In Trump 2.0, Japan faces a familiar uncertainty

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sparked a wave of anxiety and cautious hope across Japan, a nation deeply intertwined with America’s economic and security policies. While the Japanese government offered measured congratulations, the public response has been far more conflicted: a mix of concern over tariffs, rising regional tensions and Trump’s “America First” isolationism. “Everything just seemed more unstable the last time he was president,” said Kanako Hosomura, a housewife from Yokohama. “I worry that is going to happen again.” Official congratulations swiftly followed Trump’s inauguration on Monday, with Emperor Naruhito sending a formal message and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba posting about his hopes for strengthening the Japan-US alliance on social media. “I look forward to collaborating with you to reinforce the enduring Japan-US partnership,” Ishiba wrote. Yet his optimism contrasted sharply with the mood among the wider public. A recent poll by the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper revealed that 57.8 per cent of respondents felt “anxious” or “worried” about Trump’s second term, while fewer than 35 per cent said they had high expectations for his presidency. “It seems to me that no leader is really thinking about what is best for ordinary people,” said Hosomura, citing fears that fresh barriers to trade would cause the price of daily necessities to rise and weaken the yen even further. Others, like Tokyo businessman Ken Kato, see Trump’s policies as a mixed bag. “I am quite positive about Trump’s return, although I of course do not agree with all of his ideas,” he said. Kato praised Trump’s hardline stance on illegal immigration and his push for fostering national pride through education – policies he believes Japan should emulate. But he was quick to criticise Trump’s climate change denial and decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. “It’s not a hoax,” Kato said firmly. “We feel it every year as temperatures continue to rise, and you don’t have to be a scientist to see that.” The businessman also expressed alarm over Trump’s trade policies, which many experts predict will disrupt global markets and exacerbate inflation. Perhaps the most pressing concern in Japan, however, is the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on regional stability. With China growing increasingly assertive and the threat posed by North Korea, many worry that Trump’s willingness to disengage from international commitments – such as supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia – could embolden adversaries closer to home. “Failing to defend Ukraine will effectively be a surrender to Russia, and that would send completely the wrong message,” Kato said. He fears that a US retreat in Europe could signal to Beijing that Washington might not defend Taiwan if it were invaded. “That would have very serious consequences for Japan and the whole of the Pacific region,” he added. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons. “It is worrying,” said Tomoko Oono, a retired bank worker from Saitama prefecture, north of Tokyo. “I just wonder how Trump plans to deal with all these different challenges at the same time.” Meanwhile, Japan is bracing for renewed economic tensions. Hiromi Murakami, a political-science professor at Temple University’s Tokyo campus, said Japan’s leaders were concerned about Trump’s potential demands for increased defence spending and higher costs for maintaining US troops stationed in Japan. “There is a lot of concern around the possibility of tariffs and how that will affect all the Japanese companies that export to the US, including those that have invested heavily in facilities in Canada and Mexico,” she said. They know what kind of person he is … I don’t think anyone is going to be surprised by anything he does this time Hiromi Murakami, political scientist Murakami also noted that Ishiba’s position was weaker than that of Japan’s former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who famously cultivated a close personal relationship with Trump during his first term. Ishiba has no such relationship, and his failure to secure a meeting with Trump before the inauguration underscores that reality, according to Murakami. For now, Japan is left to wait and watch as Trump’s second term unfolds. “Ishiba has little choice but to wait to hear Trump’s demands and then the government will respond,” Murakami said. “They know what kind of person he is,” she added. “While we expected more of him the first time around, I don’t think anyone is going to be surprised by anything he does this time. We can only hope that he learned from his first four years in power.”

In Trump 2.0, Japan faces a familiar uncertainty

Beneath the polite diplomacy lies a current of apprehension about what Donald Trump’s return means for Japan’s place in an upended world