Opinion6 pillars for peace to end wars in Asia

For a time, it seemed that economic interdependence had put an end to war between states. When Canadian psychologist Steven Pinker declared in 2011 that such wars had “almost vanished”, many believed the arc of history was bending towards peace. But from Ukraine to the recent Thailand-Cambodia conflict, the resurgence of wars in recent years has shown that we must look deeper at what sustains harmony between nations – and why some regions are so much better at it than others. Southeast Asia, though seen today as a relative oasis of stability and economic dynamism, does not enjoy the same freedom from conflict as North America, for example, where the prospect of war between neighbours is virtually unthinkable. Scholars have long argued that economic integration, particularly through trade, lessens the risk of conflict. There is truth in this. Since World War II, trade has indeed proven a powerful force for peace and prosperity. But in a rapidly changing world, trade alone is no longer enough to guarantee security. New, more robust mechanisms are needed to ensure that tensions between nuclear powers, especially, are contained. There is cause for hope. The European Union and North America are living proof that deep integration can bring lasting calm. Realistically, there is little to no prospect of armed conflict between the states that make up these regions. But can the rest of the world replicate this? And if so, how? Six pillars for integrated peace One answer lies in the integration of supply chains. More than just conduits for goods, integrated supply chains bind countries, industries and people together in ways that make conflict not just costly, but virtually unthinkable. They create shared interests, fuel growth and promote the kind of interdependence that supports both security and human development. To that end, here are six pillars by which supply chains can become the bedrock of regional peace. 1. Cross-border investment When nations invest in each other, even in potential rivals, they become stakeholders in one another’s success. Post-war Japanese investment in Southeast Asia helped transform enmities into partnerships. Similarly, Chinese capital flowing into Vietnam in the 1990s built bridges after decades of hostility. Such cross-border foreign direct investment commits countries to dialogue and diplomacy, not discord. 2. Talent flows and labour mobility The EU’s Schengen Agreement did more than erase borders; it enabled the free movement of labour and talent. Former adversaries like France and Germany now share both markets and citizens. This flow of people deepens connections, raises living standards and reduces the likelihood of conflict. Southeast Asia could benefit enormously from a comparable arrangement to enhance talent flows across borders. 3. Technology sharing Technology has often been a bridge between nations. US and European firms sharing know-how fuelled China’s ascendance in the automotive industry, to the benefit of all parties. Today, American multinationals are deeply reliant on Chinese intermediates – a reality that may yet constrain the escalation of US-China tensions. Technology sharing creates mutual dependencies that can outlast diplomatic rifts. 4. Diversified supply chains Relying on a single source is risky in a volatile world. Geographical diversity, such as Apple’s network of chipmakers, assemblers and suppliers across Asia, the US and beyond, spreads risk and binds multiple countries’ fortunes together. When prosperity is shared, the costs of conflict rise for all, providing a powerful deterrent to war. 5. Interconnected infrastructure Shared infrastructure – whether physical, like high-speed railways, or digital, such as cross-border fibre networks – builds trust, lowers tensions and raises the costs of disruption. In recent years, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have invested heavily in such projects, linking cities and economies across the region and into China and India. These connections can act as vital pathways to promote regional peace. 6. Regulatory alignment Trade agreements that harmonise laws and standards do more than facilitate commerce – they create shared frameworks for cooperation. The Asean-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is one such example. Regulatory alignment is crucial for managing disputes before they escalate, especially in this era of artificial intelligence and rapid technological change. Integrated supply chains are not a panacea, but they offer a practical way to diffuse power and reduce incentives for aggression. As current global institutions falter, this form of economic interdependence may be our best hope for stability. Isolation, by contrast, offers only the illusion of security. The war in Ukraine has shown that states outside such networks are freer to act aggressively and less constrained by shared interests. Had Russia been more deeply integrated into Europe’s supply chains, the calculus for launching a war of aggression would have been starkly different. Peace, ultimately, does not come from grand summits or lofty speeches. It is built in ports and factories Peace, ultimately, does not come from grand summits or lofty speeches. It is built in ports and factories, in fibre lines and joint ventures, in the daily business of making things together. Well-integrated supply chains, therefore, can serve as both economic engines and quiet architects of stability. As Southeast Asia confronts the risks of renewed conflict, and as the world seeks models for more sustainable peace, it is time to recognise that our prosperity and our security are profoundly intertwined. Cameron Johnson is a Senior Partner at Shanghai-based Tidal Wave Solutions who specialises in supply chains and has lectured at NYU Shanghai. This article was first published by the Asian Peace Programme (APP), an initiative to promote peace in Asia, housed in the NUS Asia Research Institute.

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Safety in isolation is a dangerous illusion. Our best hope for lasting peace lies in shared infrastructure, talent flows and investment

Safety in isolation is a dangerous illusion. Our best hope for lasting peace lies in shared infrastructure, talent flows and investment