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Flavio Romero Macau

If you had never heard of the Strait of Hormuz before, you probably have by now. Iran’s effective closure of the waterway, which usually carries about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas, has put severe pressure on the global economy.
Now, some analysts are warning a new flashpoint could emerge: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
That’s because on March 28, the Houthis, a military group that controls large parts of northern Yemen and is aligned with Iran, entered the war, launching missiles towards Israel for the first time since the war with Iran began.
Yemen is situated on one side of the strait, and the Houthis have previously attacked shipping in the Red Sea, causing major disruption in late 2023 and 2024.
Bloomberg now reports Iran has approached the Houthis to prepare for a similar campaign.
Here’s why all eyes will be back on the Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea, and what disruption of a second major chokepoint could mean for the world economy.

What is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is about 30km wide at its narrowest point. It is situated between Yemen on the Arabian peninsula to the northeast and Eritrea and Djibouti in Africa on the west.
Its name literally means “Gate of Tears” in Arabic, after its famously treacherous sailing conditions.
It has become so important because, along with the Suez Canal in Egypt, it allows ships to transit directly between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean by passing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Before the Suez Canal’s opening in the 19th century, ships had to travel all the way around the southern tip of Africa to join these two points.
An oil tanker leaving Saudi Arabia to go to the Netherlands, for example, only has to travel 12,000km (7,500 miles) if it goes via the Red Sea, compared with more than 20,000km (12,400 miles) going south around Africa.
As you would expect, that is much faster too. According to the US Energy Information Administration, a trip between the Arabian Sea and the Netherlands that takes 34 days the long way around is shortened to just 19 days.
What passes through it?
In normal times, as much as 14 per cent of global maritime trade goes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Detailed data on what passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is somewhat limited. But fossil fuels are a major component.
The International Energy Agency estimates that in 2025 about 4.2 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids crossed the Bab l-Mandeb Strait per day. That’s about 5 per cent of global production.

Given most ships use the Suez Canal as well, official data from the Suez Canal Authority allows us to paint a detailed picture of Red Sea shipping.
In the final quarter of 2025, about 40 per cent of the 3,426 ships passing through the Suez Canal transported fossil fuels: (1,330 oil tankers and 88 liquefied natural gas ships).
Bulk and general cargo made up another 40 per cent (1,339 ships), typically transporting agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat and soybeans, and also coal and iron ore. Container ships made about 13 per cent of the traffic (459 ships).
Notably, total traffic through the Red Sea has declined considerably since Houthi attacks on shipping in late 2023 and 2024, even though these attacks have largely stopped.
Can the strait be closed?
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait cannot be “closed” entirely. Its narrowest point is still a considerably wide waterway. And unlike the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is not a “cul-de-sac”, where the passage is closed at one end with only one way out. Ships can still exit to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.
That is little comfort for those bound for Asia, which would then have to round Africa to do so, adding weeks to the journey.
Notably, Saudi Arabia had already built a “Plan B” to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, called the East-West pipeline. This pipeline connects Abqaiq in the north with Yanbu on the Red Sea, and had already begun pumping oil at almost full capacity in response to the conflict.
But oil bound for Asia from this new exit point still has to pass through Bab el-Mandeb to avoid the long way around, meaning it could be disrupted.

We’ve been here before
To get a sense of how the Houthis could disrupt shipping again, we can look to the most recent Red Sea crisis.
According to the International Maritime Organization, 67 incidents were recorded between November 2023 and September 2024. Some ships only suffered minor equipment damage. But others faced severe fires, flooding and structural damage after being hit by missiles or drones.
However, there have been relatively few attacks since 2024. And the strait was never totally “closed” per se: some ships continued to pass through throughout the crisis.
The mere threat of attacks
These same tactics would probably apply today. But for shipping companies, the mere threat of attacks may be enough to slow or restrict shipping. There are significant risks to civilian crew, who face a threat to life.
Adding to this, insurance costs could become prohibitive enough to close the route in practical terms. Back in 2024, insurance costs were about 0.6 per cent of the value of the cargo on a ship. After the Red Sea crisis, this rose to as high as 2 per cent.
The effective closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb at the same time would be severely disruptive to global supply chains and the global economy.
Flavio Macau is Associate Dean at the School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, Australia. This article was first published by The Conversation.




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This Week in Asia

Opinion

Asia Opinion

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, any attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will pile further pressure on global supply chains


With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, any attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will pile further pressure on global supply chains.


War and conflict

Iran

Middle East

Yemen

Egypt

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, any attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will pile further pressure on global supply chains

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, any attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will pile further pressure on global supply chains