The coming US presidential election is a matter of deep interest around the world as there is hardly any region where American leadership does not have an impact. The United States has a big stake in the ongoing Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars. US-China relations have deteriorated and tensions in the Indo-Pacific region have increased over issues such as the South China Sea dispute, cross-straits relations, trade and tech. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense rivalry that has consequences for Indo-Pacific countries.
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US allies in the Indo-Pacific have begun preparing for a potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency. Although the US commitment towards the Indo-Pacific is not expected to recede, if Trump is reelected, Washington’s blueprint for its engagement with the region might change compared with that under President Joe Biden’s administration.
The Indo-Pacific is vital for US supremacy and as such, Trump is unlikely to drastically alter the existing structure that undergirds relations between the US and the region. Nonetheless, how Trump implements his strategies for the region is of concern for US allies, especially when he adopts an “America First” stance in foreign policy.
US President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the border village of Panmunjom in the demilitarised zone in 2019. Photo: AP
A rekindling of the friendship between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would have an impact on the security of the Korean peninsula. Kim could unveil new proposals for North Korea’s nuclear programme while any Washington-Pyongyang rapprochement could sideline Seoul. There could be changes to the US-South Korea nuclear consultative group and the regular military exercises involving troops from both countries. Trump has said US allies should contribute more to the security provided by American troops and Seoul has to factor this in the event of his return to the Oval Office.
Japan, another key US ally in the Indo-Pacific, would be concerned about Trump’s call, particularly over Taiwan’s security. He could pressure Tokyo to increase its defence spending and funding to maintain the presence of US troops in Japan.
Another area for Japan is the impact on trade under a Trump presidency. Trump has warned about imposing a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff on worldwide imports and 60 per cent tariffs on China’s goods. With the huge presence of Japanese companies in China and the importance of the US market, Tokyo would be concerned that a Trump administration would not hesitate to use tariffs as a trade weapon.
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As such, China is unlikely to receive a warm welcome under Trump. Apart from possible new tariffs slapped on Chinese goods, Beijing is expected to closely monitor any Trump commitment towards Taiwan and the American military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
