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Pou Sothirak

Eoeng Kanhara

As next month’s US presidential election approaches, a pivotal question arises: what will the next administration mean for its partnership with Asean?
The contours of US engagement with Southeast Asia are ripe for examination, especially in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and Washington’s relentless rivalry with Beijing, which compels it to reinforce its regional presence and partnerships.
The foundation of US regional policy, largely driven by the current Indo-Pacific Strategy, is unlikely to shift dramatically. What is likely to change, however, is the way that this strategy is implemented – with a stronger emphasis on direct engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its member states.
Such pivot would aim to ensure that the US maintains its pre-eminent position as a Pacific power, safeguarding security and stability across the Indo-Pacific.
During the US-Asean Summit in 2022, Washington reaffirmed its commitment to securing its strategic interests in the region, requiring it to play a larger role with Asean. The Southeast Asian bloc has garnered bipartisan support in the US, suggesting that increased engagement is on the horizon.

Last year’s summit saw Vice-President Kamala Harris reiterate America’s enduring commitment to Asean’s centrality, while Joe Biden’s administration has proposed an unprecedented US$1.2 billion in funds for the region’s economic development and security assistance, plus an additional US$90 million aimed at strengthening Asean institutions. This investment seeks to transform Asean from a largely symbolic organisation into a robust entity capable of countering China’s expanding influence.
Washington perceives China’s footprint as a challenge to its vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, which emphasises a rules-based international order, free trade, freedom of navigation and the rule of law.
By consolidating a reliable partnership with Asean, the US aspires to position itself as a stabilising force in the region, promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth. The aim is clear: to bolster US-Asean security and economic interests that mutually benefit both sides, while countering China’s growing influence – not just militarily, but also as a leading trading partner and source of investment for much of Asean.
For individual member states, the US is likely to intensify its engagement and increasingly focus on bilateral partnerships, particularly where strategic interests align. As long as these nations retain their value to the US, Washington will not shy away from enhancing defence cooperation, especially in areas such as advanced military training, equipment transfers, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and surveillance systems.
The US has already provided military assistance to key countries – namely the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand – aimed at modernising their armed forces. This includes funding, military education and training. From 2021 to last year, these countries alongside other Southeast Asian nations took part in more joint military exercises with the US than with any other major power, according to the Lowy Institute.


Notably, the US and the Philippines have deepened their military collaboration amid rising tensions in the South China Sea, agreeing last year to establish four new bases under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Arrangement.
However, the US’ approach to other Asean members has been more limited, with military assistance largely constrained. An intriguing case is Cambodia, on which the US has imposed an arms embargo in response to China’s growing influence and deteriorating human rights conditions. Myanmar, following its military coup in 2021, has also faced significant sanctions from Washington.
Despite increasing economic dependence on China, many Asean states are pursuing closer ties with the US. A significant portion of the region believes in America’s political will to provide global leadership and views its military presence as a stabilising asset. According to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute “State of Southeast Asia” report, confidence in the US as a strategic partner rose from 34.9 per cent in 2020 to 55.4 per cent in 2021, while perceptions of China have grown increasingly negative.
Individual Asean members have also taken steps to maintain economic ties with the US, taking part in initiatives such as Washington’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, launched in May 2022. This initiative stands as the only economic platform the US has in the region following the abandonment of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The next US president, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, cannot afford to cede influence in Southeast Asia to China, as such a move would undermine US interests and its Indo-Pacific strategy. Intensifying competition with Beijing necessitates sustained US engagement in the region, particularly with Asean members.
The next administration is likely to uphold its commitment to the Indo-Pacific strategy, fostering closer ties with Asean through enhanced public diplomacy and promoting military, economic, and educational programmes.
Emphasising American values such as democracy and human rights, the US is also likely to establish comprehensive security partnerships with key regional countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam, all while supporting Asean’s centrality in the face of rising US-China rivalry.
It would also be helpful if Washington recognises Asean for its intrinsic merits, rather than merely as a pawn in its strategy to counter China.
In this complex geopolitical landscape, the next chapter of US-Asean relations will be critical

While Asean is keen to cooperate with the US, it values its strategic autonomy and seeks to navigate its relationship with both superpowers. The regional bloc looks to China not only as an economic powerhouse but also as a partner that can meet its national development needs.
Asean’s preference for a stable and mutually beneficial relationship with Beijing underscores its desire for a cooperative rather than confrontational dynamic between the US and China.
In this complex geopolitical landscape, the next chapter of US-Asean relations will be critical. The choices made now will shape the region’s future and determine the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific for years to come.
Pou Sothirak is Distinguished Senior Adviser to the Cambodian Centre for Regional Studies (CCRS) and Eoeng Kanhara is a Research Associate at the Cambodian Centre for Regional Studies


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Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins next month, a renewed focus on Asean will be essential for lasting stability amid China tensions


Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins next month, a renewed focus on Asean will be essential for lasting stability amid China tensions.


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.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins next month, a renewed focus on Asean will be essential for lasting stability amid China tensions

Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins next month, a renewed focus on Asean will be essential for lasting stability amid China tensions