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Treethep Srisa-nga

On Sunday, Thai voters will do two things at once: elect a new House of Representatives and decide, via referendum, whether to begin drafting a new constitution.
Yet Thailand’s recent politics rarely run in a straight line from ballots to a functioning government. The question is whether the next administration can loosen the unelected constraints that shape who governs and what elected leaders can do.
Despite two elections since the 2019 transition from military rule, the pattern remains worrisome for the state of democracy in Thailand.
V-Dem’s 2025 Democracy Report classified the country as an electoral autocracy in 2024. Freedom House, in its 2025 assessment, rated Thailand “Not Free”, citing major setbacks including the dissolution of the Move Forward Party and the constitutional court-ordered removal of then prime minister Srettha Thavisin from the Pheu Thai Party in August 2024. The same court removed then prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, also from Pheu Thai, in August 2025.

Indeed, these episodes reflect the reach of Thailand’s veto architecture under the military-drafted 2017 constitution. The charter embeds unelected controls across the political arena, which in turn shape government formation, constrain elected officials and raise hurdles for constitutional changes. For the first five years after 2019, for instance, an appointed Senate voted alongside the House to select the prime minister.
That particular lever has now expired, but other veto chokepoints remain. The Senate still has confirmation powers, with amendment rules that can make constitutional change difficult. It also influences the “referee” institutions capable of blocking or undoing electoral outcomes. For instance, constitutional court judges require Senate approval, and election commissioners are appointed upon the Senate’s advice. Together, this structure has repeatedly tilted the balance between electoral mandates and elite gatekeeping through party dissolution petitions, bans and removals from office.
In this sense, a “more democratic” Thailand after February must mean more than another competitive election. It requires a change in the rules and constraints that determine whether popular mandates can be exercised, contested and renewed. Two tests matter. First, can the next government implement its mandate without being overridden or removed by unelected bodies? Second, if the referendum passes, will it produce a clear, significant and time-bound drafting route that can credibly narrow the veto structure’s reach?

This is why the referendum matters as much as who gets the most seats. It is the first required step in a multi-step charter rewrite process. A “yes” is necessary, but this alone does not guarantee change. A full rewrite must still clear a chain of steps and institutional hurdles.
Sunday’s vote is the first of three referendums required by the constitutional court to start the rewrite process. If the “yes” votes win, parliament will have to pass an enabling constitutional amendment under Section 256, which will require support from at least one-third of senators.
The amendment must also specify who will draft the new charter and under what rules. It will also be constrained by the court’s ruling barring a direct election of drafters. Once the drafting route is legally set, a second referendum will ask voters to endorse the framework and key content, followed by a third to ratify the final text. Each stage offers opportunities for delay or derailment through legal or procedural challenges. Clearing these hurdles will depend heavily on post-election coalition arithmetic.
Recent polls put the reformist People’s Party ahead in a three-way race, trailed by Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai. Coalition bargaining is therefore inevitable. The People’s Party has already ruled out backing another term for Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai or joining hands with the conservative Kla Tham Party. Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, by contrast, have kept their options open, which keeps multiple coalition configurations in play.

A People’s Party-Pheu Thai coalition, likely with smaller partners, would offer the clearest path towards a constitutional rewrite aimed at reducing veto power. Both parties back a “yes” vote: the People’s Party explicitly seeks to curb Senate-linked levers, while Pheu Thai frames the referendum as the first step towards drafting a genuine “people’s constitution”.
Yet two risks stand out. First, residual mistrust lingers from 2023, when Pheu Thai broke ranks with the People’s Party’s reformist bloc to form a government with pro-establishment parties. This could strain coalition discipline. Second, external pushback is plausible through institutional chokepoints: the constitutional court could narrow the rewrite’s procedural scope, the election commission could pursue disqualification or dissolution cases, and the Senate could use Section 256 thresholds to dilute or block enabling amendments.
A Bhumjaithai-Pheu Thai coalition, also plausible with smaller allies, may point towards a different trajectory. Here, if the referendum passes, it is more likely to translate into a bounded process, with tighter limits on scope, sequencing and who gets to draft the new constitution.
If Thailand is to move beyond electoral autocracy, February’s vote must do more than reshuffle parties in parliament

Several status quo-leaning parties have framed constitutional change as a partial amendment under clear red lines. Bhumjaithai and the Kla Tham Party, for instance, support retaining institutional brakes such as the Senate’s one-third veto on future amendments. Under such a settlement, constitutional change might still proceed, but it is more likely to be narrow in scope and leave the reach of the veto structure intact.
In sum, if Thailand is to move beyond electoral autocracy, February’s vote must do more than reshuffle parties in parliament. Understandably, the referendum could fall short. That said, even a “yes” vote could be limited by procedural design and coalition tactics that narrow or delay institutional reform.
The lasting significance of the vote, therefore, will be whether it yields a government that reflects the voters’ choice and a drafting process with enough force to change the balance between electoral mandates and unelected veto power. Otherwise, the vote will still matter, but mainly as a record of voter preferences set against constraints that remain largely unchanged.
Treethep Srisa-nga is a PhD student in Political Science at the University of Florida and the managing editor of the Newsletter for the American Political Science Association’s (APSA) Comparative Politics Section. This article was first published by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s commentary website fulcrum.sg.


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Thailand

Thailand’s election will pass verdict on the architecture of elite control

Pedestrians walk past campaign posters in Bangkok on Tuesday ahead of Thailand’s general election. Photo: AFP

Pheu Thai Party’s prime ministerial candidate Yodchanan Wongsawat sits beside former Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra while campaigning in Bangkok on January 23. Photo: AFP

People ride scooters by electoral campaign posters in Bangkok on Wednesday ahead of Thailand’s general election. Photo: Reuters

People’s Party supporters holds signs at a rally in Bangkok last month. Photo: AFP

Thailand election: who are the PM contenders vying to lead the nation?

From left: Anutin Charnvirakul, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut and Yodchanan Wongsawat during an event in Bangkok on January 12. The three are among prime ministerial candidates in Thailand’s coming election. Photo: AFP

Leader of People’s Party and prime ministerial candidate Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut attends an election campaign in Bangkok, Thailand, on Wednesday. Photo: AP

Thai caretaker prime minister and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul campaigns for a general election at Chinatown in Bangkok, Thailand, on January 20. Photo: EPA

Pheu Thai party prime ministerial candidate Yodchanan Wongsawat during an election campaign in Bangkok, Thailand, on January 23. Photo: AP

Democrat Party’s leader and prime ministerial candidate Abhisit Vejjajiva greets people during an election campaign in Bangkok, Thailand, on January 10. Photo: EPA

Thammanat Prompao (centre) talks to the media in 2019. Thammanat is among the prime ministerial candidates for Thailand’s coming election on February 8. Photo: EPA-EFE

Thai comeback kid Pita urges ‘decisive’ People’s Party win to break establishment’s grip

Former party leader Pita Limjaroenrat speaks on stage during a People’s Party election campaign event in Bangkok on Sunday. Photo: EPA

Pita Limjaroenrat poses with supporters during a People’s Party campaign rally on Sunday ahead of Thailand’s general election. Photo: Reuters

A People’s Party supporter wears a headband depicting prime ministerial candidate Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut at a campaign rally on Sunday. Photo: AFP

As Thailand election looms, voters seek national reset to end decade of decline

Thailand’s prime minister and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul (second from right) greets people at a market during an election campaign at Chinatown in Bangkok on January 20. Photo: AFP

Srettha Thavisin, then prime minister of Thailand, stands in front of an infographic depicting the landbridge to bypass the Malacca Strait in 2023. Photo: Facebook/Srettha Thavisin

A person buys food at a small bakery stall in a shopping centre in Bangkok. Economic growth for 2026 could be between 1.5 per cent and 1.7 per cent, according to Thailand’s central bank. Photo: EPA

Thai caretaker prime minister and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul greets voters at a street food stall during an election campaign at Chinatown in Bangkok, Thailand, on January 20. Photo: EPA

People take an escalator at Mo Chit skytrain station in Bangkok on Wednesday. Analysts say the “pandemonium” of Thailand’s lost years has severely damaged the economy and divided the Thai people. Photo: AFP

Former Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat with supporters during a general election campaign rally of the People’s Party in Bangkok on January 25. Photo: Reuters

Pheu Thai’s prime minister candidate Yodchanan Wongsawat raises his fist during an election campaign in Bangkok on January 23. Photo: AP

People’s Party supporters cheer during a campaign rally ahead of the general election, in Bangkok on January 25. Photo: AFP

Leader of People’s Party and prime minister candidate Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut attends an election campaign in Bangkok, Thailand, on Wednesday. Photo: AP

A street vendor waits for customers in Bangkok. Thailand goes to the polls on February 8 for yet another government. Photo: EPA

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After court rulings removed successive PMs, this election tests whether a popular mandate can finally survive the state’s veto traps


After court rulings removed successive PMs, this election tests whether a popular mandate can finally survive the state’s veto traps.


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Paetongtarn Shinawatra

Srettha Thavisin

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.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}After court rulings removed successive PMs, this election tests whether a popular mandate can finally survive the state’s veto traps

After court rulings removed successive PMs, this election tests whether a popular mandate can finally survive the state’s veto traps