India risks using ‘guesswork’ to form policy, with census delayed as election looms

India last carried out its 10-yearly census in 2011, but the mammoth undertaking has been postponed indefinitely

Without up-to-date data, government planners will struggle to determine economic and social trends and frame policy, analysts say

4-MIN READ4-MIN

Commuters walk on a platform after disembarking from a train in Mumbai, India. The nation’s last census was due in 2021. It is still unclear when it might happen. Photo: Reuters

Published: 11:30am, 24 May 2023Updated: 11:48am, 24 May 2023

India has held a census every 10 years since 1881, deploying an army of interviewers who fan out across the country, quizzing people about every aspect of their lives from housing and education to family size and income.

But when Covid-19 struck in 2020, the government delayed the survey, noted globally for its statistical rigour. Now all that seems certain is the headcount will not be held before the 2024 general election, which is making it tough to determine everything from India’s population size to its number of poor.

“The census is critical. You need basic data about the country for planning and, like any projection exercise, the greater the period over which you’re projecting, the less accurate the projection becomes,” said Pronab Sen, former chairman of the National Statistical Commission and the first chief statistician of India.

Taking figures from the last census, which was carried out in 2011, the UN forecast India’s 1.4-billion population would overtake China’s by the middle of this year. But the Indian government has given no calculation of its own.