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Ian Storey

Should Southeast Asian countries be worried that North Korea has sent up to 10,000 troops to Russia?
Clearly, they should, for in today’s globalised world, a change in the security dynamics of one region can have deleterious effects on other regions.
The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia underscores this reality, as it has not only raised tensions on the Korean peninsula but also threatens to prolong the Russia-Ukraine war. Neither bodes well for Southeast Asia and Asean’s efforts to promote peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
How has North Korea’s monumental decision to become a cobelligerent in the war affected security in Northeast Asia?
South Korea, the United States and Japan have all expressed alarm that in return for North Korean military help (which in addition to troops also includes short-range ballistic missiles and millions of artillery shells), Russia is supplying the impoverished regime with food, oil and financial assistance.

More worryingly, Moscow appears to be providing technological know-how to advance Pyongyang’s missile, satellite and submarine programmes. North Korean troops could also gain valuable combat experience if they are sent into battle against Ukrainian forces.
Russia’s quid pro quo not only violates United Nations sanctions, it also bolsters North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, allowing it to threaten South Korea, Japan and potentially the US mainland.
China has feigned ambivalence about closer Russia-North Korea ties, but it is discomfited by its loss of influence over Pyongyang to Moscow and the prospects of a reinvigorated North Korean nuclear weapons programme. Nevertheless, it is hard to see Beijing putting pressure on either country to reduce their military cooperation, further straining US-China relations.
As a result, tensions between the US, South Korea and Japan on the one hand and North Korea, Russia and China on the other are trending upwards.
Except for Pyongyang, these countries are all key dialogue partners of Asean, and friction among them could weaken Asian-led security forums such as the East Asia Summit and the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus.
Asean has long been concerned about the situation on the Korean peninsula, and the potential for war between the two Koreas, a conflict that would almost certainly drag in the US and China in support of their respective allies.
At the Asean Summit in Laos last month, for instance, the chairman’s final statement expressed “grave concern” at North Korea’s recent missile tests. The statement insisted Pyongyang fully comply with United Nations resolutions and called on all parties to work towards the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.


Russia’s support for North Korea is a triple whammy in that it undermines all of Asean’s desired outcomes: it escalates tensions on the Korean peninsula, violates UN sanctions and undercuts nuclear non-proliferation efforts.
Stability on the Korean peninsula aside, the arrival of North Korean troops in Russia threatens to worsen and prolong the conflict in Ukraine.
Ten thousand men is not a huge number, and the inexperienced troops could be quickly churned up in the Russian meat grinder that is claiming an estimated 1,000 Russian troops per day. Some of the North Korean troops may take the opportunity to desert.
But North Korea has pledged to support Russia until it achieves victory in Ukraine, and could send many more troops.
If the North Koreans do start fighting Ukrainian forces, Seoul has warned that “all possible scenarios are under consideration”, including arming Ukraine with lethal weaponry. The US has said it might lift restrictions on Kyiv using US-supplied arms to launch attacks inside Russia, and that the North Koreans would be legitimate targets.
A prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine war would not be good for Southeast Asia. The conflict has already disrupted global supply chains and increased food and energy prices, all of which have raised the cost of living in the region.

According to ISEAS’ 2024 annual survey of elite opinion, the war in Europe remains the region’s third most serious geopolitical concern.
Asean and its 10 member states have so far remained tight-lipped about the arrival of North Korean troops in Russia.
Their silence reinforces the impression that regional states have grown weary of the conflict and do not want it to stand in the way of improved relations with Russia and joining Brics. Moreover, the conflict in Gaza has had much more resonance in Southeast Asia, particularly in the Muslim-majority states.
Given the implications for regional security, Asean should do something, but as always, its options are limited.
Clearly, it is too much to expect the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to suspend its dialogue partnership with Russia, or disinvite North Korea from the Asean Regional Forum. Both options would be deemed too confrontational by the member states.
The usual practice of Asean issuing a statement of “grave concern” and calling for the withdrawal of North Korean troops would have no impact on decision-making in Moscow and Pyongyang, who believe they are in an existential struggle with the US and its allies.
Indonesia has good relations with both Russia and North Korea, but mediation efforts by its new globe-trotting president, Prabowo Subianto, look like a non-starter. His Ukraine peace plan – which called for a demilitarised zone and a UN referendum – fell flat.

Any attempt by Asean to persuade Beijing to use its influence with Moscow and Pyongyang to end their military relationship also seems destined to fail. China has no interest in seeing Russia lose in Ukraine.
But there are at least two practical measures Southeast Asian countries could take.
The first would be to tighten their enforcement of UN sanctions against North Korea, which some regional states have not always strictly observed in the past.
The second would be to join efforts by the US, Japan, South Korea and several European countries to establish a multilateral UN sanctions monitoring team, which Russia nixed earlier this year.
By helping strengthen the UN sanctions regime against North Korea, Southeast Asia could send a signal to both Pyongyang and Moscow that it disapproves of their military cooperation against Ukraine and the negative fallout on security in the Indo-Pacific.
Ian Storey is a Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. This article was first published by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s commentary website fulcrum.sg.


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Asean

Why Southeast Asia should worry about North Korean troops in Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un toast during a reception in Pyongyang on June 19. Photo: TNS

A television in Seoul shows an image of soldiers believed to be from North Korea in Russia last month. Photo: AFP

North Korea’s flag waves at country’s embassy building in Moscow on October 30. Photo: EPA-EFE

Southeast Asian leaders with Chinese Premier Li Qiang (fifth from right) and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol (sixth from left) at an Asean summit in Laos. Photo: Xinhua

Russian troops’ frustrations at North Korean fighters caught on intercepted communications

North Korean soldiers during a mass rally in Pyongyang. Photo: AFP/Getty Images/TNS

A handout from South Korean intelligence purportedly showing North Korean personnel at a Russian military facility. Photo: AFP

Members of the Korean Vietnam War Veterans Association protest in Seoul against the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia. Photo: AP

North Korean troops willing to ‘fight and die’ for Russia alter Indo-Pacific security balance

North Korea has reportedly sent thousands of troops to Russia for possible deployment in Ukraine. Photo: AP

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (right) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ride a car in Pyongyang in June. Photo: KCNA via Reuters

Ukraine war: what does North Korea gain by sending troops to Russia?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend a welcoming ceremony in Pyongyang. Photo: dpa

A TV broadcast in Seoul showing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visiting a missile base at a location in North Korea. Photo: dpa

A North Korean representative speaking in the UN General Assembly. North Korea has denied sending troops to Russia to help Moscow fight Ukraine. Photo: AFP

Is North Korea’s latest missile test a distraction from troops supply to Russia?

An image released by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Thursday shows the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile during a test-fire at an undisclosed location in the country. Photo: KCNA via KNS / AFP

A man watches a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of a North Korean missile test, at a railway station in Seoul on Thursday. Photo: AFP

North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un (left) visiting a strategic missile base at an undisclosed location in the country. Photo: KCNA via KNS / AFP

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The arrival of North Korean troops in Russia threatens to worsen and prolong the conflict in Ukraine, which would not be good for Southeast Asia


The arrival of North Korean troops in Russia threatens to worsen and prolong the conflict in Ukraine, which would not be good for Southeast Asia.


North Korea

Russia

South Korea

Ukraine war

Korean peninsula

War and conflict

Diplomacy

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


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.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The arrival of North Korean troops in Russia threatens to worsen and prolong the conflict in Ukraine, which would not be good for Southeast Asia

The arrival of North Korean troops in Russia threatens to worsen and prolong the conflict in Ukraine, which would not be good for Southeast Asia