val Villanueva, a former election strategist and now a finance columnist and analyst for Rappler, said current research data pointed to the Robredo-Tulfo tandem as “probably the most electorally competitive pairing against Sara Duterte”.


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The Philippines

Has Philippines’ Marcos missed his chance to stop the Dutertes?

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr during the Foreign Correspondents’ Association of the Philippines forum at a hotel in Manila on August 14. Photo: AFP

A protester holds an image of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte with a message reading “Hold Duterte Accountable!”, during a rally in Quezon City in March. Photo: EPA

President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr (centre right) and Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio (centre left) during the inauguration ceremony on June 30, 2022 in Manila. Photo: AP

Sara Duterte-Carpio speaks during a demonstration titled “Free Duterte Now” outside the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands, on July 29. Photo: AP

Leni Robredo ran for president in 2022. Photo: Office of the Vice-President/AP

People hold a rally outside the Senate in Pasay City in May, in support of Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio. Photo: EPA

Philippines’ Marcos slammed over US$3b family estate tax, says ‘very busy’ with government

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos answers a question during the Foreign Correspondents’ Association of the Philippines forum in Manila on Friday. Photo: AFP

Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, son of Ferdinand Marcos, his sister Imee (second from right) and their mother, former Philippine first lady Imelda Marcos(right) attend a ceremony to mark the late dictator’s 100th birthday in Batac, Ilocos Norte in 2017. Photo: AFP

Then Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos speaking to supporters from the balcony of Malacanang Palace in Manila following his oath-taking ceremony as victor in the 1986 Philippine presidential snap elections. Photo: Getty Images

Philippines’ Marcos uses national address to promise relief, but funding questions loom

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr delivers his fifth State of the Nation Address at the House of Representatives on Monday. Photo: AP

People wade through floodwaters brought by Tropical Storm Penha in Iligan, the Philippines’ Lanao del Norte province, on February 6. Photo: AFP

A customer (right) pays for rice sold at a market in Malabon City, Metro Manila, in March. Photo: EPA

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr delivers his fifth State of the Nation Address at the House of Representatives, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, on Monday. Photo: Reuters

A video of Vice-President Sara Duterte is shown during proceedings for her impeachment trial at the Philippine Senate in Pasay City, Metro Manila on July 22. Photo: AFP

Philippines’ impeachment trial: court ruling heightens stakes for VP Sara

Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio during a press conference in February in Manila. Photo: AP

Presiding Officer Senator Francis Escudero bangs the gavel during the impeachment trial of Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte at the Senate on Monday. Photo: EPA

A video clip of Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte is projected from a screen above senator judges during her impeachment trial, at the Philippine Senate in Pasay City, Metro Manila, on Tuesday. Photo: Pool via AP

National Bureau of Investigation Director Melvin Matibag takes an oath before testifying in the impeachment trial of Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte at the Senate on Tuesday. Photo: AFP

National Bureau of Investigation Director Melvin Matibag (right) holds a storage device containing evidence during his testimony in the impeachment trial of Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte on Tuesday. Photo: EPA

Why Sara Duterte is changing her tone on Philippines’ South China Sea conflict

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte delivers a statement following her impeachment on February 7. Photo: Reuters

A Philippine soldier peers through a telescope from a viewing deck in Philippine-occupied Thitu Island in the disputed South China Sea on February 21. Photo: Reuters

Paolo Duterte (left) the brother of Sara Duterte-Carpio chats with fellow representatives before the session starts on the voting to impeach her on May 11. Photo: AP

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Analysts say Marcos’ strategy of ‘accommodation over confrontation’ allowed the Duterte camp time to regroup and rebuild its political base


Analysts say Marcos’ strategy of ‘accommodation over confrontation’ allowed the Duterte camp time to regroup and rebuild its political base.


Has Philippines’ Marcos missed his chance to stop the Dutertes?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say Marcos’ strategy of ‘accommodation over confrontation’ allowed the Duterte camp time to regroup and rebuild its political base

Analysts say Marcos’ strategy of ‘accommodation over confrontation’ allowed the Duterte camp time to regroup and rebuild its political base